--- title: "Shotty case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Shotty ($13.64) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.98% from 15 items with odds, observed 71.58% over 194 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/shotty rendered: 2026-11-11T14:31Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Shotty](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/shotty) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Shotty A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/shotty?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/shotty?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/shotty) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/shotty?window=all) Price · $13.64 · 27.28 coins Advertised RTP · 89.98% · EV $12.27 from 15 items Observed RTP, 30d · 71.58% · 194 openings, odds method Variance · 4.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 12 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 87.8% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 8 openings · below min 7 days · 65.24% ±30.61 162 openings 30 days · 71.58% ±27.97 194 openings since tracking started · 71.58% ±27.97 194 openings -0.5% 99.3% 199.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/shotty?window=24h) | 8 | 60.44% ±137.7 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/shotty?window=7d) | 162 | 65.24% ±30.6 | −1.6σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/shotty) | 194 | 71.58% ±28.0 | −1.3σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/shotty?window=all) | 194 | 71.58% ±28.0 | −1.3σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 194 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [MAG-7 \| Cinquedea (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-cinquedea-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $493 987 coins | 4.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Souvenir MAG-7 \| Bulldozer (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mag-7-bulldozer-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $251 501 coins | 4.1% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [StatTrak™ Nova \| Bloomstick (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · #D32CE6](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-bloomstick-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $128 256 coins | 5.2% | 1 | 1.0 | — | | [MAG-7 \| Bulldozer (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-bulldozer-factory-new) | 1 in 143 | $97.15 194 coins | 5.5% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.74× | | [Nova \| Blaze Orange (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-blaze-orange-factory-new) | 1 in 143 | $96.18 192 coins | 5.5% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× | | [Souvenir Nova \| Candy Apple (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-nova-candy-apple-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $93.07 186 coins | 7.6% | 2 | 1.9 | 1.03× | | [XM1014 \| Elegant Vines (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-elegant-vines-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $47.66 95.32 coins | 19.4% | 9 | 9.7 | 0.93× | | [Nova \| Bloomstick (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-bloomstick-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $39.43 78.85 coins | 12.8% | 4 | 7.8 | 0.52× | | [MAG-7 \| Silver (Factory New) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-silver-factory-new) | 15.0% | $11.21 22.41 coins | 13.7% | 27 | 29.1 | 0.93× | | [Nova \| Green Apple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-green-apple-factory-new) | 11.0% | $10.01 20.02 coins | 9.0% | 26 | 21.3 | 1.22× | | [XM1014 \| Grassland (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-grassland-factory-new) | 11.0% | $9.92 19.84 coins | 8.9% | 23 | 21.3 | 1.08× | | [Sawed-Off \| Sage Spray (Factory New) weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-sage-spray-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $3.01 6.01 coins | 2.0% | 17 | 15.5 | 1.10× | | [MAG-7 \| Praetorian (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-praetorian-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $1.94 3.87 coins | 0.9% | 10 | 11.6 | 0.86× | | [XM1014 \| Ziggy (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-ziggy-factory-new) | 11.8% | $0.98 1.97 coins | 0.9% | 26 | 22.9 | 1.14× | | [Sawed-Off \| Origami (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-origami-factory-new) | 25.0% | $0.20 0.39 coins | 0.4% | 48 | 48.5 | 0.99× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=shotty) [Sawed-Off | Sage Spray (Factory New) weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-sage-spray-factory-new) Hidden $13.64 27.28 coins $3.01 6.01 coins 0.22x 2026-11-10 16:01 UTC [Sawed-Off | Origami (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-origami-factory-new) Hidden $13.64 27.28 coins $0.20 0.39 coins 0.01x 2026-11-10 16:01 UTC [Nova | Green Apple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-green-apple-factory-new) Hidden $13.64 27.28 coins $10.01 20.02 coins 0.73x 2026-11-10 16:01 UTC [Sawed-Off | Origami (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-origami-factory-new) Hidden $13.64 27.28 coins $0.20 0.39 coins 0.01x 2026-11-10 16:01 UTC [Sawed-Off | Sage Spray (Factory New) weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-sage-spray-factory-new) Hidden $13.64 27.28 coins $3.01 6.01 coins 0.22x 2026-11-10 16:01 UTC [Nova | Bloomstick (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-bloomstick-factory-new) Hidden $13.64 27.28 coins $39.43 78.85 coins 2.89x 2026-11-10 16:01 UTC [Sawed-Off | Origami (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-origami-factory-new) Hidden $13.64 27.28 coins $0.20 0.39 coins 0.01x 2026-11-10 16:01 UTC [XM1014 | Grassland (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-grassland-factory-new) [Sorhex](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Sorhex) $13.64 27.28 coins $9.92 19.84 coins 0.73x 2026-11-10 16:01 UTC [Sawed-Off | Origami (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-origami-factory-new) [sperma](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/sperma) $13.64 27.28 coins $0.20 0.39 coins 0.01x 2026-11-09 22:40 UTC [Nova | Green Apple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-green-apple-factory-new) Hidden $13.64 27.28 coins $10.01 20.02 coins 0.73x 2026-11-09 22:40 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $13.64 | 89.98% | 15 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 4.1% restricted 6.9% #D32CE6 0.5% mil spec 25.7% industrial 12.0% violet 16.8% #87c7ff 15.0% Consumer Grade 11.0% other 8.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.98 on average: an expected loss of $10.02 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt