--- title: "Skeleton Knife case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Skeleton Knife ($5.30) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.93% from 8 items with odds, observed 76.63% over 4,974 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/skeleton-knife rendered: 2026-11-11T13:30Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Skeleton Knife](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/skeleton-knife) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Skeleton Knife A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/skeleton-knife?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/skeleton-knife?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/skeleton-knife) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/skeleton-knife?window=all) Price · $5.30 · 10.59 coins Advertised RTP · 89.93% · EV $4.76 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 76.63% · 4,974 openings, odds method Variance · 210.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 62 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 58.4% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 245 openings · below min 7 days · 74.04% ±48.74 3,399 openings 30 days · 76.63% ±40.29 4,974 openings since tracking started · 76.63% ±40.29 4,974 openings -0.5% 116.8% 234.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/skeleton-knife?window=24h) | 245 | 52.02% ±181.5 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/skeleton-knife?window=7d) | 3,399 | 74.04% ±48.7 | −0.6σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/skeleton-knife) | 4,974 | 76.63% ±40.3 | −0.6σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/skeleton-knife?window=all) | 4,974 | 76.63% ±40.3 | −0.6σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,038 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-skeleton-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $7,444 14,887 coins | 15.6% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $503 1,007 coins | 10.6% | 4 | 5.0 | 0.79× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $129 258 coins | 13.5% | 27 | 25.2 | 1.07× | | [Souvenir Nova \| Candy Apple (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-nova-candy-apple-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $51.43 103 coins | 10.8% | 59 | 50.4 | 1.17× | | [P90 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-asiimov-field-tested) | 40.0% | $5.51 11.01 coins | 46.2% | 2,015 | 2015.2 | 1.00× | | [UMP-45 \| Full Stop (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-full-stop-field-tested) | 20.0% | $0.50 1 coins | 2.1% | 983 | 1007.6 | 0.98× | | [Sawed-Off \| Limelight (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-limelight-field-tested) | 20.0% | $0.25 0.5 coins | 1.1% | 1,000 | 1007.6 | 0.99× | | [MP5-SD \| Liquidation (Field-Tested) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-liquidation-field-tested) | 18.4% | $0.02 0.04 coins | 0.1% | 950 | 926.5 | 1.03× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Ursus Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $5.30 10.59 coins $503 1,007 coins 95.06x 2026-11-09 12:37 UTC [★ Ursus Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $5.30 10.59 coins $503 1,007 coins 95.06x 2026-11-06 08:03 UTC [★ Ursus Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $5.30 10.59 coins $503 1,007 coins 95.06x 2026-11-03 05:34 UTC [★ Ursus Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $5.30 10.59 coins $503 1,007 coins 95.06x 2026-11-03 05:17 UTC [★ Ursus Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $5.30 10.59 coins $503 1,007 coins 95.06x 2026-11-03 00:13 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=skeleton-knife) [MP5-SD | Liquidation (Field-Tested) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-liquidation-field-tested) Hidden $5.30 10.59 coins $0.02 0.04 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC [UMP-45 | Full Stop (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-full-stop-field-tested) Hidden $5.30 10.59 coins $0.50 1 coins 0.09x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC [P90 | Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-asiimov-field-tested) Hidden $5.30 10.59 coins $5.51 11.01 coins 1.04x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC [UMP-45 | Full Stop (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-full-stop-field-tested) Hidden $5.30 10.59 coins $0.50 1 coins 0.09x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC [UMP-45 | Full Stop (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-full-stop-field-tested) Hidden $5.30 10.59 coins $0.50 1 coins 0.09x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC [P90 | Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-asiimov-field-tested) Hidden $5.30 10.59 coins $5.51 11.01 coins 1.04x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC [Sawed-Off | Limelight (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-limelight-field-tested) Hidden $5.30 10.59 coins $0.25 0.5 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC [UMP-45 | Full Stop (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-full-stop-field-tested) [BG2x](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/BG2x) $5.30 10.59 coins $0.50 1 coins 0.09x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC [P90 | Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-asiimov-field-tested) Hidden $5.30 10.59 coins $5.51 11.01 coins 1.04x 2026-11-11 13:18 UTC [Sawed-Off | Limelight (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-limelight-field-tested) Hidden $5.30 10.59 coins $0.25 0.5 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 13:18 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $5.30 | 89.93% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed 1 18.4% covert 40.5% rare 0.1% other 1.0% blue 20.0% restricted 20.0% best hit $503 (95.06x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.93 on average: an expected loss of $10.07 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt