--- title: "Sidearms case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Sidearms ($36.66) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 13 items with odds, observed 92.06% over 6 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/sidearms rendered: 2026-11-11T13:11Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Sidearms](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/sidearms) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Sidearms A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/sidearms?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/sidearms?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/sidearms) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/sidearms?window=all) Price · $36.66 · 73.32 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $32.99 from 13 items Observed RTP, 30d · 92.06% · 6 openings, odds method Variance · 2.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 20.3% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 49.7% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 6 openings · below min 30 days · 6 openings · below min since tracking started · 6 openings · below min -0.5% 107.5% 215.5% **Small sample.** 6 openings and 1.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/sidearms?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/sidearms?window=7d) | 6 | 92.06% ±122.7 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/sidearms) | 6 | 92.06% ±122.7 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/sidearms?window=all) | 6 | 92.06% ±122.7 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Glock-18 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,182 2,363 coins | 3.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Souvenir Desert Eagle \| Hand Cannon (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-desert-eagle-hand-cannon-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $660 1,320 coins | 4.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Desert Eagle \| Pilot (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-pilot-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $98.39 197 coins | 14.9% | 1 | 0.3 | — | | [Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $93.95 188 coins | 14.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [Glock-18 \| Dragon Tattoo (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-dragon-tattoo-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $59.03 118 coins | 8.9% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [Glock-18 \| Pink DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-pink-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $56.28 113 coins | 8.5% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [Souvenir Glock-18 \| Pink DDPAT (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-pink-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $54.10 108 coins | 8.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) weapon · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 20 | $52.17 104 coins | 7.9% | 1 | 0.3 | — | | [Souvenir Glock-18 \| Groundwater (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-groundwater-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $50.13 100 coins | 7.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $49.36 98.71 coins | 7.5% | 1 | 0.3 | — | | [Desert Eagle \| Pilot (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-pilot-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $48.62 97.23 coins | 7.4% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [Desert Eagle \| Night (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-night-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $39.25 78.5 coins | 5.9% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [Desert Eagle \| Naga (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-naga-field-tested) | 49.7% | $0.86 1.73 coins | 1.3% | 3 | 3.0 | 1.01× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=sidearms) [Desert Eagle | Code Red (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-factory-new) Hidden $36.66 73.32 coins $49.36 98.71 coins 1.35x 2026-11-05 02:15 UTC [Desert Eagle | Naga (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-naga-field-tested) Hidden $36.66 73.32 coins $0.86 1.73 coins 0.02x 2026-11-05 02:15 UTC [Glock-18 | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) weapon · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $36.66 73.32 coins $52.17 104 coins 1.42x 2026-11-05 02:15 UTC [Desert Eagle | Naga (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-naga-field-tested) Hidden $36.66 73.32 coins $0.86 1.73 coins 0.02x 2026-11-05 02:15 UTC [Desert Eagle | Pilot (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-pilot-factory-new) Hidden $36.66 73.32 coins $98.39 197 coins 2.68x 2026-11-05 02:15 UTC [Desert Eagle | Naga (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-naga-field-tested) [Insin](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Insin) $36.66 73.32 coins $0.86 1.73 coins 0.02x 2026-11-05 02:15 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $36.66 | 90.00% | 13 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed restricted 75.0% covert 15.0% Industrial Grade 5.0% industrial 5.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt