--- title: "Shatter case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Shatter ($9.14) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.96% from 8 items with odds, observed 98.07% over 279 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/shatter rendered: 2026-11-11T15:39Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Shatter](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/shatter) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Shatter A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/shatter?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/shatter?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/shatter) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/shatter?window=all) Price · $9.14 · 18.27 coins Advertised RTP · 89.96% · EV $8.22 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 98.07% · 279 openings, odds method Variance · 6.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 14 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 16 openings · below min 7 days · 95.65% ±30.16 270 openings 30 days · 98.07% ±29.67 279 openings since tracking started · 98.07% ±29.67 279 openings -0.5% 92.5% 185.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/shatter?window=24h) | 16 | 60.76% ±123.9 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/shatter?window=7d) | 270 | 95.65% ±30.2 | +0.4σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/shatter) | 279 | 98.07% ±29.7 | +0.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/shatter?window=all) | 279 | 98.07% ±29.7 | +0.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 279 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-black-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $111 222 coins | 13.5% | 4 | 2.8 | 1.43× | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Eclipse (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-eclipse-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $102 204 coins | 12.4% | 2 | 2.8 | 0.72× | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $83.88 168 coins | 10.2% | 3 | 2.8 | 1.08× | | [Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $75.38 151 coins | 9.2% | 3 | 2.8 | 1.08× | | [MP9 \| Stained Glass (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-stained-glass-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $68.12 136 coins | 24.9% | 6 | 8.4 | 0.72× | | [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Shattered (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-shattered-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $59.36 119 coins | 21.7% | 13 | 8.4 | 1.55× | | [M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-field-tested) | 25.0% | $2.68 5.35 coins | 8.1% | 72 | 69.8 | 1.03× | | [MAG-7 \| Rust Coat (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-rust-coat-factory-new) | 65.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 176 | 181.3 | 0.97× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=shatter) [MAG-7 | Rust Coat (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-rust-coat-factory-new) Hidden $9.14 18.27 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 09:41 UTC [MAG-7 | Rust Coat (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-rust-coat-factory-new) Hidden $9.14 18.27 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 09:41 UTC [MAG-7 | Rust Coat (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-rust-coat-factory-new) Hidden $9.14 18.27 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 09:41 UTC [M4A1-S | Leaded Glass (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-field-tested) Hidden $9.14 18.27 coins $2.68 5.35 coins 0.29x 2026-11-11 09:41 UTC [M4A1-S | Leaded Glass (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-field-tested) Hidden $9.14 18.27 coins $2.68 5.35 coins 0.29x 2026-11-11 09:41 UTC [MAG-7 | Rust Coat (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-rust-coat-factory-new) Hidden $9.14 18.27 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 09:41 UTC [M4A1-S | Leaded Glass (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-field-tested) Hidden $9.14 18.27 coins $2.68 5.35 coins 0.29x 2026-11-11 09:41 UTC [MAG-7 | Rust Coat (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-rust-coat-factory-new) [kruley](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/kruley) $9.14 18.27 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 09:41 UTC [MAG-7 | Rust Coat (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-rust-coat-factory-new) Hidden $9.14 18.27 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 09:41 UTC [MAG-7 | Rust Coat (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-rust-coat-factory-new) Hidden $9.14 18.27 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 09:41 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $9.14 | 89.96% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed sunny 1.0% extraordinary 1.0% covert 2.0% restricted 3.0% #4b69ff 3.0% classified 25.0% Consumer Grade 65.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.96 on average: an expected loss of $10.04 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt