--- title: "Small Pipe case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Small Pipe ($1.02) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.82% from 14 items with odds, observed 85.85% over 1,339 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/small-pipe rendered: 2026-11-11T13:36Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Small Pipe](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/small-pipe) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Small Pipe A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/small-pipe?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/small-pipe?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/small-pipe) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/small-pipe?window=all) Price · $1.02 · 2.04 coins Advertised RTP · 89.82% · EV $0.92 from 14 items Observed RTP, 30d · 85.85% · 1,339 openings, odds method Variance · 3.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 17 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 86.2% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 66 openings · below min 7 days · 85.66% ±11.37 1,111 openings 30 days · 85.85% ±10.35 1,339 openings since tracking started · 85.85% ±10.35 1,339 openings 73.5% 124.8% 176.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/small-pipe?window=24h) | 66 | 128.88% ±46.6 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/small-pipe?window=7d) | 1,111 | 85.66% ±11.4 | −0.7σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/small-pipe) | 1,339 | 85.85% ±10.4 | −0.8σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/small-pipe?window=all) | 1,339 | 85.85% ±10.4 | −0.8σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,339 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [MAG-7 \| Silver (Factory New) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-silver-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $11.21 22.41 coins | 3.1% | 2 | 3.3 | 0.60× | | [AK-47 \| Head Shot (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-head-shot-field-tested) | 1 in 286 | $10.56 21.12 coins | 4.0% | 2 | 4.7 | 0.43× | | [Nova \| Green Apple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-green-apple-factory-new) | 1 in 222 | $10.01 20.02 coins | 4.9% | 7 | 6.0 | 1.16× | | [SG 553 \| Desert Blossom (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-desert-blossom-factory-new) | 1 in 182 | $9.77 19.54 coins | 5.9% | 9 | 7.4 | 1.22× | | [AWP \| Corticera (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-corticera-minimal-wear) | 1 in 154 | $9.67 19.33 coins | 6.9% | 12 | 8.7 | 1.38× | | [Tec-9 \| Blast From the Past (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-blast-from-the-past-field-tested) | 1 in 133 | $7.88 15.75 coins | 6.4% | 10 | 10.0 | 1.00× | | [Dual Berettas \| Hemoglobin (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hemoglobin-factory-new) | 1 in 118 | $6.75 13.49 coins | 6.3% | 12 | 11.4 | 1.05× | | [MAG-7 \| Hazard (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-hazard-field-tested) | 1 in 105 | $6.58 13.16 coins | 6.8% | 6 | 12.7 | 0.47× | | [MP9 \| Setting Sun (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-setting-sun-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $6.03 12.05 coins | 6.6% | 7 | 13.4 | 0.52× | | [R8 Revolver \| Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $5.47 10.93 coins | 6.0% | 17 | 13.4 | 1.27× | | [Negev \| CaliCamo (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-calicamo-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $5.17 10.33 coins | 5.6% | 13 | 13.4 | 0.97× | | [MAC-10 \| Aloha (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-aloha-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $2.53 5.06 coins | 5.5% | 21 | 26.8 | 0.78× | | [MAC-10 \| Pipe Down (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-pipe-down-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $1.09 2.18 coins | 4.8% | 58 | 53.6 | 1.08× | | [MAC-10 \| Pipe Down (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-pipe-down-field-tested) | 86.2% | $0.29 0.58 coins | 27.3% | 1,163 | 1154.2 | 1.01× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=small-pipe) [MAC-10 | Pipe Down (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-pipe-down-field-tested) [pep](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/pep) $1.02 2.04 coins $0.29 0.58 coins 0.28x 2026-11-11 13:27 UTC [MAC-10 | Pipe Down (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-pipe-down-field-tested) Hidden $1.02 2.04 coins $0.29 0.58 coins 0.28x 2026-11-11 13:27 UTC [MAC-10 | Pipe Down (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-pipe-down-field-tested) Hidden $1.02 2.04 coins $0.29 0.58 coins 0.28x 2026-11-11 13:27 UTC [MAC-10 | Pipe Down (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-pipe-down-field-tested) Hidden $1.02 2.04 coins $0.29 0.58 coins 0.28x 2026-11-11 13:27 UTC [AWP | Corticera (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-corticera-minimal-wear) Hidden $1.02 2.04 coins $9.67 19.33 coins 9.48x 2026-11-11 13:27 UTC [MAC-10 | Pipe Down (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-pipe-down-field-tested) Hidden $1.02 2.04 coins $0.29 0.58 coins 0.28x 2026-11-11 13:27 UTC [MAC-10 | Pipe Down (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-pipe-down-field-tested) Hidden $1.02 2.04 coins $0.29 0.58 coins 0.28x 2026-11-11 13:27 UTC [Dual Berettas | Hemoglobin (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hemoglobin-factory-new) Hidden $1.02 2.04 coins $6.75 13.49 coins 6.61x 2026-11-11 13:27 UTC [MAC-10 | Pipe Down (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-pipe-down-field-tested) Hidden $1.02 2.04 coins $0.29 0.58 coins 0.28x 2026-11-10 23:00 UTC [MAC-10 | Pipe Down (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-pipe-down-field-tested) Hidden $1.02 2.04 coins $0.29 0.58 coins 0.28x 2026-11-10 23:00 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $1.02 | 89.82% | 14 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed #87c7ff 0.3% Ancient 0.4% industrial 1.4% #4b69ff 1.3% classified 0.7% restricted 91.0% mil spec 4.0% covert 1.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.82 on average: an expected loss of $10.18 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt