--- title: "Riches Box case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Riches Box ($49.57) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 8 items with odds, observed 53.03% over 240 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/riches-box rendered: 2026-11-11T19:07Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Riches Box](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/riches-box) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Riches Box A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/riches-box?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/riches-box?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/riches-box) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/riches-box?window=all) Price · $49.57 · 99.13 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $44.61 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 53.03% · 240 openings, odds method Variance · 15.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 36 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 95.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 8 openings · below min 7 days · 174 openings · below min 30 days · 53.03% ±50.52 240 openings since tracking started · 53.03% ±50.52 240 openings -0.5% 138.5% 277.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/riches-box?window=24h) | 8 | 0.01% ±276.7 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/riches-box?window=7d) | 174 | 73.14% ±59.3 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/riches-box) | 240 | 53.03% ±50.5 | −1.4σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/riches-box?window=all) | 240 | 53.03% ±50.5 | −1.4σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 240 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $1,241 2,481 coins | 13.9% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.83× | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 133 | $1,037 2,074 coins | 17.4% | 0 | 1.8 | 0.00× | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 133 | $984 1,967 coins | 16.5% | 2 | 1.8 | 1.11× | | [AWP \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 133 | $884 1,767 coins | 14.9% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.56× | | [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) StatTrak · knife · Covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 133 | $771 1,543 coins | 13.0% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.56× | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Bright Water (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-bright-water-factory-new) | 1 in 133 | $743 1,487 coins | 12.5% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.56× | | [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 133 | $701 1,401 coins | 11.8% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.56× | | [P2000 \| Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) | 95.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 233 | 228.0 | 1.02× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Ultraviolet (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-ultraviolet-factory-new) [iMadyyyy](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/iMadyyyy) $49.57 99.13 coins $1,241 2,481 coins 25.03x 2026-11-06 00:43 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Ultraviolet (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-ultraviolet-factory-new) Hidden $49.57 99.13 coins $984 1,967 coins 19.85x 2026-11-09 23:36 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Ultraviolet (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-ultraviolet-factory-new) [BG2x](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/BG2x) $49.57 99.13 coins $984 1,967 coins 19.85x 2026-11-08 15:34 UTC [AWP | Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) Hidden $49.57 99.13 coins $884 1,767 coins 17.83x 2026-11-08 15:15 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) StatTrak · knife · Covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) Hidden $49.57 99.13 coins $771 1,543 coins 15.56x 2026-11-06 00:43 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Bright Water (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-bright-water-factory-new) Hidden $49.57 99.13 coins $743 1,487 coins 15.00x 2026-11-08 15:10 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Slaughter (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-slaughter-factory-new) [BG2x](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/BG2x) $49.57 99.13 coins $701 1,401 coins 14.14x 2026-11-08 15:19 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=riches-box) [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $49.57 99.13 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 21:24 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $49.57 99.13 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 21:24 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $49.57 99.13 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 21:24 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $49.57 99.13 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 21:24 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $49.57 99.13 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 21:24 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $49.57 99.13 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 21:24 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $49.57 99.13 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 21:24 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) [Moon1025](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Moon1025) $49.57 99.13 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 21:24 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $49.57 99.13 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-09 23:36 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $49.57 99.13 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-09 23:36 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $49.57 | 90.00% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Covert 2.0% covert 2.3% Immortal 0.8% #4b69ff 95.0% best hit $1,241 (25.03x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt