--- title: "Santa’s Sleigh case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Santa’s Sleigh ($20.90) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 9 items with odds, observed 89.93% over 505 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/santas-sleigh rendered: 2026-11-11T21:17Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Santa’s Sleigh](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/santas-sleigh) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Santa’s Sleigh A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/santas-sleigh?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/santas-sleigh?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/santas-sleigh) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/santas-sleigh?window=all) Price · $20.90 · 41.8 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $18.81 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 89.93% · 505 openings, odds method Variance · 18.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 65 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 94.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 24 openings · below min 7 days · 311 openings · below min 30 days · 89.93% ±37.67 505 openings since tracking started · 89.93% ±37.67 505 openings -0.5% 173.0% 346.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/santas-sleigh?window=24h) | 24 | 172.83% ±172.8 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/santas-sleigh?window=7d) | 311 | 57.45% ±48.0 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/santas-sleigh) | 505 | 89.93% ±37.7 | −0.0σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/santas-sleigh?window=all) | 505 | 89.93% ±37.7 | −0.0σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 505 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Souvenir AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-gold-arabesque-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,396 2,792 coins | 7.4% | 1 | 0.5 | — | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-red-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $809 1,619 coins | 10.8% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.79× | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Rezan the Red (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-rezan-the-red-factory-new) | 1 in 250 | $667 1,334 coins | 14.2% | 2 | 2.0 | 0.99× | | [Souvenir M4A1-S \| Imminent Danger (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-imminent-danger-battle-scarred) | 1 in 125 | $463 926 coins | 19.7% | 2 | 4.0 | 0.50× | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $332 664 coins | 17.7% | 5 | 5.0 | 0.99× | | [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-code-red-factory-new) | 1 in 69 | $122 244 coins | 9.4% | 12 | 7.3 | 1.64× | | [M4A4 \| Red DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-red-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $60.88 122 coins | 6.5% | 10 | 10.1 | 0.99× | | [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-field-tested) | 15.0% | $13.79 27.57 coins | 11.0% | 70 | 75.8 | 0.92× | | [P2000 \| Red FragCam (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-red-fragcam-field-tested) | 79.0% | $0.81 1.62 coins | 3.4% | 402 | 399.0 | 1.01× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 20:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Souvenir AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-gold-arabesque-battle-scarred) Hidden $20.90 41.8 coins $1,396 2,792 coins 66.79x 2026-11-04 03:24 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Red Laminate (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-red-laminate-factory-new) Hidden $20.90 41.8 coins $809 1,619 coins 38.73x 2026-11-11 19:35 UTC [★ Driver Gloves | Rezan the Red (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-rezan-the-red-factory-new) Hidden $20.90 41.8 coins $667 1,334 coins 31.91x 2026-11-03 17:27 UTC [★ Driver Gloves | Rezan the Red (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-rezan-the-red-factory-new) Hidden $20.90 41.8 coins $667 1,334 coins 31.91x 2026-11-03 17:18 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=santas-sleigh) [P2000 | Red FragCam (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-red-fragcam-field-tested) Hidden $20.90 41.8 coins $0.81 1.62 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 19:36 UTC [P2000 | Red FragCam (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-red-fragcam-field-tested) Hidden $20.90 41.8 coins $0.81 1.62 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 19:36 UTC [P2000 | Red FragCam (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-red-fragcam-field-tested) Hidden $20.90 41.8 coins $0.81 1.62 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 19:36 UTC [P2000 | Red FragCam (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-red-fragcam-field-tested) Hidden $20.90 41.8 coins $0.81 1.62 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 19:36 UTC [P2000 | Red FragCam (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-red-fragcam-field-tested) Hidden $20.90 41.8 coins $0.81 1.62 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 19:36 UTC [P2000 | Red FragCam (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-red-fragcam-field-tested) Hidden $20.90 41.8 coins $0.81 1.62 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 19:36 UTC [P2000 | Red FragCam (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-red-fragcam-field-tested) Hidden $20.90 41.8 coins $0.81 1.62 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 19:36 UTC [P2000 | Red FragCam (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-red-fragcam-field-tested) Hidden $20.90 41.8 coins $0.81 1.62 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 19:36 UTC [P2000 | Red FragCam (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-red-fragcam-field-tested) Hidden $20.90 41.8 coins $0.81 1.62 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 19:35 UTC [P2000 | Red FragCam (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-red-fragcam-field-tested) Hidden $20.90 41.8 coins $0.81 1.62 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 19:35 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $20.90 | 90.00% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 17.5% classified 0.3% extraordinary 0.4% Covert 0.8% restricted 2.0% mil spec 79.0% best hit $1,396 (66.79x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt