--- title: "Safehouse case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Safehouse ($21.91) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.98% from 16 items with odds, observed 59.68% over 70 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/safehouse rendered: 2026-11-11T13:40Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Safehouse](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/safehouse) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Safehouse A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/safehouse?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/safehouse?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/safehouse) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/safehouse?window=all) Price · $21.91 · 43.81 coins Advertised RTP · 89.98% · EV $19.71 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · 59.68% · 70 openings, odds method Variance · 7.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 10.7% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 66.3% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 62 openings · below min 30 days · 70 openings · below min since tracking started · 70 openings · below min -0.5% 61.8% 124.0% **Small sample.** 70 openings and 7.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/safehouse?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/safehouse?window=7d) | 62 | 56.15% ±67.0 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/safehouse) | 70 | 59.68% ±63.0 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/safehouse?window=all) | 70 | 59.68% ±63.0 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 70 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) StatTrak · knife · Knives · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 3,333 | $1,505 3,010 coins | 2.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Black Laminate (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-black-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 1,667 | $1,138 2,276 coins | 3.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Blue Steel (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $685 1,371 coins | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $392 784 coins | 19.9% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [Souvenir R8 Revolver \| Amber Fade (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-r8-revolver-amber-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 63 | $113 226 coins | 9.2% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.89× | | [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) weapon · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 25 | $44.59 89.17 coins | 9.0% | 0 | 2.8 | 0.00× | | [M4A4 \| Hellfire (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $44.42 88.83 coins | 9.0% | 2 | 2.8 | 0.71× | | [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $40.95 81.9 coins | 8.3% | 5 | 2.8 | 1.79× | | [★ Hydra Gloves \| Emerald (Field-Tested) gloves · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-emerald-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $40.72 81.43 coins | 8.3% | 1 | 2.8 | 0.36× | | [M4A4 \| Desert Storm (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desert-storm-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $34.17 68.34 coins | 5.2% | 2 | 2.1 | 0.95× | | [SG 553 \| Colony IV (Factory New) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-colony-iv-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $29.21 58.42 coins | 4.4% | 3 | 2.1 | 1.43× | | [M4A1-S \| Moss Quartz (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-moss-quartz-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $29.07 58.14 coins | 4.4% | 5 | 2.1 | 2.38× | | [SG 553 \| Hypnotic (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-hypnotic-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $28.33 56.65 coins | 4.3% | 0 | 2.1 | 0.00× | | [MAC-10 \| Propaganda (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-propaganda-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $27.81 55.62 coins | 4.2% | 2 | 2.1 | 0.95× | | [AK-47 \| Safety Net (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net-factory-new) | 14.0% | $6.27 12.54 coins | 4.5% | 14 | 9.8 | 1.43× | | [Tec-9 \| Safety Net (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-safety-net-field-tested) | 52.3% | $0.66 1.32 coins | 1.7% | 35 | 36.6 | 0.96× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=safehouse) [AK-47 | Safety Net (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net-factory-new) Hidden $21.91 43.81 coins $6.27 12.54 coins 0.29x 2026-11-10 12:46 UTC [Tec-9 | Safety Net (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-safety-net-field-tested) Hidden $21.91 43.81 coins $0.66 1.32 coins 0.03x 2026-11-10 12:46 UTC [AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-factory-new) Hidden $21.91 43.81 coins $40.95 81.9 coins 1.87x 2026-11-10 12:46 UTC [Tec-9 | Safety Net (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-safety-net-field-tested) [axel02legmail](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/axel02legmail) $21.91 43.81 coins $0.66 1.32 coins 0.03x 2026-11-10 12:46 UTC [Tec-9 | Safety Net (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-safety-net-field-tested) Hidden $21.91 43.81 coins $0.66 1.32 coins 0.03x 2026-11-10 08:11 UTC [Tec-9 | Safety Net (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-safety-net-field-tested) Hidden $21.91 43.81 coins $0.66 1.32 coins 0.03x 2026-11-10 08:11 UTC [SG 553 | Colony IV (Factory New) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-colony-iv-factory-new) Hidden $21.91 43.81 coins $29.21 58.42 coins 1.33x 2026-11-10 08:11 UTC [M4A1-S | Moss Quartz (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-moss-quartz-factory-new) [DemonDeeeeek](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/DemonDeeeeek) $21.91 43.81 coins $29.07 58.14 coins 1.33x 2026-11-10 08:11 UTC [AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-factory-new) Hidden $21.91 43.81 coins $40.95 81.9 coins 1.87x 2026-11-10 08:11 UTC [M4A1-S | Moss Quartz (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-moss-quartz-factory-new) Hidden $21.91 43.81 coins $29.07 58.14 coins 1.33x 2026-11-10 08:11 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $21.91 | 89.98% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Knives 0.0% covert knife 0.1% covert 5.0% Classified 1.6% classified 11.0% gold 4.0% industrial 6.0% #d32ee6 3.0% restricted 17.0% milspec 52.3% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.98 on average: an expected loss of $10.02 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt