--- title: "Shadow Dingles case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Shadow Dingles ($10.37) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 16 items with odds, observed 99.81% over 153 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/shadow-dingles rendered: 2026-11-11T15:15Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Shadow Dingles](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/shadow-dingles) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Shadow Dingles A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/shadow-dingles?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/shadow-dingles?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/shadow-dingles) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/shadow-dingles?window=all) Price · $10.37 · 20.73 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $9.33 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · 99.81% · 153 openings, odds method Variance · 3.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 11.1% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 68.9% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 22 openings · below min 7 days · 103.07% ±30.89 136 openings 30 days · 99.81% ±29.12 153 openings since tracking started · 99.81% ±29.12 153 openings 43.0% 120.5% 198.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/shadow-dingles?window=24h) | 22 | 120.32% ±76.8 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/shadow-dingles?window=7d) | 136 | 103.07% ±30.9 | +0.8σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/shadow-dingles) | 153 | 99.81% ±29.1 | +0.7σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/shadow-dingles?window=all) | 153 | 99.81% ±29.1 | +0.7σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 153 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 300 | $242 484 coins | 8.7% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 250 | $128 256 coins | 5.5% | 3 | 0.6 | — | | [Souvenir AWP \| Pit Viper (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-pit-viper-well-worn) | 1 in 250 | $75.06 150 coins | 3.2% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [M4A4 \| Desert Storm (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desert-storm-factory-new) | 10.0% | $34.17 68.34 coins | 36.6% | 16 | 15.3 | 1.05× | | [SSG 08 \| Threat Detected (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-threat-detected-factory-new) | 20.0% | $14.53 29.05 coins | 31.1% | 29 | 30.6 | 0.95× | | [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-field-tested) | 22.0% | $5.89 11.78 coins | 13.9% | 37 | 33.7 | 1.10× | | [Dual Berettas \| Cartel (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cartel-factory-new) | 1 in 30 | $0.81 1.63 coins | 0.3% | 3 | 5.0 | 0.59× | | [Dual Berettas \| Balance (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-balance-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $0.72 1.44 coins | 0.3% | 6 | 6.1 | 0.98× | | [Dual Berettas \| Melondrama (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-melondrama-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $0.71 1.43 coins | 0.3% | 8 | 6.1 | 1.31× | | [SG 553 \| Danger Close (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-danger-close-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $0.04 0.09 coins | 0.0% | 8 | 7.6 | 1.05× | | [PP-Bizon \| Facility Sketch (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-facility-sketch-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $0.04 0.07 coins | 0.0% | 7 | 7.6 | 0.92× | | [MP9 \| Orange Peel (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-orange-peel-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $0.03 0.05 coins | 0.0% | 7 | 7.6 | 0.92× | | [Nova \| Polar Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-polar-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $0.02 0.04 coins | 0.0% | 5 | 7.6 | 0.65× | | [MAC-10 \| Monkeyflage (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-monkeyflage-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $0.01 0.03 coins | 0.0% | 9 | 7.6 | 1.18× | | [SCAR-20 \| Contractor (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-contractor-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.0% | 10 | 7.6 | 1.31× | | [AUG \| Sweeper (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-sweeper-factory-new) | 1 in 18 | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 5 | 8.5 | 0.59× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=shadow-dingles) [SG 553 | Danger Close (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-danger-close-field-tested) Hidden $10.37 20.73 coins $0.04 0.09 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:37 UTC [AUG | Sweeper (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-sweeper-factory-new) Hidden $10.37 20.73 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:37 UTC [AUG | Sweeper (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-sweeper-factory-new) Hidden $10.37 20.73 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:37 UTC [SSG 08 | Threat Detected (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-threat-detected-factory-new) [Moon1025](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Moon1025) $10.37 20.73 coins $14.53 29.05 coins 1.40x 2026-11-11 11:37 UTC [SSG 08 | Threat Detected (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-threat-detected-factory-new) Hidden $10.37 20.73 coins $14.53 29.05 coins 1.40x 2026-11-11 10:42 UTC [Dual Berettas | Cartel (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cartel-factory-new) Hidden $10.37 20.73 coins $0.81 1.63 coins 0.08x 2026-11-11 10:42 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Damascus Steel (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) Hidden $10.37 20.73 coins $128 256 coins 12.33x 2026-11-11 10:42 UTC [M4A4 | Desert Storm (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desert-storm-factory-new) Hidden $10.37 20.73 coins $34.17 68.34 coins 3.30x 2026-11-11 10:42 UTC [Dual Berettas | Balance (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-balance-field-tested) Hidden $10.37 20.73 coins $0.72 1.44 coins 0.07x 2026-11-11 10:42 UTC [Dual Berettas | Balance (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-balance-field-tested) [chakhna](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/chakhna) $10.37 20.73 coins $0.72 1.44 coins 0.07x 2026-11-11 10:42 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $10.37 | 90.00% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.3% covert knife 0.4% Restricted 0.4% industrial 15.0% Rare 20.0% classified 22.0% mil spec 7.3% pink 4.0% milspec 10.0% consumer 15.0% Common 5.6% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt