--- title: "Scratch case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Scratch ($64.57) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 8 items with odds, observed 98.45% over 44 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/scratch rendered: 2026-11-11T20:22Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Scratch](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/scratch) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Scratch A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/scratch?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/scratch?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/scratch) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/scratch?window=all) Price · $64.57 · 129 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $58.11 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 98.45% · 44 openings, odds method Variance · 3.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 10.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 67.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 32 openings · below min 7 days · 38 openings · below min 30 days · 44 openings · below min since tracking started · 44 openings · below min 38.5% 112.8% 187.0% **Small sample.** 44 openings and 4.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/scratch?window=24h) | 32 | 119.24% ±66.9 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/scratch?window=7d) | 38 | 100.51% ±61.4 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/scratch) | 44 | 98.45% ±57.1 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/scratch?window=all) | 44 | 98.45% ±57.1 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 44 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Crimson Web (Factory New) StatTrak · knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $751 1,501 coins | 12.9% | 1 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 100 | $630 1,260 coins | 10.8% | 1 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 100 | $506 1,012 coins | 8.7% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 100 | $451 903 coins | 7.8% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Night (Factory New) StatTrak · knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-night-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $197 395 coins | 20.4% | 2 | 2.6 | 0.76× | | [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Black Laminate (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-black-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $132 264 coins | 20.4% | 3 | 4.0 | 0.76× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-autotronic-field-tested) | 14.0% | $76.84 154 coins | 18.5% | 8 | 6.2 | 1.30× | | [M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-field-tested) | 67.0% | $0.39 0.77 coins | 0.4% | 29 | 29.5 | 0.98× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 20:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Crimson Web (Factory New) StatTrak · knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $64.57 129 coins $751 1,501 coins 11.62x 2026-11-11 16:16 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $64.57 129 coins $630 1,260 coins 9.75x 2026-11-11 16:15 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=scratch) [M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-field-tested) Hidden $64.57 129 coins $0.39 0.77 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 16:18 UTC [M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-field-tested) Hidden $64.57 129 coins $0.39 0.77 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 16:18 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Black Laminate (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-black-laminate-factory-new) Hidden $64.57 129 coins $132 264 coins 2.04x 2026-11-11 16:18 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-autotronic-field-tested) Hidden $64.57 129 coins $76.84 154 coins 1.19x 2026-11-11 16:18 UTC [M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-field-tested) Hidden $64.57 129 coins $0.39 0.77 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 16:18 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-autotronic-field-tested) Hidden $64.57 129 coins $76.84 154 coins 1.19x 2026-11-11 16:18 UTC [M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-field-tested) Hidden $64.57 129 coins $0.39 0.77 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 16:18 UTC [M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-field-tested) [kvaki](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/kvaki) $64.57 129 coins $0.39 0.77 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 16:18 UTC [M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-field-tested) Hidden $64.57 129 coins $0.39 0.77 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 16:16 UTC [M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-field-tested) Hidden $64.57 129 coins $0.39 0.77 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 16:16 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $64.57 | 90.00% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed other 7.0% covert 3.0% covert knife 9.0% Immortal 14.0% Mythical 67.0% best hit $751 (11.62x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt