--- title: "Seabreeze case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Seabreeze ($35.14) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 8 items with odds, observed 64.06% over 8 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/seabreeze rendered: 2026-11-11T18:41Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Seabreeze](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/seabreeze) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Seabreeze A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/seabreeze?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/seabreeze?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/seabreeze) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/seabreeze?window=all) Price · $35.14 · 70.27 coins Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $31.62 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 64.06% · 8 openings, odds method Variance · 2.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 15.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 75.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 30 days · 8 openings · below min since tracking started · 8 openings · below min -0.5% 90.5% 181.5% **Small sample.** 8 openings and 1.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/seabreeze?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/seabreeze?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/seabreeze) | 8 | 64.06% ±117.0 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/seabreeze?window=all) | 8 | 64.06% ±117.0 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 8 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,405 2,810 coins | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 100 | $416 832 coins | 13.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 50 | $210 420 coins | 13.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $117 234 coins | 14.8% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [MP9 \| Pandora's Box (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-pandoras-box-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $90.84 182 coins | 23.0% | 1 | 0.6 | — | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-bright-water-field-tested) | 10.0% | $62.66 125 coins | 19.8% | 0 | 0.8 | — | | [P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-factory-new) | 22.0% | $22.31 44.61 coins | 15.5% | 4 | 1.8 | 2.27× | | [XM1014 \| Blue Spruce (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-blue-spruce-field-tested) | 53.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 3 | 4.2 | 0.71× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=seabreeze) **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $35.14 | 89.99% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 35.0% covert knife 4.0% mil spec 8.0% consumer 53.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. 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