---
title: "Small Present case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Small Present ($0.37) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.28% from 16 items with odds, observed 123.32% over 13.6K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/small-present
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:28Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Small Present](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/small-present)

# [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Small Present

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/small-present?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/small-present?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/small-present) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/small-present?window=all)

Price · $0.37 · 0.73 coins

Advertised RTP · 89.28% · EV $0.33 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 123.32% · 13.6K openings, odds method

Variance · 139.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 81 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 87.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 126.36% ±54.41 1,807 openings

7 days · 128.29% ±20.80 12.4K openings

30 days · 123.32% ±19.81 13.6K openings

since tracking started · 123.32% ±19.81 13.6K openings

71.5% 126.5% 181.5%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 89.28% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (103.52% – 143.13%, 13,635 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/small-present?window=24h) | 1,807 | 126.36% ±54.4 | +1.3σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/small-present?window=7d) | 12.4K | 128.29% ±20.8 | +3.7σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/small-present) | 13.6K | 123.32% ±19.8 | +3.4σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/small-present?window=all) | 13.6K | 123.32% ±19.8 | +3.4σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 13.6K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Charm \| Diner Dog charm · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-diner-dog) | 1 in 10,000 | $270 540 coins | 8.3% | 2 | 1.4 | 1.47× |
| [Souvenir MAG-7 \| Bulldozer (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mag-7-bulldozer-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $251 501 coins | 7.7% | 4 | 1.4 | 2.93× |
| [Charm \| POP Art charm · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-pop-art) | 1 in 5,000 | $125 250 coins | 7.7% | 7 | 2.7 | 2.57× |
| [M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $50.58 101 coins | 7.8% | 12 | 6.8 | 1.76× |
| [M249 \| Shipping Forecast (Factory New) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-shipping-forecast-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $12.53 25.05 coins | 3.8% | 9 | 13.6 | 0.66× |
| [M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-battlestar-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $7.55 15.09 coins | 5.8% | 34 | 34.1 | 1.00× |
| [SG 553 \| Wave Spray (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-wave-spray-field-tested) | 1 in 333 | $5.51 11.01 coins | 5.1% | 50 | 40.9 | 1.22× |
| [P2000 \| Coach Class (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-coach-class-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $5.03 10.05 coins | 7.7% | 76 | 68.2 | 1.11× |
| [UMP-45 \| Metal Flowers (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-metal-flowers-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $2.54 5.08 coins | 7.8% | 149 | 136.4 | 1.09× |
| [P90 \| Verdant Growth (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-verdant-growth-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $1.52 3.04 coins | 9.3% | 285 | 272.8 | 1.04× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Apocalypto (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-apocalypto-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $1.01 2.02 coins | 9.3% | 411 | 409.2 | 1.00× |
| [Charm \| Lil' SAS charm · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-sas) | 1 in 20 | $0.50 1 coins | 7.7% | 658 | 682.0 | 0.96× |
| [Tec-9 \| Ice Cap (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-ice-cap-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $0.34 0.69 coins | 5.3% | 659 | 682.0 | 0.97× |
| [Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-moonrise-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $0.22 0.44 coins | 3.4% | 680 | 682.0 | 1.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Oxide Blaze (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-oxide-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $0.15 0.3 coins | 2.3% | 697 | 682.0 | 1.02× |
| [P250 \| Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) | 72.8% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 1.1% | 9,906 | 9923.7 | 1.00× |

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[Charm | Diner Dog charm · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-diner-dog) [Maserati](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Maserati) $0.36 0.73 coins $270 540 coins 739.7x 2026-11-08 12:53 UTC

[Charm | Diner Dog charm · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-diner-dog) Hidden $0.36 0.73 coins $270 540 coins 739.7x 2026-11-05 19:30 UTC

[Souvenir MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mag-7-bulldozer-factory-new) Hidden $0.36 0.73 coins $251 501 coins 686.7x 2026-11-05 19:29 UTC

[Souvenir MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mag-7-bulldozer-factory-new) Hidden $0.36 0.73 coins $251 501 coins 686.7x 2026-11-05 19:28 UTC

[Souvenir MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mag-7-bulldozer-factory-new) Hidden $0.36 0.73 coins $251 501 coins 686.7x 2026-11-05 19:26 UTC

[Souvenir MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mag-7-bulldozer-factory-new) Hidden $0.36 0.73 coins $251 501 coins 686.7x 2026-11-05 19:25 UTC

[Charm | POP Art charm · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-pop-art) Hidden $0.36 0.73 coins $125 250 coins 342.5x 2026-11-10 19:58 UTC

[Charm | POP Art charm · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-pop-art) Hidden $0.36 0.73 coins $125 250 coins 342.5x 2026-11-10 18:31 UTC

[Charm | POP Art charm · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-pop-art) Hidden $0.36 0.73 coins $125 250 coins 342.5x 2026-11-10 16:35 UTC

[Charm | POP Art charm · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-pop-art) Hidden $0.36 0.73 coins $125 250 coins 342.5x 2026-11-10 16:35 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=small-present)

[P90 | Verdant Growth (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-verdant-growth-factory-new) Hidden $0.36 0.73 coins $1.52 3.04 coins 4.16x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC

[P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $0.36 0.73 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC

[Tec-9 | Ice Cap (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-ice-cap-factory-new) Hidden $0.36 0.73 coins $0.34 0.69 coins 0.95x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC

[P90 | Verdant Growth (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-verdant-growth-factory-new) Hidden $0.36 0.73 coins $1.52 3.04 coins 4.16x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC

[P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $0.36 0.73 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC

[Charm | Lil' SAS charm · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-sas) Hidden $0.36 0.73 coins $0.50 1 coins 1.37x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC

[P90 | Verdant Growth (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-verdant-growth-factory-new) Hidden $0.36 0.73 coins $1.52 3.04 coins 4.16x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC

[P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) [Moon1025](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Moon1025) $0.36 0.73 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC

[P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $0.36 0.73 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:50 UTC

[Glock-18 | Moonrise (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-moonrise-field-tested) Hidden $0.36 0.73 coins $0.22 0.44 coins 0.60x 2026-11-11 12:50 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $0.36 | 89.28% | 16 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed #d32ce6 0.0% restricted 3.0% #8847ff 5.0% covert 0.3% #87c7ff 0.1% Rare 5.3% Uncommon 0.5% #4b69ff 6.0% industrial 2.0% mil spec 5.0% consumer 72.8% best hit $270 (739.7x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.28 on average: an expected loss of $10.72 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt