--- title: "Sieg case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Sieg ($5.14) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.92% from 8 items with odds, observed 87.13% over 37.1K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/sieg rendered: 2026-11-11T13:49Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Sieg](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/sieg) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Sieg A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/sieg?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/sieg?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/sieg) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/sieg?window=all) Price · $5.14 · 10.28 coins Advertised RTP · 89.92% · EV $4.62 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 87.13% · 37.1K openings, odds method Variance · 105.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 151 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 99.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 94.62% ±33.45 3,608 openings 7 days · 87.72% ±11.69 29.5K openings 30 days · 87.13% ±10.43 37.1K openings since tracking started · 87.13% ±10.43 37.1K openings 60.5% 94.5% 128.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/sieg?window=24h) | 3,608 | 94.62% ±33.5 | +0.3σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/sieg?window=7d) | 29.5K | 87.72% ±11.7 | −0.4σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/sieg) | 37.1K | 87.13% ±10.4 | −0.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/sieg?window=all) | 37.1K | 87.13% ±10.4 | −0.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 37.2K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Charm \| Chicken Lil' charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-chicken-lil) | 1 in 100,000 | $5,000 10,000 coins | 1.1% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 100,000 | $4,916 9,833 coins | 1.1% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [AWP \| Medusa (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $4,198 8,395 coins | 0.9% | 1 | 0.4 | — | | [Souvenir AWP \| Desert Hydra (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $2,792 5,584 coins | 0.6% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| BOOM (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-boom-factory-new) | 1 in 303 | $557 1,113 coins | 39.7% | 120 | 122.6 | 0.98× | | [Souvenir AWP \| Pink DDPAT (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-pink-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 303 | $424 847 coins | 30.2% | 105 | 122.6 | 0.86× | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Doodle Lore (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-doodle-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 298 | $361 722 coins | 26.2% | 140 | 124.8 | 1.12× | | [G3SG1 \| VariCamo (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-varicamo-field-tested) | 99.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.1% | 36,791 | 36785.4 | 1.00× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AWP | Medusa (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-factory-new) Hidden $5.14 10.28 coins $4,198 8,395 coins 816.7x 2026-11-09 11:17 UTC [StatTrak™ AWP | BOOM (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-boom-factory-new) Hidden $5.14 10.28 coins $557 1,113 coins 108.3x 2026-11-11 13:32 UTC [StatTrak™ AWP | BOOM (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-boom-factory-new) Hidden $5.14 10.28 coins $557 1,113 coins 108.3x 2026-11-11 13:14 UTC [StatTrak™ AWP | BOOM (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-boom-factory-new) Hidden $5.14 10.28 coins $557 1,113 coins 108.3x 2026-11-11 13:14 UTC [StatTrak™ AWP | BOOM (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-boom-factory-new) Hidden $5.14 10.28 coins $557 1,113 coins 108.3x 2026-11-11 10:45 UTC [StatTrak™ AWP | BOOM (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-boom-factory-new) Hidden $5.14 10.28 coins $557 1,113 coins 108.3x 2026-11-11 10:37 UTC [StatTrak™ AWP | BOOM (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-boom-factory-new) Hidden $5.14 10.28 coins $557 1,113 coins 108.3x 2026-11-11 10:27 UTC [StatTrak™ AWP | BOOM (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-boom-factory-new) Hidden $5.14 10.28 coins $557 1,113 coins 108.3x 2026-11-11 09:39 UTC [StatTrak™ AWP | BOOM (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-boom-factory-new) Hidden $5.14 10.28 coins $557 1,113 coins 108.3x 2026-11-11 01:02 UTC [StatTrak™ AWP | BOOM (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-boom-factory-new) Hidden $5.14 10.28 coins $557 1,113 coins 108.3x 2026-11-11 01:01 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=sieg) [G3SG1 | VariCamo (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-varicamo-field-tested) Hidden $5.14 10.28 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:48 UTC [G3SG1 | VariCamo (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-varicamo-field-tested) Hidden $5.14 10.28 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:48 UTC [G3SG1 | VariCamo (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-varicamo-field-tested) Hidden $5.14 10.28 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:48 UTC [G3SG1 | VariCamo (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-varicamo-field-tested) Hidden $5.14 10.28 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:48 UTC [G3SG1 | VariCamo (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-varicamo-field-tested) Hidden $5.14 10.28 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:48 UTC [G3SG1 | VariCamo (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-varicamo-field-tested) Hidden $5.14 10.28 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:48 UTC [G3SG1 | VariCamo (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-varicamo-field-tested) Hidden $5.14 10.28 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:48 UTC [G3SG1 | VariCamo (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-varicamo-field-tested) Hidden $5.14 10.28 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:48 UTC [G3SG1 | VariCamo (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-varicamo-field-tested) Hidden $5.14 10.28 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:48 UTC [G3SG1 | VariCamo (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-varicamo-field-tested) Hidden $5.14 10.28 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:48 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $5.14 | 89.92% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed uncommon 0.0% covert 0.0% Classified 0.3% Restricted 0.3% other 0.3% industrial 99.0% best hit $4,198 (816.7x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.92 on average: an expected loss of $10.08 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt