--- title: "Roulette Drop case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Roulette Drop ($40.92) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 12 items with odds, observed 101.66% over 30 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/roulette-drop rendered: 2026-11-11T13:39Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Roulette Drop](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/roulette-drop) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Roulette Drop A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/roulette-drop?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/roulette-drop?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/roulette-drop) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/roulette-drop?window=all) Price · $40.92 · 81.83 coins Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $36.82 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 101.66% · 30 openings, odds method Variance · 5.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 12 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 76.8% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 6 openings · below min 30 days · 30 openings · below min since tracking started · 30 openings · below min -0.5% 133.8% 268.0% **Small sample.** 30 openings and 2.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/roulette-drop?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/roulette-drop?window=7d) | 6 | 75.07% ±192.4 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/roulette-drop) | 30 | 101.66% ±86.0 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/roulette-drop?window=all) | 30 | 101.66% ±86.0 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 30 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Blood Pressure (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-blood-pressure-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $882 1,765 coins | 2.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 167 | $708 1,416 coins | 11.5% | 1 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-black-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $608 1,215 coins | 16.5% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Black Laminate (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-black-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $239 478 coins | 19.5% | 0 | 0.9 | — | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Black Tie (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-black-tie-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $162 323 coins | 15.4% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× | | [AK-47 \| Black Laminate (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-black-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $115 230 coins | 15.6% | 3 | 1.5 | 2.00× | | [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-factory-new) | 10.0% | $49.36 98.71 coins | 13.4% | 3 | 3.0 | 1.00× | | [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-field-tested) | 10.0% | $13.79 27.57 coins | 3.7% | 1 | 3.0 | 0.33× | | [Nova \| Red Quartz (Minimal Wear) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-red-quartz-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $3.10 6.19 coins | 0.8% | 3 | 3.0 | 1.00× | | [PP-Bizon \| Chemical Green (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-chemical-green-factory-new) | 10.0% | $3.04 6.08 coins | 0.8% | 7 | 3.0 | 2.33× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Red Astor (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-red-astor-factory-new) | 10.0% | $0.81 1.61 coins | 0.2% | 2 | 3.0 | 0.67× | | [G3SG1 \| Green Apple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-green-apple-factory-new) | 36.8% | $0.09 0.17 coins | 0.1% | 10 | 11.0 | 0.91× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Gut Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $40.92 81.83 coins $708 1,416 coins 17.31x 2026-11-03 04:48 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=roulette-drop) [AK-47 | Black Laminate (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-black-laminate-factory-new) Hidden $40.92 81.83 coins $115 230 coins 2.81x 2026-11-08 16:17 UTC [G3SG1 | Green Apple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-green-apple-factory-new) Hidden $40.92 81.83 coins $0.09 0.17 coins 0.00x 2026-11-08 16:17 UTC [Nova | Red Quartz (Minimal Wear) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-red-quartz-minimal-wear) [axel02legmail](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/axel02legmail) $40.92 81.83 coins $3.10 6.19 coins 0.08x 2026-11-08 16:17 UTC [PP-Bizon | Chemical Green (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-chemical-green-factory-new) Hidden $40.92 81.83 coins $3.04 6.08 coins 0.07x 2026-11-07 18:46 UTC [Desert Eagle | Code Red (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-factory-new) Hidden $40.92 81.83 coins $49.36 98.71 coins 1.21x 2026-11-07 18:46 UTC [Desert Eagle | Code Red (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-field-tested) [axel02legmail](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/axel02legmail) $40.92 81.83 coins $13.79 27.57 coins 0.34x 2026-11-07 18:46 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $40.92 | 89.99% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed legendary 0.1% covert 20.6% gold 1.0% covert knife 3.0% extraordinary 3.5% mil spec 5.0% Restricted 10.0% industrial 46.8% restricted 10.0% best hit $708 (17.31x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt