--- title: "Raw case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Raw ($178.13) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 16 items with odds, observed 112.57% over 180 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/raw rendered: 2026-11-11T13:27Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Raw](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/raw) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Raw A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/raw?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/raw?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/raw) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/raw?window=all) Price · $178.13 · 356 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $160.31 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · 112.57% · 180 openings, odds method Variance · 3.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 11 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 75.9% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 112.57% ±27.33 180 openings 30 days · 112.57% ±27.33 180 openings since tracking started · 112.57% ±27.33 180 openings 84.5% 112.5% 140.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/raw?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/raw?window=7d) | 180 | 112.57% ±27.3 | +1.6σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/raw) | 180 | 112.57% ±27.3 | +1.6σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/raw?window=all) | 180 | 112.57% ±27.3 | +1.6σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 180 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Howl (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-howl-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $10.9K 21,888 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Sticker \| Reason Gaming \| Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-reason-gaming-katowice-2014) | 1 in 1,000 | $3,097 6,194 coins | 1.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Autotronic (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-autotronic-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $1,750 3,500 coins | 5.5% | 2 | 0.9 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 100 | $1,543 3,086 coins | 9.6% | 2 | 1.8 | 1.11× | | [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 80 | $1,129 2,258 coins | 8.8% | 1 | 2.3 | 0.44× | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Kimono (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-kimono-field-tested) | 1 in 80 | $1,080 2,161 coins | 8.4% | 3 | 2.3 | 1.33× | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 80 | $1,035 2,071 coins | 8.1% | 1 | 2.3 | 0.44× | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 80 | $949 1,897 coins | 7.4% | 7 | 2.3 | 3.11× | | [★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · Covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 40 | $607 1,215 coins | 9.5% | 7 | 4.5 | 1.56× | | [★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 40 | $558 1,117 coins | 8.7% | 4 | 4.5 | 0.89× | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Night (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-night-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $527 1,055 coins | 8.2% | 3 | 4.5 | 0.67× | | [AUG \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $290 579 coins | 9.0% | 12 | 9.0 | 1.33× | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $253 506 coins | 7.9% | 16 | 9.0 | 1.78× | | [M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-bullet-rain-factory-new) | 15.0% | $37.64 75.28 coins | 3.5% | 29 | 27.0 | 1.07× | | [MAC-10 \| Propaganda (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-propaganda-factory-new) | 15.0% | $27.81 55.62 coins | 2.6% | 21 | 27.0 | 0.78× | | [MP7 \| Bloodsport (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-bloodsport-factory-new) | 45.9% | $2.67 5.34 coins | 0.8% | 72 | 82.6 | 0.87× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Butterfly Knife | Autotronic (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-autotronic-factory-new) Hidden $178 356 coins $1,750 3,500 coins 9.83x 2026-11-08 21:41 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Autotronic (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-autotronic-factory-new) Hidden $178 356 coins $1,750 3,500 coins 9.83x 2026-11-08 20:22 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $178 356 coins $1,543 3,086 coins 8.66x 2026-11-08 20:23 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $178 356 coins $1,543 3,086 coins 8.66x 2026-11-07 22:56 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $178 356 coins $1,129 2,258 coins 6.34x 2026-11-08 20:05 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-kimono-field-tested) Hidden $178 356 coins $1,080 2,161 coins 6.07x 2026-11-08 21:41 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-kimono-field-tested) Hidden $178 356 coins $1,080 2,161 coins 6.07x 2026-11-08 21:40 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-kimono-field-tested) Hidden $178 356 coins $1,080 2,161 coins 6.07x 2026-11-08 11:53 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $178 356 coins $1,035 2,071 coins 5.81x 2026-11-08 20:22 UTC [★ Huntsman Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) [natasja](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/natasja) $178 356 coins $949 1,897 coins 5.33x 2026-11-08 21:40 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=raw) [MP7 | Bloodsport (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-bloodsport-factory-new) Hidden $178 356 coins $2.67 5.34 coins 0.01x 2026-11-08 21:41 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Autotronic (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-autotronic-factory-new) Hidden $178 356 coins $1,750 3,500 coins 9.83x 2026-11-08 21:41 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · Covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $178 356 coins $607 1,215 coins 3.41x 2026-11-08 21:41 UTC [MP7 | Bloodsport (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-bloodsport-factory-new) Hidden $178 356 coins $2.67 5.34 coins 0.01x 2026-11-08 21:41 UTC [MAC-10 | Propaganda (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-propaganda-factory-new) Hidden $178 356 coins $27.81 55.62 coins 0.16x 2026-11-08 21:41 UTC [AUG | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-hot-rod-factory-new) [natasja](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/natasja) $178 356 coins $290 579 coins 1.63x 2026-11-08 21:41 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-kimono-field-tested) Hidden $178 356 coins $1,080 2,161 coins 6.07x 2026-11-08 21:41 UTC [★ Ursus Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) Hidden $178 356 coins $253 506 coins 1.42x 2026-11-08 21:41 UTC [MP7 | Bloodsport (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-bloodsport-factory-new) Hidden $178 356 coins $2.67 5.34 coins 0.01x 2026-11-08 21:41 UTC [MP7 | Bloodsport (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-bloodsport-factory-new) Hidden $178 356 coins $2.67 5.34 coins 0.01x 2026-11-08 21:41 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $178 | 90.00% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed contraband 0.0% high 0.1% covert knife 0.5% #EB4B4B 2.3% covert 70.9% extraordinary 1.3% Covert 2.5% epic 2.5% mil spec 5.0% classified 15.0% best hit $1,750 (9.83x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt