--- title: "Sled case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Sled ($1.00) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.82% from 8 items with odds, observed 91.54% over 5,933 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/sled rendered: 2026-11-11T13:46Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Sled](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/sled) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Sled A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/sled?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/sled?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/sled) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/sled?window=all) Price · $1.00 · 2 coins Advertised RTP · 89.82% · EV $0.90 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 91.54% · 5,933 openings, odds method Variance · 26.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 100 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 95.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 97.09% ±38.47 695 openings 7 days · 89.82% ±14.87 4,655 openings 30 days · 91.54% ±13.17 5,933 openings since tracking started · 91.54% ±13.17 5,933 openings 58.0% 97.0% 136.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/sled?window=24h) | 695 | 97.09% ±38.5 | +0.4σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/sled?window=7d) | 4,655 | 89.82% ±14.9 | −0.0σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/sled) | 5,933 | 91.54% ±13.2 | +0.3σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/sled?window=all) | 5,933 | 91.54% ±13.2 | +0.3σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,933 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Souvenir Glock-18 \| Groundwater (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-groundwater-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $50.13 100 coins | 55.8% | 57 | 59.3 | 0.96× | | [UMP-45 \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $12.52 25.03 coins | 13.9% | 66 | 59.3 | 1.11× | | [Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-angry-mob-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $7.51 15.01 coins | 8.4% | 79 | 59.3 | 1.33× | | [G3SG1 \| Demeter (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-demeter-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $5.02 10.04 coins | 5.6% | 58 | 59.3 | 0.98× | | [MAC-10 \| Aloha (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-aloha-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $2.53 5.06 coins | 2.8% | 59 | 59.3 | 0.99× | | [Charm \| Lil' SAS charm · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-sas) | 1 in 100 | $0.50 1 coins | 0.6% | 53 | 59.3 | 0.89× | | [SSG 08 \| Blue Spruce (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blue-spruce-factory-new) | 93.0% | $0.13 0.25 coins | 12.9% | 5,502 | 5517.7 | 1.00× | | [FAMAS \| Meow 36 (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meow-36-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 59 | 59.3 | 0.99× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Souvenir Glock-18 | Groundwater (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-groundwater-factory-new) Hidden $1.00 2 coins $50.13 100 coins 50.13x 2026-11-11 07:07 UTC [Souvenir Glock-18 | Groundwater (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-groundwater-factory-new) [soolar](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/soolar) $1.00 2 coins $50.13 100 coins 50.13x 2026-11-11 02:45 UTC [Souvenir Glock-18 | Groundwater (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-groundwater-factory-new) Hidden $1.00 2 coins $50.13 100 coins 50.13x 2026-11-11 02:43 UTC [Souvenir Glock-18 | Groundwater (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-groundwater-factory-new) [SolidLynx6577](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/SolidLynx6577) $1.00 2 coins $50.13 100 coins 50.13x 2026-11-10 23:49 UTC [Souvenir Glock-18 | Groundwater (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-groundwater-factory-new) Hidden $1.00 2 coins $50.13 100 coins 50.13x 2026-11-10 23:18 UTC [Souvenir Glock-18 | Groundwater (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-groundwater-factory-new) Hidden $1.00 2 coins $50.13 100 coins 50.13x 2026-11-10 21:50 UTC [Souvenir Glock-18 | Groundwater (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-groundwater-factory-new) Hidden $1.00 2 coins $50.13 100 coins 50.13x 2026-11-10 21:48 UTC [Souvenir Glock-18 | Groundwater (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-groundwater-factory-new) Hidden $1.00 2 coins $50.13 100 coins 50.13x 2026-11-10 18:28 UTC [Souvenir Glock-18 | Groundwater (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-groundwater-factory-new) Hidden $1.00 2 coins $50.13 100 coins 50.13x 2026-11-10 07:45 UTC [Souvenir Glock-18 | Groundwater (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-groundwater-factory-new) Hidden $1.00 2 coins $50.13 100 coins 50.13x 2026-11-09 20:59 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=sled) [SSG 08 | Blue Spruce (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blue-spruce-factory-new) Hidden $1.00 2 coins $0.13 0.25 coins 0.13x 2026-11-11 10:29 UTC [SSG 08 | Blue Spruce (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blue-spruce-factory-new) Hidden $1.00 2 coins $0.13 0.25 coins 0.13x 2026-11-11 10:29 UTC [SSG 08 | Blue Spruce (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blue-spruce-factory-new) Hidden $1.00 2 coins $0.13 0.25 coins 0.13x 2026-11-11 10:29 UTC [SSG 08 | Blue Spruce (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blue-spruce-factory-new) [OttoW](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/OttoW) $1.00 2 coins $0.13 0.25 coins 0.13x 2026-11-11 10:29 UTC [SSG 08 | Blue Spruce (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blue-spruce-factory-new) Hidden $1.00 2 coins $0.13 0.25 coins 0.13x 2026-11-11 10:29 UTC [SSG 08 | Blue Spruce (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blue-spruce-factory-new) Hidden $1.00 2 coins $0.13 0.25 coins 0.13x 2026-11-11 10:29 UTC [SSG 08 | Blue Spruce (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blue-spruce-factory-new) Hidden $1.00 2 coins $0.13 0.25 coins 0.13x 2026-11-11 10:29 UTC [SSG 08 | Blue Spruce (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blue-spruce-factory-new) [OttoW](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/OttoW) $1.00 2 coins $0.13 0.25 coins 0.13x 2026-11-11 10:29 UTC [SSG 08 | Blue Spruce (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blue-spruce-factory-new) Hidden $1.00 2 coins $0.13 0.25 coins 0.13x 2026-11-11 10:29 UTC [SSG 08 | Blue Spruce (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blue-spruce-factory-new) Hidden $1.00 2 coins $0.13 0.25 coins 0.13x 2026-11-11 10:29 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $1.00 | 89.82% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Industrial Grade 1.0% mil spec 3.0% covert 1.0% #4b69ff 2.0% consumer 93.0% best hit $50.13 (50.13x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.82 on average: an expected loss of $10.18 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt