--- title: "Recovery case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Recovery ($0.03) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 76.97% from 3 items with odds, observed 68.04% over 8,917 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/recovery rendered: 2026-11-11T19:59Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Recovery](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/recovery) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Recovery A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/recovery?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/recovery?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/recovery) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/recovery?window=all) Price · $0.03 · 0.06 coins Advertised RTP · 76.97% · EV $0.02 from 3 items Observed RTP, 30d · 68.04% · 8,917 openings, odds method Variance · 2623.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 10,000 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 100.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 2,944 openings · below min 7 days · 7,679 openings · below min 30 days · 8,917 openings · below min since tracking started · 8,917 openings · below min -0.5% 178.8% 358.0% **Small sample.** 8,917 openings and 0.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/recovery?window=24h) | 2,944 | 172.27% ±185.0 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/recovery?window=7d) | 7,679 | 76.32% ±114.6 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/recovery) | 8,917 | 68.04% ±106.3 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/recovery?window=all) | 8,917 | 68.04% ±106.3 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 3 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 8,917 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $137 275 coins | 59.5% | 1 | 0.9 | — | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 25,000 | $109 217 coins | 18.8% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [SG 553 \| Aloha (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-aloha-field-tested) | 100.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 21.7% | 8,916 | 8915.8 | 1.00× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=recovery) [SG 553 | Aloha (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-aloha-field-tested) Hidden $0.03 0.06 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.17x 2026-11-11 18:29 UTC [SG 553 | Aloha (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-aloha-field-tested) Hidden $0.03 0.06 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.17x 2026-11-11 18:29 UTC [SG 553 | Aloha (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-aloha-field-tested) [TIKTOKDIevas](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/TIKTOKDIevas) $0.03 0.06 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.17x 2026-11-11 18:29 UTC [SG 553 | Aloha (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-aloha-field-tested) Hidden $0.03 0.06 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.17x 2026-11-11 18:29 UTC [SG 553 | Aloha (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-aloha-field-tested) Hidden $0.03 0.06 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.17x 2026-11-11 18:29 UTC [SG 553 | Aloha (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-aloha-field-tested) Hidden $0.03 0.06 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.17x 2026-11-11 18:29 UTC [SG 553 | Aloha (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-aloha-field-tested) Hidden $0.03 0.06 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.17x 2026-11-11 18:29 UTC [SG 553 | Aloha (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-aloha-field-tested) Hidden $0.03 0.06 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.17x 2026-11-11 18:29 UTC [SG 553 | Aloha (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-aloha-field-tested) Hidden $0.03 0.06 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.17x 2026-11-11 18:11 UTC [SG 553 | Aloha (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-aloha-field-tested) Hidden $0.03 0.06 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.17x 2026-11-11 18:11 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $0.03 | 76.97% | 3 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Covert 0.0% blue 100.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 77.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $76.97 on average: an expected loss of $23.03 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt