--- title: "Red room case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Red room ($31.81) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 10 items with odds, observed 79.64% over 3,714 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/red-room rendered: 2026-11-11T14:09Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Red room](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/red-room) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Red room A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/red-room?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/red-room?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/red-room) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/red-room?window=all) Price · $31.81 · 63.61 coins Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $28.62 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 79.64% · 3,714 openings, odds method Variance · 57.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 250 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 97.4% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 436 openings · below min 7 days · 79.28% ±25.64 3,368 openings 30 days · 79.64% ±24.42 3,714 openings since tracking started · 79.64% ±24.42 3,714 openings -0.5% 57.5% 115.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/red-room?window=24h) | 436 | 43.63% ±71.3 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/red-room?window=7d) | 3,368 | 79.28% ±25.6 | −0.8σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/red-room) | 3,714 | 79.64% ±24.4 | −0.8σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/red-room?window=all) | 3,714 | 79.64% ±24.4 | −0.8σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,714 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Karambit \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $4,209 8,418 coins | 29.4% | 4 | 7.4 | 0.54× | | [Sticker \| Reason Gaming \| Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-reason-gaming-katowice-2014) | 1 in 500 | $3,097 6,194 coins | 21.6% | 8 | 7.4 | 1.08× | | [Souvenir M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $501 1,002 coins | 17.5% | 42 | 37.1 | 1.13× | | [★ Nomad Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 83 | $404 808 coins | 16.9% | 40 | 44.6 | 0.90× | | [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $16.67 33.34 coins | 2.9% | 189 | 185.7 | 1.02× | | [XM1014 \| Tranquility (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-tranquility-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $15.21 30.42 coins | 2.7% | 172 | 185.7 | 0.93× | | [SSG 08 \| Turbo Peek (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-turbo-peek-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $10.25 20.5 coins | 2.9% | 292 | 297.1 | 0.98× | | [P250 \| Muertos (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-minimal-wear) | 23.4% | $3.21 6.41 coins | 2.6% | 886 | 869.1 | 1.02× | | [Dual Berettas \| Panther (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-panther-factory-new) | 28.0% | $2.01 4.02 coins | 2.0% | 1,017 | 1039.9 | 0.98× | | [XM1014 \| Seasons (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-seasons-factory-new) | 28.0% | $1.52 3.04 coins | 1.5% | 1,064 | 1039.9 | 1.02× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Karambit | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $31.81 63.61 coins $4,209 8,418 coins 132.3x 2026-11-09 05:49 UTC [★ Karambit | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $31.81 63.61 coins $4,209 8,418 coins 132.3x 2026-11-07 20:22 UTC [★ Karambit | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $31.81 63.61 coins $4,209 8,418 coins 132.3x 2026-11-07 20:19 UTC [★ Karambit | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $31.81 63.61 coins $4,209 8,418 coins 132.3x 2026-11-03 11:36 UTC [Sticker | Reason Gaming | Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-reason-gaming-katowice-2014) Hidden $31.81 63.61 coins $3,097 6,194 coins 97.37x 2026-11-10 00:28 UTC [Sticker | Reason Gaming | Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-reason-gaming-katowice-2014) Hidden $31.81 63.61 coins $3,097 6,194 coins 97.37x 2026-11-09 00:54 UTC [Sticker | Reason Gaming | Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-reason-gaming-katowice-2014) Hidden $31.81 63.61 coins $3,097 6,194 coins 97.37x 2026-11-08 04:56 UTC [Sticker | Reason Gaming | Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-reason-gaming-katowice-2014) Hidden $31.81 63.61 coins $3,097 6,194 coins 97.37x 2026-11-07 20:07 UTC [Sticker | Reason Gaming | Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-reason-gaming-katowice-2014) Hidden $31.81 63.61 coins $3,097 6,194 coins 97.37x 2026-11-07 19:59 UTC [Sticker | Reason Gaming | Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-reason-gaming-katowice-2014) Hidden $31.81 63.61 coins $3,097 6,194 coins 97.37x 2026-11-07 19:53 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=red-room) [Dual Berettas | Panther (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-panther-factory-new) Hidden $31.81 63.61 coins $2.01 4.02 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC [Dual Berettas | Panther (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-panther-factory-new) Hidden $31.81 63.61 coins $2.01 4.02 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC [XM1014 | Seasons (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-seasons-factory-new) Hidden $31.81 63.61 coins $1.52 3.04 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC [P250 | Muertos (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-minimal-wear) Hidden $31.81 63.61 coins $3.21 6.41 coins 0.10x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC [P250 | Muertos (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-minimal-wear) Hidden $31.81 63.61 coins $3.21 6.41 coins 0.10x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC [P250 | Muertos (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-minimal-wear) Hidden $31.81 63.61 coins $3.21 6.41 coins 0.10x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC [XM1014 | Seasons (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-seasons-factory-new) Hidden $31.81 63.61 coins $1.52 3.04 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC [Dual Berettas | Panther (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-panther-factory-new) [nigxoo](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/nigxoo) $31.81 63.61 coins $2.01 4.02 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC [XM1014 | Seasons (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-seasons-factory-new) Hidden $31.81 63.61 coins $1.52 3.04 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 10:01 UTC [XM1014 | Seasons (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-seasons-factory-new) Hidden $31.81 63.61 coins $1.52 3.04 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 10:01 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $31.81 | 89.99% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 1.4% high 0.2% Covert 1.0% classified 41.4% mil spec 28.0% Mythical 28.0% best hit $4,209 (132.3x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt