---
title: "Shock case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Shock ($457.35) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 18 items with odds, observed 69.65% over 20 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/shock
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:48Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Shock](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/shock)

# [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Shock

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/shock?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/shock?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/shock) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/shock?window=all)

Price · $457.35 · 915 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $411.61 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 69.65% · 20 openings, odds method

Variance · 2.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 12.8% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 63.2% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 20 openings · below min

30 days · 20 openings · below min

since tracking started · 20 openings · below min

-0.5% 72.3% 145.0%

**Small sample.** 20 openings and 2.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/shock?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/shock?window=7d) | 20 | 69.65% ±74.9 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/shock) | 20 | 69.65% ±74.9 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/shock?window=all) | 20 | 69.65% ±74.9 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 20 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 1,000 | $10.6K 21,246 coins | 2.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 1,000 | $9,356 18,711 coins | 2.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 1,000 | $7,752 15,504 coins | 1.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Amphibious (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-amphibious-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $4,806 9,611 coins | 5.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 200 | $3,617 7,234 coins | 4.4% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · Covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 200 | $2,251 4,502 coins | 2.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Cobalt Skulls (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-cobalt-skulls-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $1,788 3,576 coins | 4.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 20 | $1,237 2,473 coins | 15.0% | 0 | 1.0 | 0.00× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 20 | $1,138 2,277 coins | 13.8% | 1 | 1.0 | 1.00× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $870 1,740 coins | 12.7% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 17 | $835 1,669 coins | 12.2% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Polygon (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-polygon-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $721 1,443 coins | 10.5% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.83× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 17 | $554 1,109 coins | 8.1% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.83× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) StatTrak · knife · Knives · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 20 | $235 470 coins | 2.9% | 1 | 1.0 | 1.00× |
| [USP-S \| Royal Blue (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-blue-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $39.94 79.87 coins | 0.5% | 1 | 1.0 | 1.00× |
| [AWP \| Sun in Leo (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-sun-in-leo-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $18.99 37.97 coins | 0.2% | 3 | 1.0 | 3.00× |
| [Galil AR \| Stone Cold (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-stone-cold-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $4.59 9.17 coins | 0.1% | 1 | 1.0 | 1.00× |
| [MAC-10 \| Lapis Gator (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-lapis-gator-field-tested) | 43.2% | $0.36 0.73 coins | 0.0% | 10 | 8.6 | 1.16× |

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $457 915 coins $3,617 7,234 coins 7.91x 2026-11-04 18:29 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $457 915 coins $1,138 2,277 coins 2.49x 2026-11-04 18:29 UTC

[★ Moto Gloves | Polygon (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-polygon-factory-new) Hidden $457 915 coins $721 1,443 coins 1.58x 2026-11-04 18:29 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $457 915 coins $554 1,109 coins 1.21x 2026-11-04 18:34 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=shock)

[Galil AR | Stone Cold (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-stone-cold-factory-new) Hidden $457 915 coins $4.59 9.17 coins 0.01x 2026-11-04 18:34 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $457 915 coins $554 1,109 coins 1.21x 2026-11-04 18:34 UTC

[USP-S | Royal Blue (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-blue-factory-new) Hidden $457 915 coins $39.94 79.87 coins 0.09x 2026-11-04 18:34 UTC

[AWP | Sun in Leo (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-sun-in-leo-factory-new) Hidden $457 915 coins $18.99 37.97 coins 0.04x 2026-11-04 18:34 UTC

[MAC-10 | Lapis Gator (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-lapis-gator-field-tested) Hidden $457 915 coins $0.36 0.73 coins 0.00x 2026-11-04 18:34 UTC

[MAC-10 | Lapis Gator (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-lapis-gator-field-tested) Hidden $457 915 coins $0.36 0.73 coins 0.00x 2026-11-04 18:34 UTC

[MAC-10 | Lapis Gator (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-lapis-gator-field-tested) Hidden $457 915 coins $0.36 0.73 coins 0.00x 2026-11-04 18:34 UTC

[MAC-10 | Lapis Gator (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-lapis-gator-field-tested) Hidden $457 915 coins $0.36 0.73 coins 0.00x 2026-11-04 18:34 UTC

[MAC-10 | Lapis Gator (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-lapis-gator-field-tested) Hidden $457 915 coins $0.36 0.73 coins 0.00x 2026-11-04 18:29 UTC

[AWP | Sun in Leo (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-sun-in-leo-factory-new) Hidden $457 915 coins $18.99 37.97 coins 0.04x 2026-11-04 18:29 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $457 | 90.00% | 18 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 22.8% extraordinary 0.5% Covert 0.5% legendary 7.0% sunny 6.0% Knives 5.0% industrial 10.0% restricted 5.0% milspec 43.2% best hit $3,617 (7.91x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt