--- title: "Risky case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Risky ($25.30) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 86.87% over 32 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/risky rendered: 2026-11-11T19:22Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Risky](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/risky) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Risky A case on Chicken.gg, first seen 8 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/risky?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/risky?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/risky) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/risky?window=all) Price · $25.30 · 50.6 coins Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 86.87% · 32 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 7 days · 32 openings · below min 30 days · 32 openings · below min since tracking started · 32 openings · below min -0.5% 128.5% 257.5% **Small sample.** 32 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/risky?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/risky?window=7d) | 32 | 86.87% ±170.0 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/risky) | 32 | 86.87% ±170.0 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/risky?window=all) | 32 | 86.87% ±170.0 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Chicken.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Karambit | Stained (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-stained-factory-new) Hidden $25.30 50.6 coins $702 1,404 coins 27.75x 2026-11-09 05:56 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=risky) [M4A4 | Mainframe (Well-Worn) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-mainframe-well-worn) Hidden $25.30 50.6 coins $0.04 0.07 coins 0.00x 2026-11-09 05:50 UTC [M4A4 | Mainframe (Well-Worn) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-mainframe-well-worn) Hidden $25.30 50.6 coins $0.04 0.07 coins 0.00x 2026-11-09 05:50 UTC [M4A4 | Mainframe (Well-Worn) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-mainframe-well-worn) Hidden $25.30 50.6 coins $0.04 0.07 coins 0.00x 2026-11-09 05:50 UTC [M4A4 | Mainframe (Well-Worn) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-mainframe-well-worn) Hidden $25.30 50.6 coins $0.04 0.07 coins 0.00x 2026-11-09 05:50 UTC [★ Karambit | Stained (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-stained-factory-new) Hidden $25.30 50.6 coins $702 1,404 coins 27.75x 2026-11-09 05:50 UTC [M4A4 | Mainframe (Well-Worn) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-mainframe-well-worn) Hidden $25.30 50.6 coins $0.04 0.07 coins 0.00x 2026-11-09 05:50 UTC [M4A4 | Mainframe (Well-Worn) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-mainframe-well-worn) Hidden $25.30 50.6 coins $0.04 0.07 coins 0.00x 2026-11-09 05:50 UTC [M4A4 | Mainframe (Well-Worn) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-mainframe-well-worn) [wannagambles](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/wannagambles) $25.30 50.6 coins $0.04 0.07 coins 0.00x 2026-11-09 05:50 UTC [M4A4 | Mainframe (Well-Worn) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-mainframe-well-worn) Hidden $25.30 50.6 coins $0.04 0.07 coins 0.00x 2026-11-08 11:30 UTC [M4A4 | Mainframe (Well-Worn) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-mainframe-well-worn) Hidden $25.30 50.6 coins $0.04 0.07 coins 0.00x 2026-11-08 11:30 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $702 (27.75x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 86.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $86.87 on average: an expected loss of $13.13 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt