--- title: "Siege case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Siege ($124.92) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 6 items with odds, observed 81.70% over 114 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/siege rendered: 2026-11-11T23:19Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Siege](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/siege) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Siege A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/siege?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/siege?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/siege) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/siege?window=all) Price · $124.92 · 250 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $112.42 from 6 items Observed RTP, 30d · 81.70% · 114 openings, odds method Variance · 5.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 25 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 95.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 8 openings · below min 7 days · 92 openings · below min 30 days · 114 openings · below min since tracking started · 114 openings · below min -0.5% 99.8% 200.0% **Small sample.** 114 openings and 4.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/siege?window=24h) | 8 | 42.97% ±156.5 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/siege?window=7d) | 92 | 84.82% ±46.2 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/siege) | 114 | 81.70% ±41.5 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/siege?window=all) | 114 | 81.70% ±41.5 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 114 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $1,824 3,649 coins | 16.2% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Foundation (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-foundation-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $1,784 3,567 coins | 15.9% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.88× | | [Souvenir AWP \| Desert Hydra (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $1,266 2,533 coins | 11.3% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.88× | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Overprint (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-overprint-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $759 1,518 coins | 6.8% | 3 | 1.1 | 2.63× | | [★ Talon Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $510 1,020 coins | 4.5% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.88× | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-dragon-king-factory-new) | 95.0% | $53.67 107 coins | 45.4% | 108 | 108.3 | 1.00× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 20:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Specialist Gloves | Foundation (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-foundation-factory-new) Hidden $125 250 coins $1,784 3,567 coins 14.28x 2026-11-06 14:32 UTC [Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-field-tested) Hidden $125 250 coins $1,266 2,533 coins 10.14x 2026-11-06 14:31 UTC [★ Hand Wraps | Overprint (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-overprint-factory-new) Hidden $125 250 coins $759 1,518 coins 6.08x 2026-11-10 00:27 UTC [★ Hand Wraps | Overprint (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-overprint-factory-new) Hidden $125 250 coins $759 1,518 coins 6.08x 2026-11-06 14:32 UTC [★ Hand Wraps | Overprint (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-overprint-factory-new) Hidden $125 250 coins $759 1,518 coins 6.08x 2026-11-03 11:59 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $125 250 coins $510 1,020 coins 4.08x 2026-11-06 14:32 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=siege) [StatTrak™ M4A4 | 龍王 (Dragon King) (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-dragon-king-factory-new) Hidden $125 250 coins $53.67 107 coins 0.43x 2026-11-11 11:46 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A4 | 龍王 (Dragon King) (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-dragon-king-factory-new) Hidden $125 250 coins $53.67 107 coins 0.43x 2026-11-11 11:46 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A4 | 龍王 (Dragon King) (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-dragon-king-factory-new) Hidden $125 250 coins $53.67 107 coins 0.43x 2026-11-11 11:46 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A4 | 龍王 (Dragon King) (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-dragon-king-factory-new) Hidden $125 250 coins $53.67 107 coins 0.43x 2026-11-11 11:46 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A4 | 龍王 (Dragon King) (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-dragon-king-factory-new) Hidden $125 250 coins $53.67 107 coins 0.43x 2026-11-11 11:46 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A4 | 龍王 (Dragon King) (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-dragon-king-factory-new) Hidden $125 250 coins $53.67 107 coins 0.43x 2026-11-11 11:46 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A4 | 龍王 (Dragon King) (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-dragon-king-factory-new) Hidden $125 250 coins $53.67 107 coins 0.43x 2026-11-11 11:46 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A4 | 龍王 (Dragon King) (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-dragon-king-factory-new) [Vinnie2524](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Vinnie2524) $125 250 coins $53.67 107 coins 0.43x 2026-11-11 11:46 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A4 | 龍王 (Dragon King) (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-dragon-king-factory-new) Hidden $125 250 coins $53.67 107 coins 0.43x 2026-11-10 16:22 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A4 | 龍王 (Dragon King) (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-dragon-king-factory-new) Hidden $125 250 coins $53.67 107 coins 0.43x 2026-11-10 16:22 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $125 | 90.00% | 6 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 2.0% extraordinary 1.0% legendary 1.0% epic 1.0% Classified 95.0% best hit $1,784 (14.28x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt