---
title: "Shadow Boss case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Shadow Boss ($2,279.08) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 12 items with odds, observed 119.16% over 12 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/shadow-boss
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:39Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Shadow Boss](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/shadow-boss)

# [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Shadow Boss

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/shadow-boss?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/shadow-boss?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/shadow-boss) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/shadow-boss?window=all)

Price · $2,279.08 · 4,558 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $2,051.16 from 12 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 119.16% · 12 openings, odds method

Variance · 6.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 17 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 84.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 4 openings · below min

7 days · 12 openings · below min

30 days · 12 openings · below min

since tracking started · 12 openings · below min

-0.5% 131.8% 264.0%

**Small sample.** 12 openings and 0.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/shadow-boss?window=24h) | 4 | 0.09% ±249.9 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/shadow-boss?window=7d) | 12 | 119.16% ±144.3 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/shadow-boss) | 12 | 119.16% ±144.3 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/shadow-boss?window=all) | 12 | 119.16% ±144.3 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $36.3K 72,651 coins | 35.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Howl (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-howl-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $10.9K 21,888 coins | 10.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $9,398 18,795 coins | 9.2% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 50 | $9,356 18,711 coins | 9.1% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [AWP \| Gungnir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $9,355 18,710 coins | 9.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $9,318 18,637 coins | 9.1% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 50 | $7,714 15,428 coins | 7.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 50 | $6,648 13,296 coins | 6.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · Covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 50 | $2,251 4,502 coins | 2.2% | 2 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 50 | $1,170 2,340 coins | 1.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [Sawed-Off \| Bamboo Shadow (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-bamboo-shadow-factory-new) | 40.0% | $2.62 5.23 coins | 0.1% | 4 | 4.8 | 0.83× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Bamboo Shadow (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-bamboo-shadow-field-tested) | 40.0% | $1.33 2.66 coins | 0.0% | 3 | 4.8 | 0.62× |

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) [pooop](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/pooop) $2,279 4,558 coins $9,398 18,795 coins 4.12x 2026-11-06 17:45 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $2,279 4,558 coins $9,356 18,711 coins 4.11x 2026-11-06 17:45 UTC

[AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) Hidden $2,279 4,558 coins $9,318 18,637 coins 4.09x 2026-11-06 17:45 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · Covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $2,279 4,558 coins $2,251 4,502 coins 0.99x 2026-11-06 17:45 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · Covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $2,279 4,558 coins $2,251 4,502 coins 0.99x 2026-11-06 17:45 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=shadow-boss)

[Sawed-Off | Bamboo Shadow (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-bamboo-shadow-field-tested) Hidden $2,279 4,558 coins $1.33 2.66 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 16:31 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Bamboo Shadow (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-bamboo-shadow-factory-new) Hidden $2,279 4,558 coins $2.62 5.23 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 16:31 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Bamboo Shadow (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-bamboo-shadow-field-tested) Hidden $2,279 4,558 coins $1.33 2.66 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 16:31 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Bamboo Shadow (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-bamboo-shadow-factory-new) [Sanityy](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Sanityy) $2,279 4,558 coins $2.62 5.23 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 16:31 UTC

[AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) Hidden $2,279 4,558 coins $9,318 18,637 coins 4.09x 2026-11-06 17:45 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · Covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $2,279 4,558 coins $2,251 4,502 coins 0.99x 2026-11-06 17:45 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · Covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $2,279 4,558 coins $2,251 4,502 coins 0.99x 2026-11-06 17:45 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Bamboo Shadow (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-bamboo-shadow-factory-new) Hidden $2,279 4,558 coins $2.62 5.23 coins 0.00x 2026-11-06 17:45 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) [pooop](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/pooop) $2,279 4,558 coins $9,398 18,795 coins 4.12x 2026-11-06 17:45 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Bamboo Shadow (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-bamboo-shadow-factory-new) Hidden $2,279 4,558 coins $2.62 5.23 coins 0.00x 2026-11-06 17:45 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $2,279 | 90.00% | 12 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed legendary 2.0% contraband 2.0% covert 14.0% Covert 2.0% Consumer Grade 40.0% gray 40.0% best hit $9,398 (4.12x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt