--- title: "Skull case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Skull ($102.47) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 8 items with odds, observed 47.22% over 24 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/skull rendered: 2026-11-11T15:13Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Skull](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/skull) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Skull A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/skull?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/skull?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/skull) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/skull?window=all) Price · $102.47 · 205 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $92.22 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 47.22% · 24 openings, odds method Variance · 4.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 11.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 77.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 16 openings · below min 30 days · 24 openings · below min since tracking started · 24 openings · below min -0.5% 65.3% 131.0% **Small sample.** 24 openings and 2.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/skull?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/skull?window=7d) | 16 | 23.89% ±101.6 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/skull) | 24 | 47.22% ±82.9 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/skull?window=all) | 24 | 47.22% ±82.9 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 24 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-skeleton-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $1,252 2,504 coins | 27.2% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-skeleton-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $577 1,154 coins | 18.8% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Cobalt Skulls (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-cobalt-skulls-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $297 595 coins | 19.3% | 3 | 1.4 | 2.08× | | [★ Skeleton Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-stained-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $296 592 coins | 19.3% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× | | [Souvenir R8 Revolver \| Bone Mask (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-r8-revolver-bone-mask-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $167 335 coins | 10.9% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.69× | | [MP7 \| Skulls (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-skulls-minimal-wear) | 22.0% | $13.71 27.42 coins | 3.3% | 5 | 5.3 | 0.95× | | [Nova \| Rising Skull (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-rising-skull-minimal-wear) | 25.0% | $3.67 7.34 coins | 1.0% | 7 | 6.0 | 1.17× | | [R8 Revolver \| Skull Crusher (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-skull-crusher-field-tested) | 30.0% | $0.94 1.88 coins | 0.3% | 8 | 7.2 | 1.11× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=skull) [★ Hand Wraps | Cobalt Skulls (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-cobalt-skulls-field-tested) Hidden $102 205 coins $297 595 coins 2.90x 2026-11-10 15:13 UTC [R8 Revolver | Skull Crusher (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-skull-crusher-field-tested) Hidden $102 205 coins $0.94 1.88 coins 0.01x 2026-11-10 15:13 UTC [MP7 | Skulls (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-skulls-minimal-wear) Hidden $102 205 coins $13.71 27.42 coins 0.13x 2026-11-10 15:13 UTC [Nova | Rising Skull (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-rising-skull-minimal-wear) [crazies](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/crazies) $102 205 coins $3.67 7.34 coins 0.04x 2026-11-10 15:13 UTC [MP7 | Skulls (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-skulls-minimal-wear) Hidden $102 205 coins $13.71 27.42 coins 0.13x 2026-11-10 15:13 UTC [R8 Revolver | Skull Crusher (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-skull-crusher-field-tested) Hidden $102 205 coins $0.94 1.88 coins 0.01x 2026-11-10 15:13 UTC [Nova | Rising Skull (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-rising-skull-minimal-wear) Hidden $102 205 coins $3.67 7.34 coins 0.04x 2026-11-10 15:13 UTC [R8 Revolver | Skull Crusher (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-skull-crusher-field-tested) [crazies](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/crazies) $102 205 coins $0.94 1.88 coins 0.01x 2026-11-10 15:13 UTC [Nova | Rising Skull (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-rising-skull-minimal-wear) Hidden $102 205 coins $3.67 7.34 coins 0.04x 2026-11-07 21:17 UTC [MP7 | Skulls (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-skulls-minimal-wear) Hidden $102 205 coins $13.71 27.42 coins 0.13x 2026-11-07 21:17 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $102 | 90.00% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 2.0% #EB4B4B 3.0% extraordinary 6.0% gold 6.0% consumer 6.0% blue 22.0% restricted 25.0% classified 30.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt