---
title: "Skeleton case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Skeleton ($3.89) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 13 items with odds, observed 86.62% over 1,345 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/skeleton
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:08Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Skeleton](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/skeleton)

# [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Skeleton

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/skeleton?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/skeleton?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/skeleton) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/skeleton?window=all)

Price · $3.89 · 7.77 coins

Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $3.50 from 13 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 86.62% · 1,345 openings, odds method

Variance · 9.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 20 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 87.9% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 70.85% ±27.82 476 openings

7 days · 88.02% ±18.11 1,123 openings

30 days · 86.62% ±16.55 1,345 openings

since tracking started · 86.62% ±16.55 1,345 openings

42.5% 74.8% 107.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/skeleton?window=24h) | 476 | 70.85% ±27.8 | −1.3σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/skeleton?window=7d) | 1,123 | 88.02% ±18.1 | −0.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/skeleton) | 1,345 | 86.62% ±16.5 | −0.4σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/skeleton?window=all) | 1,345 | 86.62% ±16.5 | −0.4σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,345 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Urban Masked (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-urban-masked-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $252 503 coins | 7.2% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.74× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $100 201 coins | 14.3% | 7 | 6.7 | 1.04× |
| [M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $50.58 101 coins | 14.5% | 13 | 13.5 | 0.97× |
| [P2000 \| Silver (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-silver-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $25.74 51.47 coins | 11.0% | 15 | 20.2 | 0.74× |
| [Tec-9 \| Hades (Factory New) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-hades-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $12.80 25.6 coins | 7.3% | 36 | 26.9 | 1.34× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Victoria (Factory New) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-victoria-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $7.60 15.19 coins | 6.5% | 33 | 40.4 | 0.82× |
| [Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wasteland-rebel-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $4.00 8 coins | 4.6% | 51 | 53.8 | 0.95× |
| [FAMAS \| Night Borre (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-night-borre-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $3.03 6.06 coins | 4.3% | 73 | 67.3 | 1.09× |
| [MAG-7 \| Firestarter (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-firestarter-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $2.63 5.26 coins | 4.5% | 75 | 80.7 | 0.93× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Silver (Factory New) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-silver-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $2.07 4.14 coins | 4.7% | 109 | 107.6 | 1.01× |
| [FAMAS \| Contrast Spray (Field-Tested) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-contrast-spray-field-tested) | 20.0% | $1.52 3.03 coins | 8.7% | 244 | 269.0 | 0.91× |
| [AUG \| Arctic Wolf (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-arctic-wolf-field-tested) | 24.0% | $1.27 2.53 coins | 8.7% | 332 | 322.8 | 1.03× |
| [MP9 \| Dart (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-dart-factory-new) | 24.9% | $0.51 1.01 coins | 3.6% | 356 | 334.9 | 1.06× |

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Stiletto Knife | Urban Masked (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-urban-masked-factory-new) Hidden $3.89 7.77 coins $252 503 coins 64.76x 2026-11-06 23:23 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=skeleton)

[FAMAS | Contrast Spray (Field-Tested) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-contrast-spray-field-tested) Hidden $3.89 7.77 coins $1.52 3.03 coins 0.39x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC

[MP9 | Dart (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-dart-factory-new) Hidden $3.89 7.77 coins $0.51 1.01 coins 0.13x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC

[FAMAS | Contrast Spray (Field-Tested) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-contrast-spray-field-tested) Hidden $3.89 7.77 coins $1.52 3.03 coins 0.39x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC

[MP9 | Dart (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-dart-factory-new) Hidden $3.89 7.77 coins $0.51 1.01 coins 0.13x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC

[FAMAS | Contrast Spray (Field-Tested) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-contrast-spray-field-tested) Hidden $3.89 7.77 coins $1.52 3.03 coins 0.39x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC

[AUG | Arctic Wolf (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-arctic-wolf-field-tested) Hidden $3.89 7.77 coins $1.27 2.53 coins 0.33x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC

[AUG | Arctic Wolf (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-arctic-wolf-field-tested) Hidden $3.89 7.77 coins $1.27 2.53 coins 0.33x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC

[FAMAS | Contrast Spray (Field-Tested) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-contrast-spray-field-tested) [BG2x](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/BG2x) $3.89 7.77 coins $1.52 3.03 coins 0.39x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC

[MAG-7 | Firestarter (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-firestarter-factory-new) Hidden $3.89 7.77 coins $2.63 5.26 coins 0.68x 2026-11-11 13:05 UTC

[MP9 | Dart (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-dart-factory-new) Hidden $3.89 7.77 coins $0.51 1.01 coins 0.13x 2026-11-11 13:05 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $3.89 | 89.99% | 13 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 5.6% mil spec 26.4% Industrial Grade 2.0% #eb4b4b 3.0% Consumer Grade 5.0% Mil Spec Grade 6.0% light blue 8.0% #777777 20.0% restricted 24.0% best hit $252 (64.76x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt