--- title: "Red Flag case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Red Flag ($24.88) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 16 items with odds, observed 91.59% over 396 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/red-flag rendered: 2026-11-11T13:25Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Red Flag](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/red-flag) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Red Flag A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/red-flag?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/red-flag?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/red-flag) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/red-flag?window=all) Price · $24.88 · 49.76 coins Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $22.39 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · 91.59% · 396 openings, odds method Variance · 9.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 24 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 91.9% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 43 openings · below min 7 days · 96.25% ±31.94 354 openings 30 days · 91.59% ±30.20 396 openings since tracking started · 91.59% ±30.20 396 openings 6.5% 98.8% 191.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/red-flag?window=24h) | 43 | 98.93% ±91.7 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/red-flag?window=7d) | 354 | 96.25% ±31.9 | +0.4σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/red-flag) | 396 | 91.59% ±30.2 | +0.1σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/red-flag?window=all) | 396 | 91.59% ±30.2 | +0.1σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 400 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-red-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $809 1,619 coins | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $701 1,401 coins | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Rezan the Red (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-rezan-the-red-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $667 1,334 coins | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · Covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 10,000 | $607 1,215 coins | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 10,000 | $558 1,117 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Souvenir M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-well-worn) | 1 in 4,000 | $556 1,113 coins | 0.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Souvenir M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-battle-scarred) | 1 in 3,333 | $501 1,002 coins | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) StatTrak · knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ursus-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $292 584 coins | 13.0% | 2 | 4.0 | 0.50× | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Autotronic (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-autotronic-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $292 583 coins | 13.0% | 2 | 4.0 | 0.50× | | [AUG \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $290 579 coins | 12.9% | 4 | 4.0 | 1.00× | | [★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-survival-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $280 560 coins | 12.5% | 2 | 4.0 | 0.50× | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $257 515 coins | 11.5% | 5 | 4.0 | 1.25× | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Autotronic (Factory New) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-autotronic-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $256 513 coins | 11.4% | 6 | 4.0 | 1.50× | | [★ Classic Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $256 512 coins | 11.4% | 8 | 4.0 | 2.00× | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $253 506 coins | 11.3% | 6 | 4.0 | 1.50× | | [P2000 \| Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) | 91.9% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 365 | 367.6 | 0.99× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=red-flag) [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $24.88 49.76 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 21:52 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) [Moon1025](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Moon1025) $24.88 49.76 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 21:52 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $24.88 49.76 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 21:46 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) [Moon1025](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Moon1025) $24.88 49.76 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 21:46 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $24.88 49.76 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 21:00 UTC [★ Classic Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) Hidden $24.88 49.76 coins $256 512 coins 10.30x 2026-11-10 21:00 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) [Moon1025](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Moon1025) $24.88 49.76 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 21:00 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $24.88 49.76 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 20:45 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $24.88 49.76 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 20:45 UTC [★ Classic Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) Hidden $24.88 49.76 coins $256 512 coins 10.30x 2026-11-10 20:45 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $24.88 | 89.99% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 0.0% Immortal 1.0% extraordinary 0.0% Covert 0.1% covert 3.0% other 1.0% sunny 1.0% mil spec 1.0% covert knife 1.0% #4b69ff 91.9% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt