--- title: "Safe Wager case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Safe Wager ($2.47) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.91% from 8 items with odds, observed 85.59% over 654 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/safe-wager rendered: 2026-11-11T17:05Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Safe Wager](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/safe-wager) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Safe Wager A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/safe-wager?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/safe-wager?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/safe-wager) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/safe-wager?window=all) Price · $2.47 · 4.94 coins Advertised RTP · 89.91% · EV $2.22 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 85.59% · 654 openings, odds method Variance · 1.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 100.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 40 openings · below min 7 days · 84.09% ±9.57 580 openings 30 days · 85.59% ±9.01 654 openings since tracking started · 85.59% ±9.01 654 openings 48.0% 85.0% 122.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/safe-wager?window=24h) | 40 | 84.90% ±36.4 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/safe-wager?window=7d) | 580 | 84.09% ±9.57 | −1.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/safe-wager) | 654 | 85.59% ±9.01 | −0.9σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/safe-wager?window=all) | 654 | 85.59% ±9.01 | −0.9σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 654 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $21.29 42.58 coins | 9.6% | 8 | 6.5 | 1.22× | | [M4A4 \| Radiation Hazard (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-radiation-hazard-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $16.76 33.52 coins | 7.5% | 3 | 6.5 | 0.46× | | [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $14.61 29.21 coins | 6.6% | 4 | 6.5 | 0.61× | | [MAG-7 \| Sand Dune (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-sand-dune-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $8.06 16.12 coins | 3.6% | 5 | 6.5 | 0.76× | | [P90 \| Shapewood (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-shapewood-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $7.37 14.74 coins | 3.3% | 6 | 6.5 | 0.92× | | [MP5-SD \| Autumn Twilly (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-autumn-twilly-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $4.46 8.91 coins | 4.0% | 12 | 13.1 | 0.92× | | [Sawed-Off \| Bamboo Shadow (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-bamboo-shadow-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $2.62 5.23 coins | 3.5% | 24 | 19.6 | 1.22× | | [Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-angry-mob-field-tested) | 90.0% | $1.53 3.05 coins | 61.8% | 592 | 588.6 | 1.01× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=safe-wager) [Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-angry-mob-field-tested) Hidden $2.47 4.94 coins $1.53 3.05 coins 0.62x 2026-11-11 16:49 UTC [Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-angry-mob-field-tested) Hidden $2.47 4.94 coins $1.53 3.05 coins 0.62x 2026-11-11 16:49 UTC [Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-angry-mob-field-tested) Hidden $2.47 4.94 coins $1.53 3.05 coins 0.62x 2026-11-11 16:49 UTC [Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-angry-mob-field-tested) Hidden $2.47 4.94 coins $1.53 3.05 coins 0.62x 2026-11-11 16:49 UTC [Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-angry-mob-field-tested) Hidden $2.47 4.94 coins $1.53 3.05 coins 0.62x 2026-11-11 16:49 UTC [Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-angry-mob-field-tested) Hidden $2.47 4.94 coins $1.53 3.05 coins 0.62x 2026-11-11 16:49 UTC [Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-angry-mob-field-tested) Hidden $2.47 4.94 coins $1.53 3.05 coins 0.62x 2026-11-11 16:49 UTC [Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-angry-mob-field-tested) [Sorhex](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Sorhex) $2.47 4.94 coins $1.53 3.05 coins 0.62x 2026-11-11 16:49 UTC [Sawed-Off | Bamboo Shadow (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-bamboo-shadow-factory-new) Hidden $2.47 4.94 coins $2.62 5.23 coins 1.06x 2026-11-11 16:49 UTC [Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-angry-mob-field-tested) Hidden $2.47 4.94 coins $1.53 3.05 coins 0.62x 2026-11-11 16:49 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $2.47 | 89.91% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 92.0% mil spec 1.0% consumer 1.0% classified 1.0% #8847ff 2.0% Consumer Grade 3.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.91 on average: an expected loss of $10.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt