---
title: "Smackdown case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Smackdown ($177.99) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 16 items with odds. Independent and free, no sign-up."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/smackdown
rendered: 2026-11-11T23:56Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Smackdown](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/smackdown)

# [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Smackdown

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/smackdown?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/smackdown?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/smackdown) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/smackdown?window=all)

Price · $177.99 · 356 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $160.19 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings

Variance · 3.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 11 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 75.9% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

**No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/smackdown?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/smackdown?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/smackdown) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/smackdown?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 100,000 | $10.6K 21,246 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 1,000 | $3,187 6,373 coins | 2.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Cobalt Skulls (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-cobalt-skulls-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $1,788 3,576 coins | 5.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) StatTrak · knife · Covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 100 | $1,524 3,048 coins | 9.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Smoke Out (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-smoke-out-factory-new) | 1 in 80 | $1,125 2,251 coins | 8.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Souvenir M4A1-S \| Knight (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-knight-minimal-wear) | 1 in 80 | $1,089 2,177 coins | 8.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 80 | $1,035 2,071 coins | 8.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 80 | $944 1,888 coins | 7.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Night Stripe (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-night-stripe-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $605 1,211 coins | 9.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 40 | $542 1,085 coins | 8.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 40 | $531 1,062 coins | 8.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Souvenir Dual Berettas \| Cobalt Quartz (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-dual-berettas-cobalt-quartz-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $293 587 coins | 9.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Negev \| Anodized Navy (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-anodized-navy-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $253 506 coins | 7.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Undertow (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-undertow-factory-new) | 15.0% | $38.75 77.49 coins | 3.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-factory-new) | 15.0% | $26.67 53.34 coins | 2.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAG-7 \| Hard Water (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-hard-water-factory-new) | 45.9% | $2.61 5.22 coins | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 20:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=smackdown)

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days

No history yet

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $178 | 90.00% | 16 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 6.4% legendary 0.5% Covert 3.5% extraordinary 1.3% Classified 1.3% #EB4B4B 1.3% restricted 5.0% #4b69ff 5.0% classified 30.0% mil spec 45.9%

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt