---
title: "Roses case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Roses ($120.17) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 16 items with odds, observed 90.39% over 16 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/roses
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:38Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Roses](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/roses)

# [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Roses

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/roses?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/roses?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/roses) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/roses?window=all)

Price · $120.17 · 240 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $108.15 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 90.39% · 16 openings, odds method

Variance · 4.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 11 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 79.9% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 8 openings · below min

30 days · 16 openings · below min

since tracking started · 16 openings · below min

-0.5% 130.0% 260.5%

**Small sample.** 16 openings and 1.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/roses?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/roses?window=7d) | 8 | 116.42% ±143.6 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/roses) | 16 | 90.39% ±101.5 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/roses?window=all) | 16 | 90.39% ±101.5 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 16 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 1,000 | $3,644 7,288 coins | 3.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 333 | $2,150 4,300 coins | 6.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) StatTrak · knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nomad-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 250 | $1,786 3,573 coins | 6.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Web (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $1,548 3,095 coins | 7.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Souvenir AWP \| Desert Hydra (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-battle-scarred) | 1 in 125 | $1,002 2,005 coins | 7.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 100 | $493 986 coins | 4.6% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [Souvenir Glock-18 \| Candy Apple (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-candy-apple-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $424 849 coins | 7.8% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $227 454 coins | 8.4% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $193 386 coins | 8.9% | 2 | 0.8 | — |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $156 312 coins | 8.7% | 2 | 1.0 | — |
| [Souvenir Nova \| Candy Apple (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-nova-candy-apple-factory-new) | 18.0% | $93.07 186 coins | 15.5% | 2 | 2.9 | 0.69× |
| [M4A4 \| Red DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-red-ddpat-factory-new) | 18.0% | $60.88 122 coins | 10.1% | 5 | 2.9 | 1.74× |
| [AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-red-laminate-field-tested) | 19.9% | $26.89 53.78 coins | 4.9% | 2 | 3.2 | 0.63× |
| [SG 553 \| Candy Apple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-candy-apple-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $4.60 9.19 coins | 0.3% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× |
| [P2000 \| Red FragCam (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-red-fragcam-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $1.42 2.83 coins | 0.1% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.78× |
| [MP9 \| Ruby Poison Dart (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-ruby-poison-dart-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $1.28 2.55 coins | 0.1% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.78× |

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=roses)

[★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-web-field-tested) Hidden $120 240 coins $193 386 coins 1.60x 2026-11-09 10:20 UTC

[P2000 | Red FragCam (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-red-fragcam-factory-new) Hidden $120 240 coins $1.42 2.83 coins 0.01x 2026-11-09 10:20 UTC

[Souvenir Nova | Candy Apple (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-nova-candy-apple-factory-new) Hidden $120 240 coins $93.07 186 coins 0.77x 2026-11-09 10:20 UTC

[M4A4 | Red DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-red-ddpat-factory-new) Hidden $120 240 coins $60.88 122 coins 0.51x 2026-11-09 10:20 UTC

[★ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $120 240 coins $493 986 coins 4.10x 2026-11-09 10:20 UTC

[M4A4 | Red DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-red-ddpat-factory-new) Hidden $120 240 coins $60.88 122 coins 0.51x 2026-11-09 10:20 UTC

[M4A4 | Red DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-red-ddpat-factory-new) Hidden $120 240 coins $60.88 122 coins 0.51x 2026-11-09 10:20 UTC

[★ Paracord Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) [Vinnie2524](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Vinnie2524) $120 240 coins $156 312 coins 1.30x 2026-11-09 10:20 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $120 | 90.00% | 16 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 7.9% #EB4B4B 0.3% other 0.4% extraordinary 5.5% mil spec 2.0% restricted 30.0% industrial 26.0% classified 19.9% Mil Spec Grade 8.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt