--- title: "Santas Glocks case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Santas Glocks ($2.77) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.98% from 10 items with odds, observed 82.33% over 16.2K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/santas-glocks rendered: 2026-11-11T17:43Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Santas Glocks](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/santas-glocks) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Santas Glocks A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/santas-glocks?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/santas-glocks?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/santas-glocks) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/santas-glocks?window=all) Price · $2.77 · 5.54 coins Advertised RTP · 89.98% · EV $2.49 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 82.33% · 16.2K openings, odds method Variance · 155.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 364 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 98.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 1,026 openings · below min 7 days · 83.08% ±22.70 11.6K openings 30 days · 82.33% ±19.21 16.2K openings since tracking started · 82.33% ±19.21 16.2K openings 25.0% 102.0% 179.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/santas-glocks?window=24h) | 1,026 | 101.88% ±76.3 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/santas-glocks?window=7d) | 11.6K | 83.08% ±22.7 | −0.6σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/santas-glocks) | 16.2K | 82.33% ±19.2 | −0.8σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/santas-glocks?window=all) | 16.2K | 82.33% ±19.2 | −0.8σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 16.2K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Glock-18 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,182 2,363 coins | 23.7% | 6 | 8.1 | 0.74× | | [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) weapon · red · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 1,000 | $466 933 coins | 18.7% | 11 | 16.2 | 0.68× | | [Souvenir Glock-18 \| Candy Apple (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-candy-apple-factory-new) | 1 in 800 | $424 849 coins | 21.3% | 24 | 20.2 | 1.19× | | [Souvenir Glock-18 \| Candy Apple (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-candy-apple-minimal-wear) | 1 in 400 | $131 262 coins | 13.1% | 42 | 40.4 | 1.04× | | [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) weapon · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 200 | $52.17 104 coins | 10.5% | 73 | 80.8 | 0.90× | | [Glock-18 \| Blue Fissure (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-blue-fissure-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $11.64 23.28 coins | 4.7% | 166 | 161.7 | 1.03× | | [Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-moonrise-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $0.68 1.35 coins | 1.4% | 829 | 808.5 | 1.03× | | [Glock-18 \| Off World (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-off-world-factory-new) | 10.0% | $0.43 0.86 coins | 1.7% | 1,555 | 1616.9 | 0.96× | | [Glock-18 \| Candy Apple (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-candy-apple-minimal-wear) | 20.0% | $0.24 0.48 coins | 1.9% | 3,223 | 3233.8 | 1.00× | | [Glock-18 \| Bunsen Burner (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bunsen-burner-field-tested) | 63.0% | $0.12 0.24 coins | 3.0% | 10,240 | 10182.4 | 1.01× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) Hidden $2.77 5.54 coins $1,182 2,363 coins 426.6x 2026-11-10 05:49 UTC [Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) Hidden $2.77 5.54 coins $1,182 2,363 coins 426.6x 2026-11-08 18:49 UTC [Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) [fredric89](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/fredric89) $2.77 5.54 coins $1,182 2,363 coins 426.6x 2026-11-06 22:12 UTC [Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) Hidden $2.77 5.54 coins $1,182 2,363 coins 426.6x 2026-11-05 17:49 UTC [Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) Hidden $2.77 5.54 coins $1,182 2,363 coins 426.6x 2026-11-03 23:05 UTC [Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) Hidden $2.77 5.54 coins $1,182 2,363 coins 426.6x 2026-11-03 04:03 UTC [Glock-18 | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) weapon · red · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $2.77 5.54 coins $466 933 coins 168.4x 2026-11-09 15:34 UTC [Glock-18 | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) weapon · red · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $2.77 5.54 coins $466 933 coins 168.4x 2026-11-08 18:40 UTC [Glock-18 | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) weapon · red · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) [spejsat](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/spejsat) $2.77 5.54 coins $466 933 coins 168.4x 2026-11-07 18:53 UTC [Glock-18 | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) weapon · red · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $2.77 5.54 coins $466 933 coins 168.4x 2026-11-07 15:06 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=santas-glocks) [Glock-18 | Bunsen Burner (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bunsen-burner-field-tested) Hidden $2.77 5.54 coins $0.12 0.24 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 16:53 UTC [Glock-18 | Moonrise (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-moonrise-factory-new) Hidden $2.77 5.54 coins $0.68 1.35 coins 0.24x 2026-11-11 16:53 UTC [Glock-18 | Off World (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-off-world-factory-new) Hidden $2.77 5.54 coins $0.43 0.86 coins 0.16x 2026-11-11 16:53 UTC [Glock-18 | Candy Apple (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-candy-apple-minimal-wear) [Tomas0](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Tomas0) $2.77 5.54 coins $0.24 0.48 coins 0.09x 2026-11-11 16:53 UTC [Glock-18 | Bunsen Burner (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bunsen-burner-field-tested) Hidden $2.77 5.54 coins $0.12 0.24 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 15:24 UTC [Glock-18 | Blue Fissure (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-blue-fissure-factory-new) Hidden $2.77 5.54 coins $11.64 23.28 coins 4.20x 2026-11-11 15:24 UTC [Glock-18 | Bunsen Burner (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bunsen-burner-field-tested) Hidden $2.77 5.54 coins $0.12 0.24 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 15:24 UTC [Glock-18 | Candy Apple (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-candy-apple-minimal-wear) [conR](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/conR) $2.77 5.54 coins $0.24 0.48 coins 0.09x 2026-11-11 15:24 UTC [Glock-18 | Off World (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-off-world-factory-new) Hidden $2.77 5.54 coins $0.43 0.86 coins 0.16x 2026-11-11 15:19 UTC [Glock-18 | Bunsen Burner (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bunsen-burner-field-tested) Hidden $2.77 5.54 coins $0.12 0.24 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 15:19 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $2.77 | 89.98% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed restricted 5.1% red 0.1% mil spec 94.3% covert 0.5% best hit $1,182 (426.6x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.98 on average: an expected loss of $10.02 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt