---
title: "Sister case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Sister ($18.18) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 16 items with odds, observed 79.73% over 2,961 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/sister
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:30Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Sister](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/sister)

# [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Sister

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/sister?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/sister?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/sister) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/sister?window=all)

Price · $18.18 · 36.35 coins

Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $16.36 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 79.73% · 2,961 openings, odds method

Variance · 87.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 24 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 86.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 110.54% ±112.78 263 openings

7 days · 81.34% ±36.50 2,511 openings

30 days · 79.73% ±33.61 2,961 openings

since tracking started · 79.73% ±33.61 2,961 openings

-0.5% 111.8% 224.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/sister?window=24h) | 263 | 110.54% ±112.8 | +0.4σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/sister?window=7d) | 2,511 | 81.34% ±36.5 | −0.5σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/sister) | 2,961 | 79.73% ±33.6 | −0.6σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/sister?window=all) | 2,961 | 79.73% ±33.6 | −0.6σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,961 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 10,000 | $12.1K 24,151 coins | 7.4% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-skeleton-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $7,444 14,887 coins | 4.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [Sticker \| LGB eSports (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lgb-esports-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 10,000 | $6,328 12,655 coins | 3.9% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [Souvenir M4A1-S \| Imminent Danger (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-imminent-danger-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $3,722 7,444 coins | 2.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $2,171 4,342 coins | 1.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,197 2,393 coins | 3.7% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.68× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,065 2,130 coins | 3.3% | 4 | 1.5 | 2.70× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $657 1,315 coins | 2.0% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.68× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Containment Breach (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-containment-breach-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $639 1,278 coins | 2.0% | 3 | 1.5 | 2.03× |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Night Stripe (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-night-stripe-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $201 401 coins | 12.3% | 23 | 29.6 | 0.78× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-black-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $149 298 coins | 27.4% | 104 | 88.8 | 1.17× |
| [Souvenir M4A1-S \| Nitro (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-nitro-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $75.07 150 coins | 13.8% | 97 | 88.8 | 1.09× |
| [M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $50.58 101 coins | 9.3% | 84 | 88.8 | 0.95× |
| [Charm \| Lil' Crass charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-crass) | 1 in 33 | $31.00 62 coins | 5.7% | 77 | 88.8 | 0.87× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Urban DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-urban-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 57 | $12.54 25.08 coins | 1.3% | 66 | 51.8 | 1.27× |
| [P2000 \| Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) | 85.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 2,501 | 2516.8 | 0.99× |

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $18.18 36.35 coins $1,197 2,393 coins 65.84x 2026-11-07 23:23 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-field-tested) Hidden $18.18 36.35 coins $1,065 2,130 coins 58.59x 2026-11-10 18:50 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-field-tested) Hidden $18.18 36.35 coins $1,065 2,130 coins 58.59x 2026-11-10 18:45 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-field-tested) Hidden $18.18 36.35 coins $1,065 2,130 coins 58.59x 2026-11-07 10:38 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-field-tested) Hidden $18.18 36.35 coins $1,065 2,130 coins 58.59x 2026-11-06 17:36 UTC

[StatTrak™ AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) Hidden $18.18 36.35 coins $657 1,315 coins 36.17x 2026-11-04 17:19 UTC

[StatTrak™ AWP | Containment Breach (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-containment-breach-factory-new) Hidden $18.18 36.35 coins $639 1,278 coins 35.15x 2026-11-10 18:23 UTC

[StatTrak™ AWP | Containment Breach (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-containment-breach-factory-new) Hidden $18.18 36.35 coins $639 1,278 coins 35.15x 2026-11-06 20:21 UTC

[StatTrak™ AWP | Containment Breach (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-containment-breach-factory-new) Hidden $18.18 36.35 coins $639 1,278 coins 35.15x 2026-11-04 07:12 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=sister)

[Desert Eagle | Urban DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-urban-ddpat-factory-new) Hidden $18.18 36.35 coins $12.54 25.08 coins 0.69x 2026-11-11 11:05 UTC

[P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $18.18 36.35 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:05 UTC

[P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) [Moon1025](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Moon1025) $18.18 36.35 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:05 UTC

[Charm | Lil' Crass charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-crass) Hidden $18.18 36.35 coins $31.00 62 coins 1.71x 2026-11-10 21:52 UTC

[P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) [Moon1025](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Moon1025) $18.18 36.35 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 21:52 UTC

[P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $18.18 36.35 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 21:40 UTC

[M4A1-S | Mecha Industries (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-factory-new) [Moon1025](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Moon1025) $18.18 36.35 coins $50.58 101 coins 2.78x 2026-11-10 21:40 UTC

[P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $18.18 36.35 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 21:24 UTC

[P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $18.18 36.35 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 21:24 UTC

[P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $18.18 36.35 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 21:24 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $18.18 | 89.99% | 16 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 3.2% remarkable 0.0% covert knife 1.0% sunny 3.0% restricted 3.0% uncommon 3.0% industrial 1.8% #4b69ff 85.0% best hit $1,197 (65.84x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt