--- title: "Santa Hat case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Santa Hat ($0.91) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.71% from 8 items with odds, observed 92.53% over 11.5K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/santa-hat rendered: 2026-11-11T13:58Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Santa Hat](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/santa-hat) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Santa Hat A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/santa-hat?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/santa-hat?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/santa-hat) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/santa-hat?window=all) Price · $0.91 · 1.81 coins Advertised RTP · 89.71% · EV $0.81 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 92.53% · 11.5K openings, odds method Variance · 45.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 100 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 92.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 77.83% ±37.72 1,215 openings 7 days · 92.79% ±13.73 9,170 openings 30 days · 92.53% ±12.24 11.5K openings since tracking started · 92.53% ±12.24 11.5K openings 39.5% 77.8% 116.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/santa-hat?window=24h) | 1,215 | 77.83% ±37.7 | −0.6σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/santa-hat?window=7d) | 9,170 | 92.79% ±13.7 | +0.4σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/santa-hat) | 11.5K | 92.53% ±12.2 | +0.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/santa-hat?window=all) | 11.5K | 92.53% ±12.2 | +0.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 11.5K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Souvenir MP9 \| Hot Rod (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mp9-hot-rod-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $61.04 122 coins | 75.2% | 122 | 115.4 | 1.06× | | [MP7 \| Bloodsport (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-bloodsport-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $2.67 5.34 coins | 3.3% | 107 | 115.4 | 0.93× | | [R8 Revolver \| Crimson Web (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $2.35 4.7 coins | 5.8% | 196 | 230.8 | 0.85× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $1.05 2.1 coins | 5.2% | 468 | 461.6 | 1.01× | | [Tec-9 \| Safety Net (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-safety-net-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $0.66 1.32 coins | 3.3% | 457 | 461.6 | 0.99× | | [Five-SeveN \| Urban Hazard (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-urban-hazard-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $0.60 1.2 coins | 3.0% | 461 | 461.6 | 1.00× | | [MAG-7 \| Core Breach (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-core-breach-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $0.58 1.17 coins | 2.9% | 448 | 461.6 | 0.97× | | [MAG-7 \| Insomnia (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-insomnia-field-tested) | 80.0% | $0.01 0.03 coins | 1.5% | 9,281 | 9232.0 | 1.01× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Souvenir MP9 | Hot Rod (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mp9-hot-rod-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.91 1.81 coins $61.04 122 coins 67.44x 2026-11-11 07:06 UTC [Souvenir MP9 | Hot Rod (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mp9-hot-rod-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.91 1.81 coins $61.04 122 coins 67.44x 2026-11-11 04:55 UTC [Souvenir MP9 | Hot Rod (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mp9-hot-rod-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.91 1.81 coins $61.04 122 coins 67.44x 2026-11-11 04:44 UTC [Souvenir MP9 | Hot Rod (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mp9-hot-rod-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.91 1.81 coins $61.04 122 coins 67.44x 2026-11-11 04:34 UTC [Souvenir MP9 | Hot Rod (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mp9-hot-rod-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.91 1.81 coins $61.04 122 coins 67.44x 2026-11-11 04:33 UTC [Souvenir MP9 | Hot Rod (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mp9-hot-rod-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.91 1.81 coins $61.04 122 coins 67.44x 2026-11-11 01:36 UTC [Souvenir MP9 | Hot Rod (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mp9-hot-rod-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.91 1.81 coins $61.04 122 coins 67.44x 2026-11-10 23:49 UTC [Souvenir MP9 | Hot Rod (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mp9-hot-rod-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.91 1.81 coins $61.04 122 coins 67.44x 2026-11-10 23:35 UTC [Souvenir MP9 | Hot Rod (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mp9-hot-rod-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.91 1.81 coins $61.04 122 coins 67.44x 2026-11-10 21:59 UTC [Souvenir MP9 | Hot Rod (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mp9-hot-rod-minimal-wear) [BriskVault1293](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/BriskVault1293) $0.91 1.81 coins $61.04 122 coins 67.44x 2026-11-10 16:25 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=santa-hat) [Tec-9 | Safety Net (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-safety-net-field-tested) Hidden $0.91 1.81 coins $0.66 1.32 coins 0.73x 2026-11-11 13:25 UTC [MAG-7 | Insomnia (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-insomnia-field-tested) Hidden $0.91 1.81 coins $0.01 0.03 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:25 UTC [MAG-7 | Core Breach (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-core-breach-field-tested) Hidden $0.91 1.81 coins $0.58 1.17 coins 0.65x 2026-11-11 13:25 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-crimson-web-field-tested) Hidden $0.91 1.81 coins $1.05 2.1 coins 1.16x 2026-11-11 13:25 UTC [MAG-7 | Insomnia (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-insomnia-field-tested) Hidden $0.91 1.81 coins $0.01 0.03 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:25 UTC [MAG-7 | Insomnia (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-insomnia-field-tested) Hidden $0.91 1.81 coins $0.01 0.03 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:25 UTC [MAG-7 | Core Breach (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-core-breach-field-tested) Hidden $0.91 1.81 coins $0.58 1.17 coins 0.65x 2026-11-11 13:25 UTC [MAG-7 | Insomnia (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-insomnia-field-tested) [Moon1025](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Moon1025) $0.91 1.81 coins $0.01 0.03 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:25 UTC [MAG-7 | Insomnia (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-insomnia-field-tested) Hidden $0.91 1.81 coins $0.01 0.03 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:04 UTC [MAG-7 | Insomnia (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-insomnia-field-tested) Hidden $0.91 1.81 coins $0.01 0.03 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:04 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $0.91 | 89.71% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed mil spec 7.0% covert 1.0% #4b69ff 84.0% milspec 4.0% violet 4.0% best hit $61.04 (67.44x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.7% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.71 on average: an expected loss of $10.29 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt