--- title: "SMG Reserve case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "SMG Reserve ($42.40) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 13 items with odds, observed 1.51% over 20 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/smg-reserve rendered: 2026-11-11T21:27Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [SMG Reserve](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/smg-reserve) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · SMG Reserve A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/smg-reserve?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/smg-reserve?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/smg-reserve) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/smg-reserve?window=all) Price · $42.40 · 84.79 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $38.15 from 13 items Observed RTP, 30d · 1.51% · 20 openings, odds method Variance · 6.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 20 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.1% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 4 openings · below min 30 days · 20 openings · below min since tracking started · 20 openings · below min -0.5% 128.3% 257.0% **Small sample.** 20 openings and 1.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/smg-reserve?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/smg-reserve?window=7d) | 4 | 0.04% ±256.2 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/smg-reserve) | 20 | 1.51% ±114.6 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/smg-reserve?window=all) | 20 | 1.51% ±114.6 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 20 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [MP9 \| Wild Lily (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,638 3,277 coins | 4.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [StatTrak™ P90 \| Emerald Dragon (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-emerald-dragon-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $871 1,742 coins | 11.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [MP9 \| Bulldozer (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-bulldozer-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $478 956 coins | 12.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [MP7 \| Whiteout (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-whiteout-factory-new) | 1 in 77 | $367 733 coins | 12.5% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [P90 \| Astral Jörmungandr (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-astral-jormungandr-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $218 435 coins | 11.4% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [P90 \| Emerald Dragon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-emerald-dragon-factory-new) | 1 in 45 | $189 379 coins | 11.0% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [Souvenir P90 \| Run and Hide (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-p90-run-and-hide-factory-new) | 1 in 39 | $166 333 coins | 11.1% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [P90 \| Run and Hide (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-run-and-hide-field-tested) | 1 in 31 | $128 256 coins | 10.9% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [P90 \| Fallout Warning (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-fallout-warning-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $56.06 112 coins | 5.1% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [Souvenir MAC-10 \| Gold Brick (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mac-10-gold-brick-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $52.80 106 coins | 4.8% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [P90 \| Asiimov (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-asiimov-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $26.85 53.7 coins | 3.2% | 0 | 0.9 | — | | [UMP-45 \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $12.52 25.03 coins | 1.6% | 1 | 1.0 | 1.00× | | [UMP-45 \| Mudder (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-mudder-field-tested) | 70.6% | $0.01 0.03 coins | 0.0% | 19 | 14.1 | 1.35× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 20:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=smg-reserve) [UMP-45 | Mudder (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-mudder-field-tested) Hidden $42.40 84.79 coins $0.01 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-08 20:23 UTC [UMP-45 | Mudder (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-mudder-field-tested) Hidden $42.40 84.79 coins $0.01 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-08 20:23 UTC [UMP-45 | Mudder (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-mudder-field-tested) Hidden $42.40 84.79 coins $0.01 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-08 20:23 UTC [UMP-45 | Mudder (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-mudder-field-tested) [axel02legmail](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/axel02legmail) $42.40 84.79 coins $0.01 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-08 20:23 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $42.40 | 90.00% | 13 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 4.9% epic 0.5% restricted 6.5% mil spec 6.3% pink 3.3% industrial 3.5% covert 4.5% consumer 70.6% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt