--- title: "Rusty Cave case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Rusty Cave ($54.28) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 8 items with odds, observed 68.84% over 52 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/rusty-cave rendered: 2026-11-11T15:44Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Rusty Cave](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/rusty-cave) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Rusty Cave A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/rusty-cave?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/rusty-cave?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/rusty-cave) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/rusty-cave?window=all) Price · $54.28 · 109 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $48.85 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 68.84% · 52 openings, odds method Variance · 3.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 11.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 77.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 28 openings · below min 30 days · 52 openings · below min since tracking started · 52 openings · below min -0.5% 65.0% 130.5% **Small sample.** 52 openings and 5.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/rusty-cave?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/rusty-cave?window=7d) | 28 | 56.66% ±73.1 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/rusty-cave) | 52 | 68.84% ±53.6 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/rusty-cave?window=all) | 52 | 68.84% ±53.6 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 52 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Diamondback (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-diamondback-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $696 1,392 coins | 14.2% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $401 802 coins | 16.4% | 1 | 1.0 | 0.96× | | [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) StatTrak · knife · #ffd700 · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 25 | $213 427 coins | 17.5% | 2 | 2.1 | 0.96× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $209 418 coins | 17.1% | 1 | 2.1 | 0.48× | | [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Freehand (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-freehand-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $202 404 coins | 16.5% | 1 | 2.1 | 0.48× | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Diamondback (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-diamondback-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $85.96 172 coins | 14.1% | 7 | 4.2 | 1.68× | | [Charm \| Diamond Dog charm · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-diamond-dog) | 10.0% | $13.43 26.86 coins | 2.7% | 5 | 5.2 | 0.96× | | [Galil AR \| Tuxedo (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-tuxedo-factory-new) | 67.0% | $1.02 2.04 coins | 1.4% | 35 | 34.8 | 1.00× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=rusty-cave) [Galil AR | Tuxedo (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-tuxedo-factory-new) Hidden $54.28 109 coins $1.02 2.04 coins 0.02x 2026-11-09 00:08 UTC [Galil AR | Tuxedo (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-tuxedo-factory-new) Hidden $54.28 109 coins $1.02 2.04 coins 0.02x 2026-11-09 00:08 UTC [Galil AR | Tuxedo (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-tuxedo-factory-new) Hidden $54.28 109 coins $1.02 2.04 coins 0.02x 2026-11-09 00:08 UTC [Galil AR | Tuxedo (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-tuxedo-factory-new) Hidden $54.28 109 coins $1.02 2.04 coins 0.02x 2026-11-09 00:08 UTC [Galil AR | Tuxedo (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-tuxedo-factory-new) Hidden $54.28 109 coins $1.02 2.04 coins 0.02x 2026-11-09 00:08 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) StatTrak · knife · #ffd700 · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $54.28 109 coins $213 427 coins 3.93x 2026-11-09 00:08 UTC [Galil AR | Tuxedo (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-tuxedo-factory-new) Hidden $54.28 109 coins $1.02 2.04 coins 0.02x 2026-11-09 00:08 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Freehand (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-freehand-factory-new) Hidden $54.28 109 coins $202 404 coins 3.72x 2026-11-09 00:08 UTC [Galil AR | Tuxedo (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-tuxedo-factory-new) Hidden $54.28 109 coins $1.02 2.04 coins 0.02x 2026-11-09 00:04 UTC [Galil AR | Tuxedo (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-tuxedo-factory-new) Hidden $54.28 109 coins $1.02 2.04 coins 0.02x 2026-11-09 00:04 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $54.28 | 90.00% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed extraordinary 9.0% covert knife 6.0% #ffd700 4.0% covert 4.0% rare 10.0% Rare 67.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt