---
title: "Roger that case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Roger that ($8.83) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.98% from 8 items with odds, observed 79.07% over 2,313 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/roger-that
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:09Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Roger that](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/roger-that)

# [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Roger that

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/roger-that?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/roger-that?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/roger-that) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/roger-that?window=all)

Price · $8.83 · 17.66 coins

Advertised RTP · 89.98% · EV $7.95 from 8 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 79.07% · 2,313 openings, odds method

Variance · 47.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 10.3% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 89.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 63.56% ±126.38 114 openings

7 days · 66.42% ±38.30 1,241 openings

30 days · 79.07% ±28.06 2,313 openings

since tracking started · 79.07% ±28.06 2,313 openings

-0.5% 95.0% 190.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/roger-that?window=24h) | 114 | 63.56% ±126.4 | −0.4σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/roger-that?window=7d) | 1,241 | 66.42% ±38.3 | −1.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/roger-that) | 2,313 | 79.07% ±28.1 | −0.8σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/roger-that?window=all) | 2,313 | 79.07% ±28.1 | −0.8σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,313 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $3,134 6,269 coins | 7.9% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 1,250 | $1,010 2,020 coins | 10.2% | 3 | 1.9 | 1.62× |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 1,111 | $809 1,618 coins | 9.2% | 0 | 2.1 | 0.00× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 909 | $554 1,109 coins | 7.7% | 3 | 2.5 | 1.18× |
| [Nova \| Quick Sand (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-quick-sand-factory-new) | 10.0% | $18.09 36.17 coins | 22.8% | 198 | 231.3 | 0.86× |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-field-tested) | 25.0% | $7.59 15.17 coins | 23.9% | 580 | 578.3 | 1.00× |
| [MP7 \| Olive Plaid (Factory New) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-olive-plaid-factory-new) | 31.0% | $2.55 5.1 coins | 9.9% | 745 | 717.0 | 1.04× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Panther (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-panther-factory-new) | 33.7% | $2.01 4.02 coins | 8.5% | 784 | 779.5 | 1.01× |

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $8.83 17.66 coins $1,010 2,020 coins 114.4x 2026-11-03 05:12 UTC

[★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $8.83 17.66 coins $1,010 2,020 coins 114.4x 2026-11-03 01:48 UTC

[★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $8.83 17.66 coins $1,010 2,020 coins 114.4x 2026-11-03 01:45 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $8.83 17.66 coins $554 1,109 coins 62.77x 2026-11-05 18:30 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $8.83 17.66 coins $554 1,109 coins 62.77x 2026-11-05 07:02 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $8.83 17.66 coins $554 1,109 coins 62.77x 2026-11-03 01:49 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=roger-that)

[M4A1-S | Decimator (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-field-tested) Hidden $8.83 17.66 coins $7.59 15.17 coins 0.86x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC

[MP7 | Olive Plaid (Factory New) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-olive-plaid-factory-new) Hidden $8.83 17.66 coins $2.55 5.1 coins 0.29x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC

[MP7 | Olive Plaid (Factory New) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-olive-plaid-factory-new) Hidden $8.83 17.66 coins $2.55 5.1 coins 0.29x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Panther (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-panther-factory-new) Hidden $8.83 17.66 coins $2.01 4.02 coins 0.23x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC

[MP7 | Olive Plaid (Factory New) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-olive-plaid-factory-new) Hidden $8.83 17.66 coins $2.55 5.1 coins 0.29x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC

[M4A1-S | Decimator (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-field-tested) Hidden $8.83 17.66 coins $7.59 15.17 coins 0.86x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC

[Nova | Quick Sand (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-quick-sand-factory-new) Hidden $8.83 17.66 coins $18.09 36.17 coins 2.05x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC

[MP7 | Olive Plaid (Factory New) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-olive-plaid-factory-new) [BG2x](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/BG2x) $8.83 17.66 coins $2.55 5.1 coins 0.29x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC

[Nova | Quick Sand (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-quick-sand-factory-new) Hidden $8.83 17.66 coins $18.09 36.17 coins 2.05x 2026-11-11 13:18 UTC

[MP7 | Olive Plaid (Factory New) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-olive-plaid-factory-new) Hidden $8.83 17.66 coins $2.55 5.1 coins 0.29x 2026-11-11 13:18 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $8.83 | 89.98% | 8 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.3% Mil Spec Grade 10.0% classified 25.0% #777777 31.0% mil spec 33.7% best hit $1,010 (114.4x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.98 on average: an expected loss of $10.02 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt