---
title: "Rudolph case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Rudolph ($123.19) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 16 items with odds, observed 96.17% over 16 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/rudolph
rendered: 2026-11-11T20:44Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Rudolph](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/rudolph)

# [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Rudolph

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/rudolph?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/rudolph?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/rudolph) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/rudolph?window=all)

Price · $123.19 · 246 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $110.87 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 96.17% · 16 openings, odds method

Variance · 2.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 29.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 71.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 16 openings · below min

30 days · 16 openings · below min

since tracking started · 16 openings · below min

26.5% 96.2% 166.0%

**Small sample.** 16 openings and 4.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/rudolph?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/rudolph?window=7d) | 16 | 96.17% ±69.1 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/rudolph) | 16 | 96.17% ±69.1 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/rudolph?window=all) | 16 | 96.17% ±69.1 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 32 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Sticker \| ropz (Gold) \| Krakow 2017 sticker · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ropz-gold-krakow-2017) | 1 in 100,000 | $3,290 6,581 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 100,000 | $3,288 6,576 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $3,134 6,269 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $3,126 6,252 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 10,000 | $2,643 5,286 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,271 2,542 coins | 1.1% | 1 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $765 1,530 coins | 6.9% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Stained (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-stained-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $760 1,520 coins | 6.9% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $754 1,507 coins | 6.8% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Urban Masked (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-urban-masked-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $751 1,501 coins | 6.8% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [Souvenir MAG-7 \| Bulldozer (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mag-7-bulldozer-factory-new) | 24.9% | $251 501 coins | 56.3% | 7 | 8.0 | 0.88× |
| [Souvenir XM1014 \| Fallout Warning (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-xm1014-fallout-warning-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $75.70 151 coins | 4.8% | 2 | 2.2 | 0.89× |
| [Souvenir AUG \| Storm (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-aug-storm-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $75.66 151 coins | 4.8% | 2 | 2.2 | 0.89× |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Scorched (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-scorched-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $75.61 151 coins | 4.8% | 3 | 2.2 | 1.34× |
| [MAG-7 \| Firestarter (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-firestarter-factory-new) | 25.0% | $2.63 5.26 coins | 0.6% | 5 | 8.0 | 0.63× |
| [G3SG1 \| VariCamo (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-varicamo-field-tested) | 25.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 11 | 8.0 | 1.38× |

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 20:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $123 246 coins $1,271 2,542 coins 10.32x 2026-11-02 21:44 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Stained (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-stained-factory-new) Hidden $123 246 coins $760 1,520 coins 6.17x 2026-11-10 00:23 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=rudolph)

[MAG-7 | Firestarter (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-firestarter-factory-new) Hidden $123 246 coins $2.63 5.26 coins 0.02x 2026-11-10 00:23 UTC

[Souvenir AUG | Storm (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-aug-storm-factory-new) Hidden $123 246 coins $75.66 151 coins 0.61x 2026-11-10 00:23 UTC

[G3SG1 | VariCamo (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-varicamo-field-tested) Hidden $123 246 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 00:23 UTC

[★ Ursus Knife | Scorched (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-scorched-field-tested) Hidden $123 246 coins $75.61 151 coins 0.61x 2026-11-10 00:23 UTC

[Souvenir XM1014 | Fallout Warning (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-xm1014-fallout-warning-factory-new) Hidden $123 246 coins $75.70 151 coins 0.61x 2026-11-10 00:23 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Stained (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-stained-factory-new) Hidden $123 246 coins $760 1,520 coins 6.17x 2026-11-10 00:23 UTC

[Souvenir AUG | Storm (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-aug-storm-factory-new) Hidden $123 246 coins $75.66 151 coins 0.61x 2026-11-10 00:23 UTC

[Souvenir MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mag-7-bulldozer-factory-new) [COCOAAA](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/COCOAAA) $123 246 coins $251 501 coins 2.03x 2026-11-10 00:23 UTC

[G3SG1 | VariCamo (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-varicamo-field-tested) Hidden $123 246 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-05 02:28 UTC

[MAG-7 | Firestarter (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-firestarter-factory-new) Hidden $123 246 coins $2.63 5.26 coins 0.02x 2026-11-05 02:28 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $123 | 90.00% | 16 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed Ancient 0.0% covert 1.1% gold 1.0% #EB4B4B 1.0% covert knife 8.0% restricted 24.9% Industrial Grade 7.0% Consumer Grade 7.0% Mil Spec Grade 25.0% industrial 25.0% best hit $1,271 (10.32x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt