--- title: "Rubix case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Rubix ($11.30) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 8 items with odds, observed 81.35% over 166 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/rubix rendered: 2026-11-11T13:28Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Rubix](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/rubix) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Rubix A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/rubix?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/rubix?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/rubix) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/rubix?window=all) Price · $11.30 · 22.6 coins Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $10.17 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 81.35% · 166 openings, odds method Variance · 2.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 14.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 76.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 78.11% ±26.39 160 openings 30 days · 81.35% ±25.91 166 openings since tracking started · 81.35% ±25.91 166 openings 51.0% 79.5% 108.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/rubix?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/rubix?window=7d) | 160 | 78.11% ±26.4 | −0.9σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/rubix) | 166 | 81.35% ±25.9 | −0.7σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/rubix?window=all) | 166 | 81.35% ±25.9 | −0.7σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 166 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Scorched (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-scorched-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $352 705 coins | 3.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Paracord Knife \| Urban Masked (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-urban-masked-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $176 352 coins | 8.7% | 0 | 0.8 | — | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Duct Tape (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-duct-tape-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $45.21 90.41 coins | 15.1% | 11 | 5.6 | 1.95× | | [P2000 \| Silver (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-silver-factory-new) | 10.0% | $25.74 51.47 coins | 25.3% | 10 | 16.6 | 0.60× | | [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-factory-new) | 10.0% | $21.43 42.85 coins | 21.1% | 14 | 16.6 | 0.84× | | [P90 \| Schematic (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-schematic-field-tested) | 10.0% | $8.01 16.02 coins | 7.9% | 18 | 16.6 | 1.08× | | [MP7 \| Gunsmoke (Factory New) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-gunsmoke-factory-new) | 16.0% | $5.23 10.46 coins | 8.2% | 29 | 26.6 | 1.09× | | [Galil AR \| Kami (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-kami-factory-new) | 50.0% | $2.09 4.18 coins | 10.3% | 84 | 83.0 | 1.01× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=rubix) [MP7 | Gunsmoke (Factory New) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-gunsmoke-factory-new) Hidden $11.30 22.6 coins $5.23 10.46 coins 0.46x 2026-11-10 03:46 UTC [Galil AR | Kami (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-kami-factory-new) [DemonDeeeeek](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/DemonDeeeeek) $11.30 22.6 coins $2.09 4.18 coins 0.18x 2026-11-10 03:46 UTC [Galil AR | Kami (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-kami-factory-new) Hidden $11.30 22.6 coins $2.09 4.18 coins 0.18x 2026-11-10 03:46 UTC [P2000 | Silver (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-silver-factory-new) Hidden $11.30 22.6 coins $25.74 51.47 coins 2.28x 2026-11-10 03:46 UTC [Galil AR | Kami (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-kami-factory-new) Hidden $11.30 22.6 coins $2.09 4.18 coins 0.18x 2026-11-10 03:46 UTC [Galil AR | Kami (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-kami-factory-new) Hidden $11.30 22.6 coins $2.09 4.18 coins 0.18x 2026-11-10 03:46 UTC [P90 | Schematic (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-schematic-field-tested) [kvaki](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/kvaki) $11.30 22.6 coins $8.01 16.02 coins 0.71x 2026-11-09 21:42 UTC [P90 | Schematic (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-schematic-field-tested) Hidden $11.30 22.6 coins $8.01 16.02 coins 0.71x 2026-11-09 21:42 UTC [Galil AR | Kami (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-kami-factory-new) Hidden $11.30 22.6 coins $2.09 4.18 coins 0.18x 2026-11-09 21:42 UTC [P90 | Schematic (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-schematic-field-tested) Hidden $11.30 22.6 coins $8.01 16.02 coins 0.71x 2026-11-09 21:42 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $11.30 | 89.99% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 10.1% covert knife 0.5% extraordinary 3.4% mil spec 10.0% milspec 10.0% #87c7ff 16.0% #4b69ff 50.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt