--- title: "Royal Vault case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Royal Vault ($10.18) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.96% from 12 items with odds, observed 80.98% over 16.7K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/royal-vault rendered: 2026-11-11T14:11Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Royal Vault](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/royal-vault) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Royal Vault A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/royal-vault?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/royal-vault?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/royal-vault) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/royal-vault?window=all) Price · $10.18 · 20.36 coins Advertised RTP · 89.96% · EV $9.16 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 80.98% · 16.7K openings, odds method Variance · 106.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 44 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 97.7% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 62.83% ±61.01 1,102 openings 7 days · 84.85% ±17.72 13.1K openings 30 days · 80.98% ±15.67 16.7K openings since tracking started · 80.98% ±15.67 16.7K openings 1.0% 62.8% 124.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/royal-vault?window=24h) | 1,102 | 62.83% ±61.0 | −0.9σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/royal-vault?window=7d) | 13.1K | 84.85% ±17.7 | −0.6σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/royal-vault) | 16.7K | 80.98% ±15.7 | −1.1σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/royal-vault?window=all) | 16.7K | 80.98% ±15.7 | −1.1σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 16.8K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $4,425 8,850 coins | 4.8% | 2 | 1.7 | 1.19× | | [Sticker \| keshandr (Gold) \| Krakow 2017 sticker · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-keshandr-gold-krakow-2017) | 1 in 6,667 | $3,915 7,830 coins | 6.4% | 1 | 2.5 | 0.40× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 5,714 | $2,813 5,625 coins | 5.4% | 2 | 2.9 | 0.68× | | [Sticker \| suNny (Gold) \| Krakow 2017 sticker · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-sunny-gold-krakow-2017) | 1 in 5,714 | $2,528 5,057 coins | 4.8% | 2 | 2.9 | 0.68× | | [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 5,714 | $1,979 3,958 coins | 3.8% | 0 | 2.9 | 0.00× | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Lore (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 5,714 | $1,731 3,462 coins | 3.3% | 2 | 2.9 | 0.68× | | [★ Karambit \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 5,714 | $1,678 3,356 coins | 3.2% | 1 | 2.9 | 0.34× | | [★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 5,714 | $1,543 3,086 coins | 2.9% | 1 | 2.9 | 0.34× | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 4,000 | $1,350 2,701 coins | 3.7% | 3 | 4.2 | 0.72× | | [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 3,333 | $1,293 2,585 coins | 4.2% | 10 | 5.0 | 1.99× | | [Souvenir USP-S \| Royal Blue (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-usp-s-royal-blue-factory-new) | 1 in 48 | $250 500 coins | 57.3% | 364 | 352.1 | 1.03× | | [P2000 \| Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) | 97.7% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.1% | 16,380 | 16384.9 | 1.00× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $10.18 20.36 coins $4,425 8,850 coins 434.7x 2026-11-08 10:56 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) [divaxxdiva](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/divaxxdiva) $10.18 20.36 coins $4,425 8,850 coins 434.7x 2026-11-06 00:04 UTC [Sticker | keshandr (Gold) | Krakow 2017 sticker · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-keshandr-gold-krakow-2017) Hidden $10.18 20.36 coins $3,915 7,830 coins 384.6x 2026-11-06 21:43 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $10.18 20.36 coins $2,813 5,625 coins 276.3x 2026-11-03 05:47 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $10.18 20.36 coins $2,813 5,625 coins 276.3x 2026-11-03 05:22 UTC [Sticker | suNny (Gold) | Krakow 2017 sticker · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-sunny-gold-krakow-2017) Hidden $10.18 20.36 coins $2,528 5,057 coins 248.4x 2026-11-10 04:35 UTC [Sticker | suNny (Gold) | Krakow 2017 sticker · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-sunny-gold-krakow-2017) Hidden $10.18 20.36 coins $2,528 5,057 coins 248.4x 2026-11-06 00:34 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Lore (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-lore-factory-new) Hidden $10.18 20.36 coins $1,731 3,462 coins 170.0x 2026-11-08 18:45 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Lore (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-lore-factory-new) Hidden $10.18 20.36 coins $1,731 3,462 coins 170.0x 2026-11-05 19:21 UTC [★ Karambit | Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-factory-new) Hidden $10.18 20.36 coins $1,678 3,356 coins 164.8x 2026-11-03 05:27 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=royal-vault) [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $10.18 20.36 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:53 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $10.18 20.36 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:53 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $10.18 20.36 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:53 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $10.18 20.36 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:53 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $10.18 20.36 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:53 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) [prudent](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/prudent) $10.18 20.36 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:53 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $10.18 20.36 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:53 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $10.18 20.36 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:53 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $10.18 20.36 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:53 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $10.18 20.36 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:53 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $10.18 | 89.96% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed knifes 0.0% #EB4B4B 0.0% covert 0.1% Extraordinary 0.0% industrial 2.1% #4b69ff 97.7% best hit $4,425 (434.7x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.96 on average: an expected loss of $10.04 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt