--- title: "Retribution case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Retribution ($44.61) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 15 items with odds, observed 88.07% over 56 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/retribution rendered: 2026-11-11T15:49Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Retribution](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/retribution) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Retribution A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/retribution?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/retribution?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/retribution) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/retribution?window=all) Price · $44.61 · 89.21 coins Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $40.14 from 15 items Observed RTP, 30d · 88.07% · 56 openings, odds method Variance · 0.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 33.2% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 54.3% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 44 openings · below min 30 days · 56 openings · below min since tracking started · 56 openings · below min 67.5% 85.8% 104.0% **Small sample.** 56 openings and 18.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/retribution?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/retribution?window=7d) | 44 | 85.20% ±17.1 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/retribution) | 56 | 88.07% ±15.1 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/retribution?window=all) | 56 | 88.07% ±15.1 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 56 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 2,000 | $571 1,141 coins | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 1,333 | $384 767 coins | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Cool Mint (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-cool-mint-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $276 551 coins | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-autotronic-field-tested) | 1 in 500 | $130 260 coins | 0.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Jade (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-jade-field-tested) | 1 in 133 | $83.53 167 coins | 1.6% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [SCAR-20 \| Brass (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-brass-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $74.30 149 coins | 3.7% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× | | [Souvenir SG 553 \| Waves Perforated (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-sg-553-waves-perforated-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $68.22 136 coins | 5.1% | 3 | 1.7 | 1.79× | | [Desert Eagle \| Golden Koi (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-golden-koi-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $60.29 121 coins | 7.5% | 3 | 2.8 | 1.07× | | [MAG-7 \| Hazard (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-hazard-factory-new) | 10.0% | $56.31 113 coins | 14.0% | 7 | 5.6 | 1.25× | | [Souvenir Five-SeveN \| Fall Hazard (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-five-seven-fall-hazard-battle-scarred) | 12.0% | $51.69 103 coins | 15.5% | 9 | 6.7 | 1.34× | | [Desert Eagle \| Pilot (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-pilot-field-tested) | 12.5% | $48.62 97.23 coins | 15.1% | 7 | 7.0 | 1.00× | | [AUG \| Sand Storm (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-sand-storm-factory-new) | 13.0% | $42.99 85.97 coins | 13.9% | 3 | 7.3 | 0.41× | | [USP-S \| The Traitor (Factory New) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-factory-new) | 13.0% | $34.57 69.13 coins | 11.2% | 7 | 7.3 | 0.96× | | [M4A4 \| In Living Color (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-in-living-color-factory-new) | 14.0% | $23.56 47.11 coins | 8.2% | 9 | 7.8 | 1.15× | | [AWP \| POP AWP (Factory New) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pop-awp-factory-new) | 14.3% | $3.98 7.95 coins | 1.4% | 8 | 8.0 | 1.00× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=retribution) [Desert Eagle | Pilot (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-pilot-field-tested) [Foxo16](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Foxo16) $44.61 89.21 coins $48.62 97.23 coins 1.09x 2026-11-09 21:53 UTC [Souvenir SG 553 | Waves Perforated (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-sg-553-waves-perforated-factory-new) Hidden $44.61 89.21 coins $68.22 136 coins 1.53x 2026-11-09 21:53 UTC [M4A4 | In Living Color (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-in-living-color-factory-new) Hidden $44.61 89.21 coins $23.56 47.11 coins 0.53x 2026-11-09 21:53 UTC [USP-S | The Traitor (Factory New) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-factory-new) Hidden $44.61 89.21 coins $34.57 69.13 coins 0.77x 2026-11-09 21:53 UTC [M4A4 | In Living Color (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-in-living-color-factory-new) Hidden $44.61 89.21 coins $23.56 47.11 coins 0.53x 2026-11-09 21:53 UTC [Souvenir Five-SeveN | Fall Hazard (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-five-seven-fall-hazard-battle-scarred) Hidden $44.61 89.21 coins $51.69 103 coins 1.16x 2026-11-09 21:53 UTC [USP-S | The Traitor (Factory New) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-factory-new) Hidden $44.61 89.21 coins $34.57 69.13 coins 0.77x 2026-11-09 21:53 UTC [AWP | POP AWP (Factory New) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pop-awp-factory-new) Hidden $44.61 89.21 coins $3.98 7.95 coins 0.09x 2026-11-09 21:53 UTC [USP-S | The Traitor (Factory New) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-factory-new) Hidden $44.61 89.21 coins $34.57 69.13 coins 0.77x 2026-11-09 01:33 UTC [Souvenir Five-SeveN | Fall Hazard (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-five-seven-fall-hazard-battle-scarred) Hidden $44.61 89.21 coins $51.69 103 coins 1.16x 2026-11-09 01:33 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $44.61 | 89.99% | 15 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 19.1% extraordinary 0.9% #ffd700 0.2% Mil Spec Grade 2.0% Consumer Grade 3.0% mil spec 10.0% Classified 12.0% restricted 25.5% Ancient 13.0% Restricted 14.3% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt