--- title: "Shadow Battler case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Shadow Battler ($226.70) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 16 items with odds, observed 91.17% over 6 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/shadow-battler rendered: 2026-11-11T17:06Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Shadow Battler](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/shadow-battler) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Shadow Battler A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/shadow-battler?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/shadow-battler?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/shadow-battler) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/shadow-battler?window=all) Price · $226.70 · 453 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $204.03 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · 91.17% · 6 openings, odds method Variance · 0.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 37.5% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 75.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 6 openings · below min 30 days · 6 openings · below min since tracking started · 6 openings · below min 60.0% 91.3% 122.5% **Small sample.** 6 openings and 2.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/shadow-battler?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/shadow-battler?window=7d) | 6 | 91.17% ±30.5 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/shadow-battler) | 6 | 91.17% ±30.5 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/shadow-battler?window=all) | 6 | 91.17% ±30.5 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 16 | $493 986 coins | 15.1% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 16 | $242 484 coins | 7.4% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 16 | $236 472 coins | 7.2% | 1 | 0.4 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) StatTrak · knife · Knives · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 16 | $235 470 coins | 7.2% | 1 | 0.4 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Case Hardened (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 16 | $223 447 coins | 6.8% | 1 | 0.4 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) StatTrak · knife · #ffd700 · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 16 | $213 427 coins | 6.5% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) StatTrak · knife · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 16 | $213 426 coins | 6.5% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 16 | $210 420 coins | 6.4% | 2 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 16 | $209 418 coins | 6.4% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) StatTrak · knife · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 16 | $202 405 coins | 6.2% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 16 | $134 267 coins | 4.1% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Boreal Forest (Factory New) StatTrak · knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-boreal-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 16 | $133 267 coins | 4.1% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-forest-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 16 | $133 267 coins | 4.1% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Black Laminate (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-black-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 16 | $132 264 coins | 4.0% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 16 | $129 258 coins | 3.9% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 16 | $125 251 coins | 3.8% | 1 | 0.4 | — | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=shadow-battler) [★ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) Hidden $227 453 coins $210 420 coins 0.93x 2026-11-08 14:44 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Damascus Steel (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-damascus-steel-factory-new) Hidden $227 453 coins $125 251 coins 0.55x 2026-11-08 14:44 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Case Hardened (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-case-hardened-factory-new) Hidden $227 453 coins $223 447 coins 0.99x 2026-11-08 14:44 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) Hidden $227 453 coins $210 420 coins 0.93x 2026-11-08 14:44 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) StatTrak · knife · Knives · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) Hidden $227 453 coins $235 470 coins 1.04x 2026-11-08 14:44 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) [Brentson](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Brentson) $227 453 coins $236 472 coins 1.04x 2026-11-08 14:44 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $227 | 90.00% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 50.0% Knives 6.3% Covert 6.3% #ffd700 6.3% other 18.8% covert knife 12.5% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt