--- title: "Sakura case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Sakura ($1,134.59) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 11 items with odds, observed 54.66% over 20 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/sakura rendered: 2026-11-11T14:57Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Sakura](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/sakura) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Sakura A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/sakura?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/sakura?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/sakura) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/sakura?window=all) Price · $1,134.59 · 2,269 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $1,021.12 from 11 items Observed RTP, 30d · 54.66% · 20 openings, odds method Variance · 2.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 13.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 77.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 12 openings · below min 7 days · 20 openings · below min 30 days · 20 openings · below min since tracking started · 20 openings · below min -0.5% 72.5% 145.5% **Small sample.** 20 openings and 2.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/sakura?window=24h) | 12 | 60.85% ±84.2 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/sakura?window=7d) | 20 | 54.66% ±65.2 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/sakura) | 20 | 54.66% ±65.2 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/sakura?window=all) | 20 | 54.66% ±65.2 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 20 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $9,318 18,637 coins | 18.3% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) StatTrak · knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 50 | $5,754 11,508 coins | 11.3% | 1 | 0.4 | — | | [Charm \| Chicken Lil' charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-chicken-lil) | 1 in 50 | $5,000 10,000 coins | 9.8% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [AWP \| The Prince (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $3,086 6,171 coins | 10.6% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 29 | $2,371 4,742 coins | 8.1% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Autotronic (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-autotronic-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $1,750 3,500 coins | 8.6% | 0 | 1.0 | 0.00× | | [★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-skeleton-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $1,252 2,504 coins | 6.1% | 1 | 1.0 | 1.00× | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 13 | $1,022 2,043 coins | 7.5% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.67× | | [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 13 | $982 1,964 coins | 7.2% | 2 | 1.5 | 1.33× | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Eclipse (Factory New) gloves · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-eclipse-factory-new) | 12.0% | $825 1,650 coins | 9.7% | 2 | 2.4 | 0.83× | | [MAC-10 \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 50.0% | $58.64 117 coins | 2.9% | 13 | 10.0 | 1.30× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) StatTrak · knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $1,135 2,269 coins $5,754 11,508 coins 5.07x 2026-11-10 22:38 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-skeleton-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $1,135 2,269 coins $1,252 2,504 coins 1.10x 2026-11-09 19:23 UTC [★ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $1,135 2,269 coins $1,022 2,043 coins 0.90x 2026-11-10 22:38 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $1,135 2,269 coins $982 1,964 coins 0.87x 2026-11-10 16:33 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $1,135 2,269 coins $982 1,964 coins 0.87x 2026-11-09 19:23 UTC [★ Moto Gloves | Eclipse (Factory New) gloves · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-eclipse-factory-new) [fficient](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/fficient) $1,135 2,269 coins $825 1,650 coins 0.73x 2026-11-09 19:23 UTC [★ Moto Gloves | Eclipse (Factory New) gloves · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-eclipse-factory-new) Hidden $1,135 2,269 coins $825 1,650 coins 0.73x 2026-11-09 19:23 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=sakura) [★ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $1,135 2,269 coins $1,022 2,043 coins 0.90x 2026-11-10 22:38 UTC [MAC-10 | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-case-hardened-minimal-wear) Hidden $1,135 2,269 coins $58.64 117 coins 0.05x 2026-11-10 22:38 UTC [MAC-10 | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-case-hardened-minimal-wear) Hidden $1,135 2,269 coins $58.64 117 coins 0.05x 2026-11-10 22:38 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) StatTrak · knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $1,135 2,269 coins $5,754 11,508 coins 5.07x 2026-11-10 22:38 UTC [MAC-10 | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-case-hardened-minimal-wear) Hidden $1,135 2,269 coins $58.64 117 coins 0.05x 2026-11-10 22:38 UTC [MAC-10 | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-case-hardened-minimal-wear) Hidden $1,135 2,269 coins $58.64 117 coins 0.05x 2026-11-10 22:38 UTC [MAC-10 | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-case-hardened-minimal-wear) Hidden $1,135 2,269 coins $58.64 117 coins 0.05x 2026-11-10 22:38 UTC [MAC-10 | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-case-hardened-minimal-wear) [BreeTheG](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/BreeTheG) $1,135 2,269 coins $58.64 117 coins 0.05x 2026-11-10 22:38 UTC [MAC-10 | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-case-hardened-minimal-wear) Hidden $1,135 2,269 coins $58.64 117 coins 0.05x 2026-11-10 16:33 UTC [MAC-10 | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-case-hardened-minimal-wear) Hidden $1,135 2,269 coins $58.64 117 coins 0.05x 2026-11-10 16:33 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $1,135 | 90.00% | 11 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 31.0% uncommon 2.0% covert knife 5.0% Extraordinary 12.0% Mythical 50.0% best hit $5,754 (5.07x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt