---
title: "Sigma Drop case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Sigma Drop ($13.56) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 13 items with odds, observed 85.02% over 2,501 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/sigma-drop
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:30Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Sigma Drop](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/sigma-drop)

# [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Sigma Drop

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/sigma-drop?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/sigma-drop?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/sigma-drop) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/sigma-drop?window=all)

Price · $13.56 · 27.11 coins

Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $12.20 from 13 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 85.02% · 2,501 openings, odds method

Variance · 15.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 39 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 102.68% ±50.44 238 openings

7 days · 81.29% ±17.12 2,065 openings

30 days · 85.02% ±15.56 2,501 openings

since tracking started · 85.02% ±15.56 2,501 openings

51.5% 102.8% 154.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/sigma-drop?window=24h) | 238 | 102.68% ±50.4 | +0.5σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/sigma-drop?window=7d) | 2,065 | 81.29% ±17.1 | −1.0σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/sigma-drop) | 2,501 | 85.02% ±15.6 | −0.6σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/sigma-drop?window=all) | 2,501 | 85.02% ±15.6 | −0.6σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,501 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,197 2,393 coins | 1.0% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · gold · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 3,333 | $1,044 2,089 coins | 2.6% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Overprint (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-overprint-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $759 1,518 coins | 6.2% | 3 | 2.5 | 1.20× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 250 | $506 1,012 coins | 16.6% | 10 | 10.0 | 1.00× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Field Agent (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-field-agent-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $176 352 coins | 28.8% | 44 | 50.0 | 0.88× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Boreal Forest (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-boreal-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $116 232 coins | 19.0% | 43 | 50.0 | 0.86× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $52.31 105 coins | 10.7% | 62 | 62.5 | 0.99× |
| [Charm \| Semi-Precious charm · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-semi-precious) | 1 in 33 | $20.86 41.72 coins | 5.1% | 67 | 75.0 | 0.89× |
| [USP-S \| Para Green (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-para-green-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $12.06 24.12 coins | 3.0% | 74 | 75.0 | 0.99× |
| [MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-abyssal-apparition-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $5.37 10.74 coins | 1.3% | 83 | 75.0 | 1.11× |
| [Galil AR \| Eco (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-eco-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $2.75 5.49 coins | 0.7% | 78 | 75.0 | 1.04× |
| [P90 \| Module (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-module-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $1.65 3.3 coins | 0.4% | 71 | 75.0 | 0.95× |
| [P250 \| Nevermore (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nevermore-factory-new) | 78.0% | $0.71 1.43 coins | 4.6% | 1,965 | 1949.8 | 1.01× |

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · gold · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $13.56 27.11 coins $1,044 2,089 coins 77.06x 2026-11-04 21:44 UTC

[★ Hand Wraps | Overprint (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-overprint-factory-new) Hidden $13.56 27.11 coins $759 1,518 coins 56.00x 2026-11-10 00:02 UTC

[★ Hand Wraps | Overprint (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-overprint-factory-new) Hidden $13.56 27.11 coins $759 1,518 coins 56.00x 2026-11-06 18:59 UTC

[★ Hand Wraps | Overprint (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-overprint-factory-new) Hidden $13.56 27.11 coins $759 1,518 coins 56.00x 2026-11-04 22:08 UTC

[★ Shadow Daggers | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $13.56 27.11 coins $506 1,012 coins 37.31x 2026-11-11 01:00 UTC

[★ Shadow Daggers | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $13.56 27.11 coins $506 1,012 coins 37.31x 2026-11-10 18:10 UTC

[★ Shadow Daggers | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $13.56 27.11 coins $506 1,012 coins 37.31x 2026-11-05 23:55 UTC

[★ Shadow Daggers | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $13.56 27.11 coins $506 1,012 coins 37.31x 2026-11-05 23:28 UTC

[★ Shadow Daggers | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $13.56 27.11 coins $506 1,012 coins 37.31x 2026-11-04 21:58 UTC

[★ Shadow Daggers | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $13.56 27.11 coins $506 1,012 coins 37.31x 2026-11-04 21:46 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=sigma-drop)

[MP7 | Abyssal Apparition (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-abyssal-apparition-factory-new) Hidden $13.56 27.11 coins $5.37 10.74 coins 0.40x 2026-11-11 12:54 UTC

[P250 | Nevermore (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nevermore-factory-new) Hidden $13.56 27.11 coins $0.71 1.43 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 12:54 UTC

[P250 | Nevermore (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nevermore-factory-new) Hidden $13.56 27.11 coins $0.71 1.43 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 12:54 UTC

[P250 | Nevermore (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nevermore-factory-new) Hidden $13.56 27.11 coins $0.71 1.43 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 12:54 UTC

[P250 | Nevermore (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nevermore-factory-new) Hidden $13.56 27.11 coins $0.71 1.43 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 12:54 UTC

[P250 | Nevermore (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nevermore-factory-new) [fortune](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/fortune) $13.56 27.11 coins $0.71 1.43 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 12:54 UTC

[P250 | Nevermore (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nevermore-factory-new) Hidden $13.56 27.11 coins $0.71 1.43 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 12:54 UTC

[★ Falchion Knife | Boreal Forest (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-boreal-forest-factory-new) Hidden $13.56 27.11 coins $116 232 coins 8.56x 2026-11-11 12:54 UTC

[P90 | Module (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-module-minimal-wear) Hidden $13.56 27.11 coins $1.65 3.3 coins 0.12x 2026-11-11 12:54 UTC

[P250 | Nevermore (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nevermore-factory-new) Hidden $13.56 27.11 coins $0.71 1.43 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 12:54 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $13.56 | 89.99% | 13 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 2.9% gold 0.0% legendary 0.1% extraordinary 2.0% covert knife 2.0% rare 3.0% industrial 3.0% Legendary 3.0% classified 3.0% mil spec 3.0% restricted 78.0% best hit $1,044 (77.06x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt