--- title: "Saltwater Splash case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Saltwater Splash ($3.86) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.92% from 6 items with odds, observed 86.07% over 283 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/saltwater-splash rendered: 2026-11-11T20:23Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Saltwater Splash](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/saltwater-splash) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Saltwater Splash A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/saltwater-splash?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/saltwater-splash?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/saltwater-splash) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/saltwater-splash?window=all) Price · $3.86 · 7.72 coins Advertised RTP · 88.92% · EV $3.43 from 6 items Observed RTP, 30d · 86.07% · 283 openings, odds method Variance · 0.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 20.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 50.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 26 openings · below min 7 days · 92.15% ±13.24 181 openings 30 days · 86.07% ±10.59 283 openings since tracking started · 86.07% ±10.59 283 openings 46.5% 82.0% 117.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/saltwater-splash?window=24h) | 26 | 81.83% ±34.9 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/saltwater-splash?window=7d) | 181 | 92.15% ±13.2 | +0.5σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/saltwater-splash) | 283 | 86.07% ±10.6 | −0.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/saltwater-splash?window=all) | 283 | 86.07% ±10.6 | −0.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 283 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [USP-S \| Royal Blue (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-blue-field-tested) | 10.0% | $10.11 20.21 coins | 29.4% | 25 | 28.3 | 0.88× | | [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-field-tested) | 10.0% | $7.18 14.36 coins | 20.9% | 34 | 28.3 | 1.20× | | [Tec-9 \| Decimator (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-decimator-field-tested) | 10.0% | $6.37 12.73 coins | 18.5% | 21 | 28.3 | 0.74× | | [PP-Bizon \| Blue Streak (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-blue-streak-factory-new) | 10.0% | $5.04 10.08 coins | 14.7% | 20 | 28.3 | 0.71× | | [Galil AR \| Stone Cold (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-stone-cold-factory-new) | 10.0% | $4.59 9.17 coins | 13.4% | 39 | 28.3 | 1.38× | | [SCAR-20 \| Blueprint (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-blueprint-factory-new) | 50.0% | $0.21 0.42 coins | 3.1% | 144 | 141.5 | 1.02× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 20:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=saltwater-splash) [USP-S | Royal Blue (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-blue-field-tested) Hidden $3.86 7.72 coins $10.11 20.21 coins 2.62x 2026-11-11 18:22 UTC [AK-47 | Nightwish (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-field-tested) Hidden $3.86 7.72 coins $7.18 14.36 coins 1.86x 2026-11-11 18:22 UTC [SCAR-20 | Blueprint (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-blueprint-factory-new) Hidden $3.86 7.72 coins $0.21 0.42 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 18:22 UTC [Galil AR | Stone Cold (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-stone-cold-factory-new) Hidden $3.86 7.72 coins $4.59 9.17 coins 1.19x 2026-11-11 18:22 UTC [SCAR-20 | Blueprint (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-blueprint-factory-new) Hidden $3.86 7.72 coins $0.21 0.42 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 18:22 UTC [SCAR-20 | Blueprint (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-blueprint-factory-new) [Moon1025](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Moon1025) $3.86 7.72 coins $0.21 0.42 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 18:22 UTC [SCAR-20 | Blueprint (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-blueprint-factory-new) Hidden $3.86 7.72 coins $0.21 0.42 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 14:04 UTC [Tec-9 | Decimator (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-decimator-field-tested) Hidden $3.86 7.72 coins $6.37 12.73 coins 1.65x 2026-11-11 14:04 UTC [SCAR-20 | Blueprint (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-blueprint-factory-new) Hidden $3.86 7.72 coins $0.21 0.42 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 14:04 UTC [SCAR-20 | Blueprint (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-blueprint-factory-new) [patriarch1337](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/patriarch1337) $3.86 7.72 coins $0.21 0.42 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 14:04 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $3.86 | 88.92% | 6 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed industrial 10.0% covert 10.0% classified 10.0% restricted 20.0% #4b69ff 50.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.92 on average: an expected loss of $11.08 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt