--- title: "Siege Cache case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Siege Cache ($28.32) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 14 items with odds, observed 73.72% over 162 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/siege-cache rendered: 2026-11-11T15:49Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Siege Cache](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/siege-cache) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Siege Cache A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/siege-cache?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/siege-cache?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/siege-cache) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/siege-cache?window=all) Price · $28.32 · 56.63 coins Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $25.48 from 14 items Observed RTP, 30d · 73.72% · 162 openings, odds method Variance · 13.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 43 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 97.7% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 40 openings · below min 7 days · 154 openings · below min 30 days · 162 openings · below min since tracking started · 162 openings · below min -0.5% 76.0% 152.5% **Small sample.** 162 openings and 3.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/siege-cache?window=24h) | 40 | 38.87% ±113.2 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/siege-cache?window=7d) | 154 | 75.53% ±57.7 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/siege-cache) | 162 | 73.72% ±56.3 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/siege-cache?window=all) | 162 | 73.72% ±56.3 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 162 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Superconductor (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-superconductor-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $1,534 3,068 coins | 1.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) StatTrak · knife · Covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 5,000 | $1,524 3,048 coins | 1.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) StatTrak · knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 5,000 | $1,520 3,040 coins | 1.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Nocts (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $1,505 3,010 coins | 1.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $1,493 2,987 coins | 1.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Night (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-night-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $1,461 2,922 coins | 1.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Autotronic (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-autotronic-factory-new) | 1 in 3,333 | $1,331 2,662 coins | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Sticker \| Team LDLC.com \| Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-ldlc-com-katowice-2014) | 1 in 3,333 | $1,316 2,632 coins | 1.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 3,333 | $1,227 2,453 coins | 1.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) StatTrak · knife · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 2,500 | $1,227 2,453 coins | 1.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,119 2,238 coins | 2.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Slaughter (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,113 2,226 coins | 2.2% | 1 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-damascus-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $508 1,016 coins | 39.9% | 1 | 3.2 | 0.31× | | [M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-field-tested) | 97.7% | $11.01 22.01 coins | 42.2% | 160 | 158.2 | 1.01× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Hand Wraps | Slaughter (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-slaughter-factory-new) Hidden $28.32 56.63 coins $1,113 2,226 coins 39.30x 2026-11-09 12:43 UTC [★ Karambit | Damascus Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-damascus-steel-field-tested) Hidden $28.32 56.63 coins $508 1,016 coins 17.94x 2026-11-06 19:48 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=siege-cache) [M4A4 | Cyber Security (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-field-tested) Hidden $28.32 56.63 coins $11.01 22.01 coins 0.39x 2026-11-11 02:28 UTC [M4A4 | Cyber Security (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-field-tested) Hidden $28.32 56.63 coins $11.01 22.01 coins 0.39x 2026-11-11 02:28 UTC [M4A4 | Cyber Security (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-field-tested) Hidden $28.32 56.63 coins $11.01 22.01 coins 0.39x 2026-11-11 02:28 UTC [M4A4 | Cyber Security (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-field-tested) Hidden $28.32 56.63 coins $11.01 22.01 coins 0.39x 2026-11-11 02:28 UTC [M4A4 | Cyber Security (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-field-tested) Hidden $28.32 56.63 coins $11.01 22.01 coins 0.39x 2026-11-11 02:28 UTC [M4A4 | Cyber Security (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-field-tested) Hidden $28.32 56.63 coins $11.01 22.01 coins 0.39x 2026-11-11 02:28 UTC [M4A4 | Cyber Security (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-field-tested) Hidden $28.32 56.63 coins $11.01 22.01 coins 0.39x 2026-11-11 02:28 UTC [M4A4 | Cyber Security (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-field-tested) Hidden $28.32 56.63 coins $11.01 22.01 coins 0.39x 2026-11-11 02:28 UTC [M4A4 | Cyber Security (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-field-tested) Hidden $28.32 56.63 coins $11.01 22.01 coins 0.39x 2026-11-11 02:27 UTC [M4A4 | Cyber Security (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-field-tested) Hidden $28.32 56.63 coins $11.01 22.01 coins 0.39x 2026-11-11 02:27 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $28.32 | 89.99% | 14 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed extraordinary 0.1% Covert 0.0% covert 2.1% legendary 0.0% high 0.0% other 0.0% classified 97.7% best hit $1,113 (39.30x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt