--- title: "Seasonal Supply case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Seasonal Supply ($15.44) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 14 items with odds, observed 96.95% over 761 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/seasonal-supply rendered: 2026-11-12T07:49Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Seasonal Supply](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/seasonal-supply) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Seasonal Supply A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/seasonal-supply?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/seasonal-supply?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/seasonal-supply) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/seasonal-supply?window=all) Price · $15.44 · 30.88 coins Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $13.90 from 14 items Observed RTP, 30d · 96.95% · 761 openings, odds method Variance · 9.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 18 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 88.6% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 38 openings · below min 7 days · 100.56% ±25.91 539 openings 30 days · 96.95% ±21.81 761 openings since tracking started · 96.95% ±21.81 761 openings 15.0% 113.3% 211.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/seasonal-supply?window=24h) | 38 | 113.13% ±97.6 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/seasonal-supply?window=7d) | 539 | 100.56% ±25.9 | +0.8σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/seasonal-supply) | 761 | 96.95% ±21.8 | +0.6σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/seasonal-supply?window=all) | 761 | 96.95% ±21.8 | +0.6σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 761 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,317 2,634 coins | 0.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,197 2,393 coins | 0.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,138 2,277 coins | 0.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,138 2,276 coins | 0.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,119 2,238 coins | 0.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 2,857 | $747 1,494 coins | 1.9% | 1 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Jade (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-jade-factory-new) | 1 in 2,857 | $746 1,493 coins | 1.9% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 2,857 | $721 1,443 coins | 1.8% | 1 | 0.3 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-skeleton-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 2,857 | $710 1,420 coins | 1.8% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [Charm \| Titeenium AWP charm · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-titeenium-awp) | 1 in 100 | $226 451 coins | 16.2% | 9 | 7.6 | 1.18× | | [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 80 | $153 307 coins | 13.8% | 11 | 9.5 | 1.16× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Night (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-night-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $63.17 126 coins | 13.6% | 24 | 22.8 | 1.05× | | [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $26.67 53.34 coins | 11.5% | 45 | 45.7 | 0.99× | | [Glock-18 \| Vogue (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-factory-new) | 88.6% | $5.21 10.42 coins | 33.2% | 670 | 673.9 | 0.99× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 12 Nov, 02:06 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $15.44 30.88 coins $747 1,494 coins 48.39x 2026-11-08 22:51 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-field-tested) Hidden $15.44 30.88 coins $721 1,443 coins 46.72x 2026-11-04 12:08 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=seasonal-supply) [Glock-18 | Vogue (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-factory-new) Hidden $15.44 30.88 coins $5.21 10.42 coins 0.34x 2026-11-11 17:32 UTC [Glock-18 | Vogue (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-factory-new) Hidden $15.44 30.88 coins $5.21 10.42 coins 0.34x 2026-11-11 17:32 UTC [Glock-18 | Vogue (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-factory-new) Hidden $15.44 30.88 coins $5.21 10.42 coins 0.34x 2026-11-11 17:32 UTC [Glock-18 | Vogue (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-factory-new) Hidden $15.44 30.88 coins $5.21 10.42 coins 0.34x 2026-11-11 17:32 UTC [Glock-18 | Vogue (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-factory-new) Hidden $15.44 30.88 coins $5.21 10.42 coins 0.34x 2026-11-11 17:32 UTC [Glock-18 | Vogue (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-factory-new) Hidden $15.44 30.88 coins $5.21 10.42 coins 0.34x 2026-11-11 17:32 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $15.44 30.88 coins $153 307 coins 9.93x 2026-11-11 17:32 UTC [Glock-18 | Vogue (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-factory-new) Hidden $15.44 30.88 coins $5.21 10.42 coins 0.34x 2026-11-11 17:32 UTC [Glock-18 | Vogue (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-factory-new) Hidden $15.44 30.88 coins $5.21 10.42 coins 0.34x 2026-11-11 17:29 UTC [Glock-18 | Vogue (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-factory-new) Hidden $15.44 30.88 coins $5.21 10.42 coins 0.34x 2026-11-11 17:29 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $15.44 | 89.99% | 14 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 1.4% legendary 0.0% Covert 0.0% Legendary 89.6% covert knife 3.0% classified 6.0% best hit $747 (48.39x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt