--- title: "Risky Business case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Risky Business ($39.67) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 9 items with odds, observed 75.42% over 629 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/risky-business rendered: 2026-11-12T00:52Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Risky Business](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/risky-business) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Risky Business A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/risky-business?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/risky-business?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/risky-business) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/risky-business?window=all) Price · $39.67 · 79.34 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $35.70 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 75.42% · 629 openings, odds method Variance · 22.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 50 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 98.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 63.81% ±57.96 256 openings 7 days · 74.35% ±38.47 581 openings 30 days · 75.42% ±36.97 629 openings since tracking started · 75.42% ±36.97 629 openings 5.0% 63.8% 122.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/risky-business?window=24h) | 256 | 63.81% ±58.0 | −0.9σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/risky-business?window=7d) | 581 | 74.35% ±38.5 | −0.8σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/risky-business) | 629 | 75.42% ±37.0 | −0.8σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/risky-business?window=all) | 629 | 75.42% ±37.0 | −0.8σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 629 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Sticker \| Fnatic (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fnatic-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 100 | $1,437 2,874 coins | 40.2% | 3 | 6.3 | 0.48× | | [Sticker \| NiKo (Gold) \| Krakow 2017 sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-niko-gold-krakow-2017) | 1 in 100 | $1,253 2,507 coins | 35.1% | 7 | 6.3 | 1.11× | | [SCAR-20 \| Emerald (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-emerald-factory-new) | 14.0% | $23.26 46.51 coins | 9.1% | 89 | 88.1 | 1.01× | | [Five-SeveN \| Jungle (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-jungle-factory-new) | 14.0% | $17.64 35.28 coins | 6.9% | 97 | 88.1 | 1.10× | | [M4A4 \| Temukau (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-field-tested) | 14.0% | $13.44 26.87 coins | 5.3% | 90 | 88.1 | 1.02× | | [FAMAS \| Pulse (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-pulse-factory-new) | 14.0% | $4.27 8.53 coins | 1.7% | 89 | 88.1 | 1.01× | | [MAG-7 \| Hard Water (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-hard-water-factory-new) | 14.0% | $2.61 5.22 coins | 1.0% | 88 | 88.1 | 1.00× | | [P2000 \| Grassland (Field-Tested) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-grassland-field-tested) | 14.0% | $1.09 2.18 coins | 0.4% | 78 | 88.1 | 0.89× | | [Negev \| Power Loader (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-power-loader-field-tested) | 14.0% | $0.57 1.14 coins | 0.2% | 88 | 88.1 | 1.00× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 20:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Sticker | Fnatic (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fnatic-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $39.67 79.34 coins $1,437 2,874 coins 36.22x 2026-11-11 14:47 UTC [Sticker | Fnatic (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fnatic-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $39.67 79.34 coins $1,437 2,874 coins 36.22x 2026-11-11 14:37 UTC [Sticker | Fnatic (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fnatic-holo-katowice-2014) [BG2x](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/BG2x) $39.67 79.34 coins $1,437 2,874 coins 36.22x 2026-11-08 15:06 UTC [Sticker | NiKo (Gold) | Krakow 2017 sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-niko-gold-krakow-2017) Hidden $39.67 79.34 coins $1,253 2,507 coins 31.59x 2026-11-11 14:58 UTC [Sticker | NiKo (Gold) | Krakow 2017 sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-niko-gold-krakow-2017) Hidden $39.67 79.34 coins $1,253 2,507 coins 31.59x 2026-11-10 20:18 UTC [Sticker | NiKo (Gold) | Krakow 2017 sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-niko-gold-krakow-2017) Hidden $39.67 79.34 coins $1,253 2,507 coins 31.59x 2026-11-10 16:13 UTC [Sticker | NiKo (Gold) | Krakow 2017 sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-niko-gold-krakow-2017) [BG2x](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/BG2x) $39.67 79.34 coins $1,253 2,507 coins 31.59x 2026-11-08 15:34 UTC [Sticker | NiKo (Gold) | Krakow 2017 sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-niko-gold-krakow-2017) Hidden $39.67 79.34 coins $1,253 2,507 coins 31.59x 2026-11-06 05:59 UTC [Sticker | NiKo (Gold) | Krakow 2017 sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-niko-gold-krakow-2017) Hidden $39.67 79.34 coins $1,253 2,507 coins 31.59x 2026-11-05 07:40 UTC [Sticker | NiKo (Gold) | Krakow 2017 sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-niko-gold-krakow-2017) Hidden $39.67 79.34 coins $1,253 2,507 coins 31.59x 2026-11-03 19:48 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=risky-business) [SCAR-20 | Emerald (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-emerald-factory-new) [cherrylea](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/cherrylea) $39.67 79.34 coins $23.26 46.51 coins 0.59x 2026-11-11 23:09 UTC [MAG-7 | Hard Water (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-hard-water-factory-new) Hidden $39.67 79.34 coins $2.61 5.22 coins 0.07x 2026-11-11 23:09 UTC [MAG-7 | Hard Water (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-hard-water-factory-new) Hidden $39.67 79.34 coins $2.61 5.22 coins 0.07x 2026-11-11 23:09 UTC [Five-SeveN | Jungle (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-jungle-factory-new) Hidden $39.67 79.34 coins $17.64 35.28 coins 0.44x 2026-11-11 23:09 UTC [MAG-7 | Hard Water (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-hard-water-factory-new) Hidden $39.67 79.34 coins $2.61 5.22 coins 0.07x 2026-11-11 23:09 UTC [SCAR-20 | Emerald (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-emerald-factory-new) Hidden $39.67 79.34 coins $23.26 46.51 coins 0.59x 2026-11-11 23:09 UTC [Five-SeveN | Jungle (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-jungle-factory-new) Hidden $39.67 79.34 coins $17.64 35.28 coins 0.44x 2026-11-11 23:09 UTC [MAG-7 | Hard Water (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-hard-water-factory-new) [divaxxdiva](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/divaxxdiva) $39.67 79.34 coins $2.61 5.22 coins 0.07x 2026-11-11 23:09 UTC [FAMAS | Pulse (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-pulse-factory-new) Hidden $39.67 79.34 coins $4.27 8.53 coins 0.11x 2026-11-11 22:24 UTC [P2000 | Grassland (Field-Tested) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-grassland-field-tested) Hidden $39.67 79.34 coins $1.09 2.18 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 22:24 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $39.67 | 90.00% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed remarkable 1.0% other 1.0% restricted 28.0% Consumer Grade 14.0% covert 14.0% mil spec 14.0% Industrial Grade 14.0% violet 14.0% best hit $1,437 (36.22x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt