--- title: "Risk Runner case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Risk Runner ($6.84) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.97% from 12 items with odds, observed 90.06% over 1,703 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/risk-runner rendered: 2026-11-11T15:16Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Risk Runner](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/risk-runner) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Risk Runner A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/risk-runner?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/risk-runner?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/risk-runner) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/risk-runner?window=all) Price · $6.84 · 13.68 coins Advertised RTP · 89.97% · EV $6.15 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 90.06% · 1,703 openings, odds method Variance · 13.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 19 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 89.8% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 70.27% ±52.98 189 openings 7 days · 92.66% ±18.79 1,503 openings 30 days · 90.06% ±17.65 1,703 openings since tracking started · 90.06% ±17.65 1,703 openings 16.5% 70.3% 124.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/risk-runner?window=24h) | 189 | 70.27% ±53.0 | −0.7σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/risk-runner?window=7d) | 1,503 | 92.66% ±18.8 | +0.3σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/risk-runner) | 1,703 | 90.06% ±17.7 | +0.0σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/risk-runner?window=all) | 1,703 | 90.06% ±17.7 | +0.0σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,703 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · gold · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 10,000 | $740 1,479 coins | 1.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Oni Taiji (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-oni-taiji-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $721 1,442 coins | 1.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 10,000 | $658 1,317 coins | 1.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 4,000 | $571 1,141 coins | 2.3% | 1 | 0.4 | — | | [Charm \| That's Bananas charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-thats-bananas) | 1 in 2,000 | $333 667 coins | 2.7% | 1 | 0.9 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Night (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-night-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $333 666 coins | 2.7% | 1 | 0.9 | — | | [★ Gut Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 80 | $112 223 coins | 22.7% | 19 | 21.3 | 0.89× | | [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 75 | $72.32 145 coins | 15.6% | 22 | 22.6 | 0.97× | | [Glock-18 \| Pink DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-pink-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $56.28 113 coins | 22.9% | 47 | 42.6 | 1.10× | | [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $26.67 53.34 coins | 21.7% | 87 | 85.2 | 1.02× | | [M249 \| Blizzard Marbleized (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-blizzard-marbleized-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $4.57 9.13 coins | 5.9% | 125 | 136.2 | 0.92× | | [P2000 \| Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) | 81.8% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.1% | 1,400 | 1392.5 | 1.01× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $6.84 13.68 coins $571 1,141 coins 83.41x 2026-11-07 19:34 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=risk-runner) [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $6.84 13.68 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:14 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $6.84 13.68 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:14 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $6.84 13.68 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:14 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $6.84 13.68 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:14 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $6.84 13.68 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:14 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $6.84 13.68 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:14 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $6.84 13.68 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:14 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) [BG2x](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/BG2x) $6.84 13.68 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:14 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $6.84 13.68 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:12 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $6.84 13.68 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:12 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $6.84 | 89.97% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed gold 0.0% covert 1.3% uncommon 0.1% mil spec 1.3% restricted 2.5% classified 5.0% industrial 8.0% #4b69ff 81.8% best hit $571 (83.41x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.97 on average: an expected loss of $10.03 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt