---
title: "Shell case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Shell ($10.23) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.98% from 16 items with odds, observed 98.32% over 1,188 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/shell
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:14Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Shell](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/shell)

# [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Shell

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/shell?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/shell?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/shell) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/shell?window=all)

Price · $10.23 · 20.45 coins

Advertised RTP · 89.98% · EV $9.20 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 98.32% · 1,188 openings, odds method

Variance · 18.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 36 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 85.2% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 78.33% ±61.33 184 openings

7 days · 94.63% ±27.05 946 openings

30 days · 98.32% ±24.14 1,188 openings

since tracking started · 98.32% ±24.14 1,188 openings

16.5% 78.5% 140.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/shell?window=24h) | 184 | 78.33% ±61.3 | −0.4σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/shell?window=7d) | 946 | 94.63% ±27.0 | +0.3σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/shell) | 1,188 | 98.32% ±24.1 | +0.7σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/shell?window=all) | 1,188 | 98.32% ±24.1 | +0.7σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,196 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-skeleton-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,252 2,504 coins | 6.8% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Night Stripe (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-night-stripe-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $554 1,107 coins | 6.0% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.84× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Black Laminate (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-black-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $411 822 coins | 4.5% | 2 | 1.2 | 1.67× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Scorched (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-scorched-factory-new) | 1 in 667 | $352 705 coins | 5.7% | 3 | 1.8 | 1.67× |
| [★ Classic Knife \| Night Stripe (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-night-stripe-factory-new) | 1 in 667 | $251 502 coins | 4.1% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.56× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Field Agent (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-field-agent-field-tested) | 1 in 400 | $176 352 coins | 4.8% | 1 | 3.0 | 0.33× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Scorched (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-stiletto-knife-scorched-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $141 282 coins | 7.7% | 6 | 6.0 | 1.00× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Scorched (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-scorched-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $100 200 coins | 5.4% | 7 | 6.0 | 1.17× |
| [Souvenir M4A1-S \| Nitro (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-nitro-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $75.07 150 coins | 8.2% | 11 | 12.0 | 0.92× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 80 | $57.57 115 coins | 7.8% | 12 | 15.0 | 0.80× |
| [AK-47 \| Predator (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-predator-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $46.41 92.81 coins | 10.1% | 30 | 23.9 | 1.25× |
| [UMP-45 \| Caramel (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-caramel-factory-new) | 1 in 44 | $38.12 76.23 coins | 9.3% | 29 | 26.9 | 1.08× |
| [Glock-18 \| Night (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-night-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $27.98 55.96 coins | 7.6% | 34 | 29.9 | 1.14× |
| [P250 \| Crimson Kimono (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-crimson-kimono-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $13.36 26.72 coins | 5.8% | 54 | 47.8 | 1.13× |
| [SG 553 \| Wave Spray (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-wave-spray-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $5.51 11.01 coins | 3.1% | 62 | 62.2 | 1.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Warhawk (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-warhawk-factory-new) | 80.0% | $0.35 0.71 coins | 3.1% | 942 | 956.8 | 0.98× |

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-skeleton-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $10.23 20.45 coins $1,252 2,504 coins 122.4x 2026-11-05 00:50 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Night Stripe (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-night-stripe-factory-new) Hidden $10.23 20.45 coins $554 1,107 coins 54.15x 2026-11-04 06:15 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=shell)

[Glock-18 | Warhawk (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-warhawk-factory-new) Hidden $10.23 20.45 coins $0.35 0.71 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 02:25 UTC

[Glock-18 | Warhawk (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-warhawk-factory-new) Hidden $10.23 20.45 coins $0.35 0.71 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 02:25 UTC

[Glock-18 | Warhawk (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-warhawk-factory-new) Hidden $10.23 20.45 coins $0.35 0.71 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 02:25 UTC

[Glock-18 | Warhawk (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-warhawk-factory-new) Hidden $10.23 20.45 coins $0.35 0.71 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 02:25 UTC

[Glock-18 | Warhawk (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-warhawk-factory-new) [Apex5887](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Apex5887) $10.23 20.45 coins $0.35 0.71 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 02:25 UTC

[Glock-18 | Warhawk (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-warhawk-factory-new) Hidden $10.23 20.45 coins $0.35 0.71 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 02:25 UTC

[Glock-18 | Warhawk (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-warhawk-factory-new) Hidden $10.23 20.45 coins $0.35 0.71 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 01:04 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Scorched (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-scorched-factory-new) Hidden $10.23 20.45 coins $352 705 coins 34.46x 2026-11-11 01:04 UTC

[Glock-18 | Warhawk (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-warhawk-factory-new) Hidden $10.23 20.45 coins $0.35 0.71 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 01:04 UTC

[Glock-18 | Warhawk (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-warhawk-factory-new) Hidden $10.23 20.45 coins $0.35 0.71 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 01:04 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $10.23 | 89.98% | 16 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 2.2% covert knife 0.6% extraordinary 0.3% restricted 1.0% industrial 8.5% consumer 2.3% Rare 5.2% mil spec 80.0% best hit $1,252 (122.4x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.98 on average: an expected loss of $10.02 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt