--- title: "Rifle Reserve case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Rifle Reserve ($13.15) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 24 items with odds, observed 82.79% over 4,757 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/rifle-reserve rendered: 2026-11-11T22:01Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Rifle Reserve](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/rifle-reserve) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Rifle Reserve A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/rifle-reserve?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/rifle-reserve?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/rifle-reserve) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/rifle-reserve?window=all) Price · $13.15 · 26.29 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $11.83 from 24 items Observed RTP, 30d · 82.79% · 4,757 openings, odds method Variance · 46.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 45 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 88.8% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 213 openings · below min 7 days · 83.02% ±24.13 3,060 openings 30 days · 82.79% ±19.36 4,757 openings since tracking started · 82.79% ±19.36 4,757 openings -0.5% 82.5% 165.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/rifle-reserve?window=24h) | 213 | 73.34% ±91.5 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/rifle-reserve?window=7d) | 3,060 | 83.02% ±24.1 | −0.6σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/rifle-reserve) | 4,757 | 82.79% ±19.4 | −0.7σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/rifle-reserve?window=all) | 4,757 | 82.79% ±19.4 | −0.7σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 24 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,757 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Howl (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-howl-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $10.9K 21,888 coins | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Souvenir M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-factory-new) | 1 in 50,000 | $6,389 12,778 coins | 1.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Souvenir AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-gold-arabesque-factory-new) | 1 in 50,000 | $6,181 12,362 coins | 1.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [M4A4 \| Howl (Factory New) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $4,761 9,523 coins | 2.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-fire-serpent-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $3,948 7,896 coins | 3.3% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $3,126 6,252 coins | 2.6% | 1 | 0.5 | — | | [Souvenir M4A1-S \| Nitro (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-nitro-factory-new) | 1 in 1,429 | $564 1,128 coins | 3.3% | 4 | 3.3 | 1.20× | | [Souvenir AK-47 \| Panthera onca (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-panthera-onca-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $525 1,051 coins | 4.4% | 5 | 4.8 | 1.05× | | [Souvenir Galil AR \| Cerberus (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-galil-ar-cerberus-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $277 555 coins | 11.7% | 20 | 23.8 | 0.84× | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| The Emperor (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-the-emperor-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $250 500 coins | 10.6% | 20 | 23.8 | 0.84× | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Hellfire (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-hellfire-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $113 226 coins | 9.6% | 49 | 47.6 | 1.03× | | [SG 553 \| Integrale (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-integrale-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $106 212 coins | 9.0% | 49 | 47.6 | 1.03× | | [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Decimator (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-decimator-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $62.94 126 coins | 10.6% | 99 | 95.1 | 1.04× | | [M4A4 \| Royal Paladin (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-royal-paladin-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $61.60 123 coins | 10.4% | 83 | 95.1 | 0.87× | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-buzz-kill-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $56.30 113 coins | 9.5% | 98 | 95.1 | 1.03× | | [StatTrak™ AUG \| Momentum (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-aug-momentum-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $52.23 104 coins | 8.8% | 97 | 95.1 | 1.02× | | [AUG \| Amber Slipstream (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-amber-slipstream-factory-new) | 10.0% | $0.23 0.47 coins | 0.2% | 483 | 475.7 | 1.02× | | [AUG \| Storm (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-storm-factory-new) | 10.0% | $0.18 0.37 coins | 0.2% | 472 | 475.7 | 0.99× | | [FAMAS \| Meow 36 (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meow-36-factory-new) | 10.0% | $0.18 0.36 coins | 0.2% | 493 | 475.7 | 1.04× | | [SG 553 \| Aloha (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-aloha-factory-new) | 10.0% | $0.14 0.29 coins | 0.1% | 479 | 475.7 | 1.01× | | [SG 553 \| Ol' Rusty (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-ol-rusty-factory-new) | 10.0% | $0.14 0.28 coins | 0.1% | 488 | 475.7 | 1.03× | | [Galil AR \| Destroyer (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-destroyer-factory-new) | 10.0% | $0.10 0.21 coins | 0.1% | 463 | 475.7 | 0.97× | | [Galil AR \| VariCamo (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-varicamo-factory-new) | 14.4% | $0.07 0.15 coins | 0.1% | 670 | 685.0 | 0.98× | | [AUG \| Contractor (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-contractor-factory-new) | 14.4% | $0.04 0.07 coins | 0.0% | 684 | 685.0 | 1.00× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 20:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-factory-new) Hidden $13.15 26.29 coins $3,126 6,252 coins 237.8x 2026-11-05 22:58 UTC [Souvenir M4A1-S | Nitro (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-nitro-factory-new) Hidden $13.15 26.29 coins $564 1,128 coins 42.90x 2026-11-10 18:13 UTC [Souvenir M4A1-S | Nitro (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-nitro-factory-new) Hidden $13.15 26.29 coins $564 1,128 coins 42.90x 2026-11-05 11:37 UTC [Souvenir M4A1-S | Nitro (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-nitro-factory-new) Hidden $13.15 26.29 coins $564 1,128 coins 42.90x 2026-11-04 10:53 UTC [Souvenir M4A1-S | Nitro (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-nitro-factory-new) Hidden $13.15 26.29 coins $564 1,128 coins 42.90x 2026-11-03 19:03 UTC [Souvenir AK-47 | Panthera onca (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-panthera-onca-factory-new) Hidden $13.15 26.29 coins $525 1,051 coins 39.97x 2026-11-10 18:41 UTC [Souvenir AK-47 | Panthera onca (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-panthera-onca-factory-new) Hidden $13.15 26.29 coins $525 1,051 coins 39.97x 2026-11-05 19:30 UTC [Souvenir AK-47 | Panthera onca (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-panthera-onca-factory-new) Hidden $13.15 26.29 coins $525 1,051 coins 39.97x 2026-11-04 20:08 UTC [Souvenir AK-47 | Panthera onca (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-panthera-onca-factory-new) Hidden $13.15 26.29 coins $525 1,051 coins 39.97x 2026-11-04 17:38 UTC [Souvenir AK-47 | Panthera onca (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-panthera-onca-factory-new) Hidden $13.15 26.29 coins $525 1,051 coins 39.97x 2026-11-04 12:06 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=rifle-reserve) [Galil AR | Destroyer (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-destroyer-factory-new) Hidden $13.15 26.29 coins $0.10 0.21 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 21:51 UTC [Galil AR | VariCamo (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-varicamo-factory-new) Hidden $13.15 26.29 coins $0.07 0.15 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 21:51 UTC [AUG | Contractor (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-contractor-factory-new) Hidden $13.15 26.29 coins $0.04 0.07 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 21:51 UTC [AUG | Amber Slipstream (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-amber-slipstream-factory-new) Hidden $13.15 26.29 coins $0.23 0.47 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 21:51 UTC [Galil AR | VariCamo (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-varicamo-factory-new) Hidden $13.15 26.29 coins $0.07 0.15 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 21:51 UTC [SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-ol-rusty-factory-new) Hidden $13.15 26.29 coins $0.14 0.28 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 21:51 UTC [AUG | Storm (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-storm-factory-new) Hidden $13.15 26.29 coins $0.18 0.37 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 21:51 UTC [Galil AR | Destroyer (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-destroyer-factory-new) [IronSnipe5217](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/IronSnipe5217) $13.15 26.29 coins $0.10 0.21 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 21:51 UTC [FAMAS | Meow 36 (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meow-36-factory-new) Hidden $13.15 26.29 coins $0.18 0.36 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 21:49 UTC [SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-ol-rusty-factory-new) [cherrylea](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/cherrylea) $13.15 26.29 coins $0.14 0.28 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 21:49 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $13.15 | 90.00% | 24 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed contraband 0.0% covert 2.5% legendary 0.0% restricted 0.6% classified 6.1% Covert 2.0% mil spec 10.0% consumer 10.0% Rare 20.0% blue 10.0% #4b69ff 10.0% Uncommon 14.4% Common 14.4% best hit $3,126 (237.8x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt