---
title: "Rebel case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Rebel ($6.23) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.01% from 16 items with odds, observed 99.40% over 2,240 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/rebel
rendered: 2026-11-11T16:57Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Rebel](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/rebel)

# [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Rebel

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/rebel?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/rebel?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/rebel) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/rebel?window=all)

Price · $6.23 · 12.46 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.01% · EV $5.61 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 99.40% · 2,240 openings, odds method

Variance · 15.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 17 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 64.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 96.61% ±40.87 352 openings

7 days · 96.18% ±18.47 1,724 openings

30 days · 99.40% ±16.20 2,240 openings

since tracking started · 99.40% ±16.20 2,240 openings

55.0% 96.5% 138.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/rebel?window=24h) | 352 | 96.61% ±40.9 | +0.3σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/rebel?window=7d) | 1,724 | 96.18% ±18.5 | +0.7σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/rebel) | 2,240 | 99.40% ±16.2 | +1.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/rebel?window=all) | 2,240 | 99.40% ±16.2 | +1.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,240 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-wasteland-rebel-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $818 1,635 coins | 7.3% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.89× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Jaguar (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-jaguar-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $387 775 coins | 6.9% | 4 | 2.2 | 1.79× |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-factory-new) | 1 in 667 | $157 314 coins | 4.2% | 4 | 3.4 | 1.19× |
| [AK-47 \| Black Laminate (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-black-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $115 230 coins | 4.1% | 4 | 4.5 | 0.89× |
| [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $51.39 103 coins | 4.6% | 13 | 11.2 | 1.16× |
| [AK-47 \| Head Shot (Factory New) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-head-shot-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $47.87 95.74 coins | 8.5% | 28 | 22.4 | 1.25× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $39.19 78.38 coins | 7.0% | 25 | 22.4 | 1.12× |
| [AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-red-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $26.89 53.78 coins | 4.8% | 28 | 22.4 | 1.25× |
| [AK-47 \| Cartel (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-cartel-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $14.60 29.19 coins | 5.2% | 39 | 44.8 | 0.87× |
| [AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-rat-rod-factory-new) | 10.0% | $7.25 14.5 coins | 12.9% | 228 | 224.0 | 1.02× |
| [AK-47 \| Emerald Pinstripe (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-emerald-pinstripe-factory-new) | 10.0% | $6.93 13.86 coins | 12.4% | 219 | 224.0 | 0.98× |
| [AK-47 \| Safety Net (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net-factory-new) | 10.0% | $6.27 12.54 coins | 11.2% | 256 | 224.0 | 1.14× |
| [AK-47 \| Safari Mesh (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-factory-new) | 14.0% | $1.87 3.73 coins | 4.7% | 304 | 313.6 | 0.97× |
| [AK-47 \| Slate (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-field-tested) | 14.0% | $1.07 2.13 coins | 2.7% | 302 | 313.6 | 0.96× |
| [AK-47 \| Uncharted (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-uncharted-factory-new) | 18.0% | $0.57 1.14 coins | 1.8% | 388 | 403.2 | 0.96× |
| [AK-47 \| Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-field-tested) | 18.0% | $0.56 1.11 coins | 1.8% | 397 | 403.2 | 0.98× |

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[StatTrak™ AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-wasteland-rebel-factory-new) Hidden $6.23 12.46 coins $818 1,635 coins 131.2x 2026-11-04 11:10 UTC

[StatTrak™ AK-47 | Jaguar (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-jaguar-factory-new) Hidden $6.23 12.46 coins $387 775 coins 62.19x 2026-11-06 17:42 UTC

[StatTrak™ AK-47 | Jaguar (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-jaguar-factory-new) [EliteLynx4233](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/EliteLynx4233) $6.23 12.46 coins $387 775 coins 62.19x 2026-11-06 17:29 UTC

[StatTrak™ AK-47 | Jaguar (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-jaguar-factory-new) Hidden $6.23 12.46 coins $387 775 coins 62.19x 2026-11-05 11:05 UTC

[StatTrak™ AK-47 | Jaguar (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-jaguar-factory-new) Hidden $6.23 12.46 coins $387 775 coins 62.19x 2026-11-04 10:21 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=rebel)

[AK-47 | Emerald Pinstripe (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-emerald-pinstripe-factory-new) Hidden $6.23 12.46 coins $6.93 13.86 coins 1.11x 2026-11-11 16:50 UTC

[AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-factory-new) Hidden $6.23 12.46 coins $1.87 3.73 coins 0.30x 2026-11-11 16:50 UTC

[AK-47 | Uncharted (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-uncharted-factory-new) Hidden $6.23 12.46 coins $0.57 1.14 coins 0.09x 2026-11-11 16:50 UTC

[AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-factory-new) Hidden $6.23 12.46 coins $1.87 3.73 coins 0.30x 2026-11-11 16:50 UTC

[AK-47 | Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-field-tested) Hidden $6.23 12.46 coins $0.56 1.11 coins 0.09x 2026-11-11 16:50 UTC

[AK-47 | Nightwish (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-factory-new) [justplayed](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/justplayed) $6.23 12.46 coins $51.39 103 coins 8.25x 2026-11-11 16:50 UTC

[AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-factory-new) Hidden $6.23 12.46 coins $1.87 3.73 coins 0.30x 2026-11-11 15:05 UTC

[AK-47 | Rat Rod (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-rat-rod-factory-new) Hidden $6.23 12.46 coins $7.25 14.5 coins 1.16x 2026-11-11 15:05 UTC

[AK-47 | Rat Rod (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-rat-rod-factory-new) Hidden $6.23 12.46 coins $7.25 14.5 coins 1.16x 2026-11-11 15:05 UTC

[AK-47 | Slate (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-field-tested) Hidden $6.23 12.46 coins $1.07 2.13 coins 0.17x 2026-11-11 15:05 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $6.23 | 90.01% | 16 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 1.8% mil spec 0.2% Ancient 1.0% classified 3.0% restricted 20.0% Mythical 24.0% industrial 14.0% Rare 36.0% best hit $818 (131.2x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.01 on average: an expected loss of $9.99 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt