--- title: "Rusty case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Rusty ($26.51) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 16 items with odds, observed 53.78% over 4 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/rusty rendered: 2026-11-11T13:48Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Rusty](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/rusty) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Rusty A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/rusty?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/rusty?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/rusty) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/rusty?window=all) Price · $26.51 · 53.01 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $23.85 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · 53.78% · 4 openings, odds method Variance · 1.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 20.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 65.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 4 openings · below min 30 days · 4 openings · below min since tracking started · 4 openings · below min -0.5% 85.3% 171.0% **Small sample.** 4 openings and 0.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/rusty?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/rusty?window=7d) | 4 | 53.78% ±116.6 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/rusty) | 4 | 53.78% ±116.6 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/rusty?window=all) | 4 | 53.78% ±116.6 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Souvenir AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-gold-arabesque-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33,333 | $1,396 2,792 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Souvenir M4A4 \| Eye of Horus (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a4-eye-of-horus-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,000 | $264 528 coins | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Desert Eagle \| Fennec Fox (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-fennec-fox-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $201 402 coins | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-mecha-industries-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $143 286 coins | 6.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Souvenir AK-47 \| Safari Mesh (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-safari-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $135 270 coins | 5.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Desert Eagle \| Pilot (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-pilot-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $98.39 197 coins | 12.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [USP-S \| Orange Anolis (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-orange-anolis-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $61.68 123 coins | 18.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [Souvenir R8 Revolver \| Amber Fade (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-r8-revolver-amber-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $51.63 103 coins | 17.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [AK-47 \| Head Shot (Factory New) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-head-shot-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $47.87 95.74 coins | 10.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [AWP \| Electric Hive (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-electric-hive-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $41.20 82.39 coins | 8.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $31.27 62.54 coins | 6.6% | 1 | 0.2 | — | | [SG 553 \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $25.16 50.31 coins | 5.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [AUG \| Momentum (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-momentum-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $13.70 27.4 coins | 2.9% | 1 | 0.2 | — | | [Desert Eagle \| Heirloom (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heirloom-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $10.26 20.52 coins | 2.2% | 1 | 0.2 | — | | [Sawed-Off \| The Kraken (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-the-kraken-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $3.57 7.13 coins | 0.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Nova \| Rust Coat (Factory New) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-rust-coat-factory-new) | 45.0% | $1.79 3.57 coins | 3.4% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.56× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=rusty) [Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-factory-new) Hidden $26.51 53.01 coins $31.27 62.54 coins 1.18x 2026-11-05 02:06 UTC [Nova | Rust Coat (Factory New) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-rust-coat-factory-new) Hidden $26.51 53.01 coins $1.79 3.57 coins 0.07x 2026-11-05 02:06 UTC [AUG | Momentum (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-momentum-factory-new) Hidden $26.51 53.01 coins $13.70 27.4 coins 0.52x 2026-11-05 02:06 UTC [Desert Eagle | Heirloom (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heirloom-factory-new) [Insin](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Insin) $26.51 53.01 coins $10.26 20.52 coins 0.39x 2026-11-05 02:06 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $26.51 | 90.00% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 11.1% pink 0.1% Industrial Grade 46.0% restricted 8.0% Mythical 7.0% Classified 7.9% Ancient 5.0% classified 10.0% Rare 5.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt